7 (seven) points

[HalfaSeatOn]

Last season took 10 points from next 4 matches so a big ask to maintain that level but can soon make up any shortfall as hit winless streak in following 6 matches generating 3 points only

 

[BUTTERBALL]

We will never have a better chance of reaching the prem automatically.

 

[Finchley Seagull]

Last season took 10 points from next 4 matches so a big ask to maintain that level but can soon make up any shortfall as hit winless streak in following 6 matches generating 3 points only

Agreed but, as you say, it was a poor run after that. We basically need 15 points from next 8 games to have two points a game at halfway point. That would represent an improvement on last year and with three consecutive losses following last season.

 

[Stat Brother]

This only gets real when the 'can't catch us' thread pops up here.

 

[Sussex Nomad]

I think the top two are trying to do a great escape. Top two will be top two come May. Please feel free to quote me end of season.

 

[Brovion]

Is it too early for the "Team's that can't catch us" thread?

 

[warmleyseagull]

70 points to go to get the 101 points total I predicted on the "is it to early to predict points tally thread"
Well on course to achieve that


21wins
7 draws
3 defeats

I can buy that - of remaining 31 games, say 22 with clean sheets running on current average of 70% (have uplifted season to date average of 66.6% slightly for Duffy effect). That might realise 18 wins, 4 0-0s = 58 points, total 89. The 5 games conceded so far have realised 5 points so let's say a point per game when concede in the other 9, total 98. Pretty close to yours. Scary, isn't it?

 

[warmleyseagull]

Is it too early for the "Team's that can't catch us" thread?

Perhaps but I am really looking forward to the daily 'points required' threads, so we can argue again at length whether we need to beat the average of the third team's points or achieve the average of the second's...

 

[portslade seagull]

Our 3pt gap to 3rd is like 4pts with the difference in GD

 

[Thunder Bolt]

We have the same points after 15 games as last season but a +6 GD improvement...

Last season after 15 games, 5 out of the top 6 on Nov 3 went on to be in the top 6 on May 3rd.
Birmingham fell away to 10th. Sheff Weds went from 8th (on Nov 3rd) to 6th on May 3rd.

View attachment 79051

Funnily enough the team with the biggest goal difference there, had to go up via the playoffs.

 

[nwgull]

Last season took 10 points from next 4 matches so a big ask to maintain that level but can soon make up any shortfall as hit winless streak in following 6 matches generating 3 points only

Nitpicking slightly, it was a run of 7 winless games: Derby, QPR, Midds, Brentford, Wolves, Ipswich, Rotherham.

We were on 44 points (from 26) after that run and should be able to better that this season.

 

[Notters]

I assume that table is wrong, as Leeds and Wednesday aren't first and second?

 

[chaileyjem]

Its remarkable how after 15 games you get a good sense of the likely 3 to be promoted. Here's the three promoted teams standing in the Champ after 15 games for the last 5 years...
the top 2 for the last 4 out of 5 years have been promoted. gulp.

2015/16
Hull were (1st)
Burnley (2)
Boro (4)

NB: we returned to the top of the table a few games later...

2014/15
Watford (1)
Bournemouth (2)
Norwich (6)

2013/14
Burnley (1)
Leicester (2)
QPR (3)

2012/13
Palace (1)
Cardiff (3)
Hull (4)

2011/12
Southampton (1)
West Ham (2)
Reading (16th !) - of course the exception...

 

[London Irish]

It's that 3 points between 2nd and 3rd I care about more.

Yes, and you can narrow that down to us and Norwich really - and 4 points is great with Kayal out though, wonderful work by Hughton

 

[ferring seagull]

Nitpicking slightly, it was a run of 7 winless games: Derby, QPR, Midds, Brentford, Wolves, Ipswich, Rotherham.

We were on 44 points (from 26) after that run and should be able to better that this season.

But this was substantially accounted for by the horrendous list of injuries we had at that time, we didn't even have a left back alternative, and that really screwed us last year.

 

[chaileyjem]

Nitpicking slightly, it was a run of 7 winless games: Derby, QPR, Midds, Brentford, Wolves, Ipswich, Rotherham.

We were on 44 points (from 26) after that run and should be able to better that this season.

hopefully but will we better or replicate the 36 points from 17 games after that poor run ?

 

[HP Seagull]

But this was substantially accounted for by the horrendous list of injuries we had at that time, we didn't even have a left back alternative, and that really screwed us last year.

While I do agree with you, I think it was the loss of March that had the greatest impact on that run.

Following his injury we had almost no creativity going forward until Knockaert came in.

 

[TWOCHOICEStom]

I'm equally glad and angry.

On one hand, look at that table. We just SMASHED one of the favourites for automatic promotion 5-0. There's no reason to believe we can't maintain our form and widen that gap between 2nd and 3rd.

On the other hand I'm FURIOUS. Furious that those *******s in blue and white are making me believe again.

*******s.

 

[Stat Brother]

I'm equally glad and angry.

On one hand, look at that table. We just SMASHED one of the favourites for automatic promotion 5-0. There's no reason to believe we can't maintain our form and widen that gap between 2nd and 3rd.

On the other hand I'm FURIOUS. Furious that those *******s in blue and white are making me believe again.

*******s.

It's the hope that kills us.

 

[fat old seagull]

Play-offs are no good to us this season. There's no way we'll be able to keep this squad together after the summer. In fact, we'll do well to keep it intact after January. It's shit or bust this season, or a major rebuild.

Just as I was feeling happy...