[Albion] 7 Years Of Albion in the Premier League- Ceilings & Feelings

[Eeyore]

Below is a glossary of teams who have finished in the top ten of the Premier League since Brighton were promoted and how many times they have achieved it:

The 'Big 6' feature in every season apart from Chelsea being absent once. From this we conclude, with full evidence, that six positions are not available to aspiring clubs as the wealth of those teams cannot be matched. In the last two seasons Newcastle United have joined them (having been there once prior). It is fair to say that if they haven't yet, Newcastle United will soon join the elite group.

This means that, realistically, only three positions remain each season for other clubs. Now let's take a look.

Since Albion joined, 14 clubs have been relegated (EDIT: Not added this season- Luton Town makes the figure 15)

Of those 14. 4 have reached the top ten during their tenure of the last 7 seasons.

Of the current teams outside the 'Big 7' only West Ham United, Crystal Palace and Everton have been in the Premier League longer than Brighton. All three have flirted with relegation at different times

From this mind numbing number crunching we conclude that:

1) There is no such thing as an established Premier League club outside of the big 7. Aston Villa, West Ham United and Everton have the best opportunity to join that at present due to finances and, in Everton's case, a larger facility
2) Only three positions are available in objective terms to any other club than the big 7 in the top half of the league.

Where Brighton are concerned:

1) To have survived 7 seasons in the Premier League is well beyond expectation.
2) To have done so with stable finances makes this even more laudable
3) The Brighton model works as a basis of future proofing in the event of relegation
4) In crude financial terms, the ambition of becoming an established top ten Premier League club is not realistic. This would involve a financially pressured model that is not sustainable (see Leicester City). However, as an emotional aspiration- why not ?
5) A finish anywhere between 8th & 14th on a continual basis would be regarded as an ongoing success when measured against financial and circumstantial realities.
6) This season was another success

The problem for any fan is where we go from here. In real terms, we remain here and understand that no matter how much passion and 'ambition' there is, the facts remain. The ceiling remains in place, sometimes it may be broken, but the big club repairmen will always be along to fix it. A different approach is needed (hence the club model)

What I take away from this is the joy of knowing Albion did it. And may yet be a gremlin in the works again. But for now I think I'll just enjoy being at the top table while it lasts. And hopefully that will be for a while to come yet.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Below is a glossary of teams who have finished in the top ten of the Premier League since Brighton were promoted and how many times they have achieved it:

View attachment 182672

The 'Big 6' feature in every season apart from Chelsea being absent once. From this we conclude, with full evidence, that six positions are not available to aspiring clubs as the wealth of those teams cannot be matched. In the last two seasons Newcastle United have joined them (having been there once prior). It is fair to say that if they haven't yet, Newcastle United will soon join the elite group.

This means that, realistically, only three positions remain each season for other clubs. Now let's take a look.

Since Albion joined, 14 clubs have been relegated (EDIT: Not added this season)

View attachment 182671

Of those 14. 4 have reached the top ten during their tenure of the last 7 seasons.

Of the current teams outside the 'Big 7' only West Ham United and Crystal Palace have been in the Premier League longer than Brighton. Both have flirted with relegation at different times

From this mind numbing number crunching we conclude that:

1) There is no such thing as an established Premier League club outside of the big 7. Aston Villa, West Ham United and Everton have the best opportunity to join that at present due to finances and, in Everton's case, a larger facility
2) Only three positions are available in objective terms to any other club than the big 7 in the top half of the league.

Where Brighton are concerned:

1) To have survived 7 seasons in the Premier League is well beyond expectation.
2) To have done so with stable finances makes this even more laudable
3) The Brighton model works as a basis of future proofing in the event of relegation
4) The ambition of becoming an established top ten Premier League club is not realistic. This would involve a financially pressured model that is not sustainable (see Leicester City). However, as an emotional aspiration- why not ?
5) A finish anywhere between 8th & 14th on a continual basis would be regarded as an ongoing success when measured against financial and circumstantial realities.
6) This season was another success

The problem for any fan is where we go fro here. In real terms, we remain here and understand that no matter how much passion and 'ambition' there is, the facts remain. The ceiling remains in place, sometimes it may be broken, but the big club repairmen will always be along to fix it.

What I take away from this is the joy of knowing Albion did it. And may yet be a gremlin in the works again. But for now I think I'll just enjoy being at the top table while it lasts. And hopefully that will be for a while to come yet.

Brilliant analysis. Thanks for taking the time to do it. Confirms my prejudices.

Up the Albion!

 

[Machiavelli]

Below is a glossary of teams who have finished in the top ten of the Premier League since Brighton were promoted and how many times they have achieved it:

View attachment 182672

The 'Big 6' feature in every season apart from Chelsea being absent once. From this we conclude, with full evidence, that six positions are not available to aspiring clubs as the wealth of those teams cannot be matched. In the last two seasons Newcastle United have joined them (having been there once prior). It is fair to say that if they haven't yet, Newcastle United will soon join the elite group.

This means that, realistically, only three positions remain each season for other clubs. Now let's take a look.

Since Albion joined, 14 clubs have been relegated (EDIT: Not added this season)

View attachment 182671

Of those 14. 4 have reached the top ten during their tenure of the last 7 seasons.

Of the current teams outside the 'Big 7' only West Ham United and Crystal Palace have been in the Premier League longer than Brighton. Both have flirted with relegation at different times

From this mind numbing number crunching we conclude that:

1) There is no such thing as an established Premier League club outside of the big 7. Aston Villa, West Ham United and Everton have the best opportunity to join that at present due to finances and, in Everton's case, a larger facility
2) Only three positions are available in objective terms to any other club than the big 7 in the top half of the league.

Where Brighton are concerned:

1) To have survived 7 seasons in the Premier League is well beyond expectation.
2) To have done so with stable finances makes this even more laudable
3) The Brighton model works as a basis of future proofing in the event of relegation
4) The ambition of becoming an established top ten Premier League club is not realistic. This would involve a financially pressured model that is not sustainable (see Leicester City). However, as an emotional aspiration- why not ?
5) A finish anywhere between 8th & 14th on a continual basis would be regarded as an ongoing success when measured against financial and circumstantial realities.
6) This season was another success

The problem for any fan is where we go from here. In real terms, we remain here and understand that no matter how much passion and 'ambition' there is, the facts remain. The ceiling remains in place, sometimes it may be broken, but the big club repairmen will always be along to fix it.

What I take away from this is the joy of knowing Albion did it. And may yet be a gremlin in the works again. But for now I think I'll just enjoy being at the top table while it lasts. And hopefully that will be for a while to come yet.

Thanking you kindly. What an amazing few seasons: ninth, sixth, eleventh, the best in the club's history. This thread details what an achievement that is.

 

[dazzer6666]

TB/PB would dispute point 4………

 

[Eeyore]

TB/PB would dispute point 4………

Yes, but read between the lines.

The top seven clubs have achieved this through greater resources. Albion don't have such facility. Thus they develop a model which relies on constant change and churn but is aimed at building an upward trajectory.

In crude paper terms, and from historical data, the ambition is not achievable. This doesn't mean to say that a successful blueprint couldn't find a different way of achieving it. Which merely underlines just how much Albion have achieved and why they are not willing to budge on their approach.

 

[jackanada]

I think a lot of people got over excited by the top 10 ambition thing.
What we do know if that the bottom half of the table tends to be rather congested. If your expected results would give you say 48 points then 15 extra gets you right up to European contention (or top of the other 14/13) while 15 less could well see you relegated.
I'm rambling. Aiming to be top 10 actually means aiming to be safe from relegation even if suffering an unusual but not completely improbable amount of bad luck.

 

[Machiavelli]

I think a lot of people got over excited by the top 10 ambition thing.
What we do know if that the bottom half of the table tends to be rather congested. If your expected results would give you say 48 points then 15 extra gets you right up to European contention (or top of the other 14/13) while 15 less could well see you relegated.
I'm rambling. Aiming to be top 10 actually means aiming to be safe from relegation even if suffering an unusual but not completely improbable amount of bad luck.

I think a lot of football fans -- ours included -- expect a continual upward trajectory (and, more bizarrely, are of the view that they understand how to achieve this). We're one of the only clubs to have achieved that over the past 15 or so years. There comes a point when you hit a ceiling, and the OP is an impeccable illustration of this. The top six or seven or so are fixtures in the PL, all the rest are treading water or fighting for survival perhaps with the occasional sortie into the promised land.
We're challenging against clubs with bigger finances than us, and the key metric to predict how high up a team finishes in the table is player wages. We comfortably outperform that, and that's because of the model and the outstanding personnel in the club.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

'3) The Brighton model works as a basis of future proofing in the event of relegation'

Could OP expand a bit more on this 'conclusion' please, bearing in mind the TV money would dry up and attendances would collapse

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I think a lot of football fans -- ours included -- expect a continual upward trajectory (and, more bizarrely, are of the view that they understand how to achieve this). We're one of the only clubs to have achieved that over the past 15 or so years. There comes a point when you hit a ceiling, and the OP is an impeccable illustration of this. The top six or seven or so are fixtures in the PL, all the rest are treading water or fighting for survival perhaps with the occasional sortie into the promised land.
We're challenging against clubs with bigger finances than us, and the key metric to predict how high up a team finishes in the table is player wages. We comfortably outperform that, and that's because of the model and the outstanding personnel in the club.

All key facts.

That's why I get so exasperated when I hear (or read) people moaning about the fact we sold a couple of players for £150 million and 'didn't replace them', start threads about our chairman being 'dishonest', and of course the constant sniping at 'selfish' PBOBE who is on a massive ego trip.

FFS. This is what I'd expect from a pub (or classroom) full of palace fans. And if anyone has the temerity to comment they are accused of having no ambition.

Up the Albion.

 

[Perfidious Albion]

I would certainly agree with these points from the o/p
“
1) To have survived 7 seasons in the Premier League is well beyond expectation.
2) To have done so with stable finances makes this even more laudable
3) The Brighton model works as a basis of future proofing in the event of relegation
4) In crude financial terms, the ambition of becoming an established top ten Premier League club is not realistic. This would involve a financially pressured model that is not sustainable (see Leicester City). However, as an emotional aspiration- why not ?
5) A finish anywhere between 8th & 14th on a continual basis would be regarded as an ongoing success when measured against financial and circumstantial realities.
6) This season was another success”
(end of quote)

I wish the moaning minnies would disappear off and follow Chelsea if they demand top 6 success every year

 

[Simster]

Good analytical work there @Eeyore. It's fair to say that 8th-14th is where we need to aim to be, and what that gives us is a genuine chance of winning a cup, as well as the very occasional exceptional season such as the one we enjoyed in 22/23.

 

[Eeyore]

'3) The Brighton model works as a basis of future proofing in the event of relegation'

Could OP expand a bit more on this 'conclusion' please, bearing in mind the TV money would dry up and attendances would collapse

Of course.

Should Albion be relegated, and PBOBE once suggested that would be expected at some stage (to much chagrin), they would need to know that they could work on a sustained plan to return.

The club model is designed in such a way to allow for this and give the opportunity to invest in such a way that means that Albion wouldn't necessarily need to return at the first time of asking.

One of my closest friends is a Leeds United fan of 50 years standing. Proper Yorkshire lass. But rather than the usual hubris, is genuinely worried that not getting promoted this year will mean a terminal break up of the team due to financial pressures. I'm pretty confident Albion won't have the issue anywhere near as acutely due to the way the budget is structured.

 

[Guinness Boy]

'3) The Brighton model works as a basis of future proofing in the event of relegation'

Could OP expand a bit more on this 'conclusion' please, bearing in mind the TV money would dry up and attendances would collapse

While not the OP, I see he's responded without mentioning parachute payments. They are currently factored in I would think and explains why the club is against any regulation or law change that would see them removed (despite complaining about them when we were in the Championship IIRC).

"Attendances would collapse". I think that's honestly hyperbolic. We might lose a few Japanese tourists and two-team Timmys, and some away numbers would drop off, but we'd surely be challenging at the top end of the table. I enjoyed the two full Championship seasons under Hughton WAY more than the two full PL seasons under Potter (though, of course, some of that time was in lockdown restrictions). Others will too. Our average attendance the season we went up was 27,996, really only 3000 down on today, when some away teams brought fewer than 500.

 

[Commander]

Below is a glossary of teams who have finished in the top ten of the Premier League since Brighton were promoted and how many times they have achieved it:

View attachment 182672

The 'Big 6' feature in every season apart from Chelsea being absent once. From this we conclude, with full evidence, that six positions are not available to aspiring clubs as the wealth of those teams cannot be matched. In the last two seasons Newcastle United have joined them (having been there once prior). It is fair to say that if they haven't yet, Newcastle United will soon join the elite group.

This means that, realistically, only three positions remain each season for other clubs. Now let's take a look.

Since Albion joined, 14 clubs have been relegated (EDIT: Not added this season)

View attachment 182671

Of those 14. 4 have reached the top ten during their tenure of the last 7 seasons.

Of the current teams outside the 'Big 7' only West Ham United and Crystal Palace have been in the Premier League longer than Brighton. Both have flirted with relegation at different times

From this mind numbing number crunching we conclude that:

1) There is no such thing as an established Premier League club outside of the big 7. Aston Villa, West Ham United and Everton have the best opportunity to join that at present due to finances and, in Everton's case, a larger facility
2) Only three positions are available in objective terms to any other club than the big 7 in the top half of the league.

Where Brighton are concerned:

1) To have survived 7 seasons in the Premier League is well beyond expectation.
2) To have done so with stable finances makes this even more laudable
3) The Brighton model works as a basis of future proofing in the event of relegation
4) In crude financial terms, the ambition of becoming an established top ten Premier League club is not realistic. This would involve a financially pressured model that is not sustainable (see Leicester City). However, as an emotional aspiration- why not ?
5) A finish anywhere between 8th & 14th on a continual basis would be regarded as an ongoing success when measured against financial and circumstantial realities.
6) This season was another success

The problem for any fan is where we go from here. In real terms, we remain here and understand that no matter how much passion and 'ambition' there is, the facts remain. The ceiling remains in place, sometimes it may be broken, but the big club repairmen will always be along to fix it. A different approach is needed (hence the club model)

What I take away from this is the joy of knowing Albion did it. And may yet be a gremlin in the works again. But for now I think I'll just enjoy being at the top table while it lasts. And hopefully that will be for a while to come yet.

Someone should have presented this to RDZ early last week.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

While not the OP, I see he's responded without mentioning parachute payments. They are currently factored in I would think and explains why the club is against any regulation or law change that would see them removed (despite complaining about them when we were in the Championship IIRC).

"Attendances would collapse". I think that's honestly hyperbolic. We might lose a few Japanese tourists and two-team Timmys, and some away numbers would drop off, but we'd surely be challenging at the top end of the table. I enjoyed the two full Championship seasons under Hughton WAY more than the two full PL seasons under Potter (though, of course, some of that time was in lockdown restrictions). Others will too. Our average attendance the season we went up was 27,996, really only 3000 down on today, when some away teams brought fewer than 500.

My statement may or may not be hyperbolic. Your's may or may not be pure conjecture

 

[Guinness Boy]

My statement may or may not be hyperbolic. Your's may or may not be pure conjecture

Mine's backed up with facts. Avg attendance last time round 3-4k down on this season with visiting teams including Burton, Barnsley, Rotherham, Wigan and Reading.

 

[Hotchilidog]

Below is a glossary of teams who have finished in the top ten of the Premier League since Brighton were promoted and how many times they have achieved it:

View attachment 182672

The 'Big 6' feature in every season apart from Chelsea being absent once. From this we conclude, with full evidence, that six positions are not available to aspiring clubs as the wealth of those teams cannot be matched. In the last two seasons Newcastle United have joined them (having been there once prior). It is fair to say that if they haven't yet, Newcastle United will soon join the elite group.

This means that, realistically, only three positions remain each season for other clubs. Now let's take a look.

Since Albion joined, 14 clubs have been relegated (EDIT: Not added this season)

View attachment 182671

Of those 14. 4 have reached the top ten during their tenure of the last 7 seasons.

Of the current teams outside the 'Big 7' only West Ham United and Crystal Palace have been in the Premier League longer than Brighton. Both have flirted with relegation at different times

From this mind numbing number crunching we conclude that:

1) There is no such thing as an established Premier League club outside of the big 7. Aston Villa, West Ham United and Everton have the best opportunity to join that at present due to finances and, in Everton's case, a larger facility
2) Only three positions are available in objective terms to any other club than the big 7 in the top half of the league.

Where Brighton are concerned:

1) To have survived 7 seasons in the Premier League is well beyond expectation.
2) To have done so with stable finances makes this even more laudable
3) The Brighton model works as a basis of future proofing in the event of relegation
4) In crude financial terms, the ambition of becoming an established top ten Premier League club is not realistic. This would involve a financially pressured model that is not sustainable (see Leicester City). However, as an emotional aspiration- why not ?
5) A finish anywhere between 8th & 14th on a continual basis would be regarded as an ongoing success when measured against financial and circumstantial realities.
6) This season was another success

The problem for any fan is where we go from here. In real terms, we remain here and understand that no matter how much passion and 'ambition' there is, the facts remain. The ceiling remains in place, sometimes it may be broken, but the big club repairmen will always be along to fix it. A different approach is needed (hence the club model)

What I take away from this is the joy of knowing Albion did it. And may yet be a gremlin in the works again. But for now I think I'll just enjoy being at the top table while it lasts. And hopefully that will be for a while to come yet.

This is an outstanding post and thank you for patience in compiling it. The difficulties of achieving a top six finish are considerable for a club of our resources. I did think it was interesting that Barber mentioned cup competitions in his presser yesterday, I see that as our most likely route to a European spot in the near future, not to mention the actual glory of finally adding some major silverware to our trophy cabinet.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Mine's backed up with facts. Avg attendance last time round 3-4k down on this season with visiting teams including Burton, Barnsley, Rotherham, Wigan and Reading.

Your's are based on a team on the way up. That always generates a buzz. A team newly relegated? Well, neither of us knows, and let's hope we don't have to find out for a very long time

 

[Javeaseagull]

Your's are based on a team on the way up. That always generates a buzz. A team newly relegated? Well, neither of us knows, and let's hope we don't have to find out for a very long time

Fans follow a winning team. Pretty sure we would win more in the Championship than the PL!

 

[Eeyore]

I've updated it a bit. Of course, Everton have been there all the while we have been present.

So three teams outside the Big 7 ever present. 15 teams relegated.

It seems churlish that Crystal Palace fans have had so much beef with their club when, pound for pound, it could be argued that they have been successful when everything is relatively measured. Everton and West Ham have come closer to the drop.