[Albion] 5 points from 12 remaining & we are in Europe

[Moshe Gariani]

Average price with the Bookies for Top 6 finish is 1/9.

This 90% combined probability of finishing 5th or 6th (or 4th or 3rd!) is reflected in the predictive models available online.

(Hopefully this is one of my probability based offerings that doesn't get pooh-poohed by people claiming that bookie odds don't offer the best available estimate of real event probability and should be disregarded as they are only a function of weight of money wagered....)

 

[chaileyjem]

Here's the run in , fixtures, goal difference and max points...

 

[Wozza]

I think we might only get 4 more points. Spurs could well get 6. Eek.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Spurs will lose at Leeds & I doubt they'll get much against Brentford on Saturday so they'll finish 8th.
Villa can get to 63 maximum. With our GD 63 will get us 6th. Villa lose to Liverpool and we beat Saints then we are uncatchable in 6th.

Brentford will be up for it against Spurs. Win that and Villa lose to Liverpool and they are a point behind them both going into the last day of the season, with a superior GD. Yes they’ve got Man City to play but they’ve still got a very slim chance of Europe so they should be motivated and a draw on the final day could be enough.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I think we might only get 4 more points. Spurs could well get 6. Eek.

Wouldn't that be a kick in the balls!!

 

[Napper]

Champions league is on if we beat Newcastle

I think we might only get 4 more points. Spurs could well get 6. Eek.

cant see villa and spurs both getting 6

if they dont then we only need 3

 

[Brovion]

Meh. People going on about getting into the Conference League like it's some great achievement. I remember back in 1997 we wanted to stay out of it!

 

[Triggaaar]

Average price with the Bookies for Top 6 finish is 1/9.

This 90% combined probability of finishing 5th or 6th (or 4th or 3rd!) is reflected in the predictive models available online.

That is more about the bookies being greedy than about probability. We're 11/2 to finish outside the top 6. That's not 1 on 10.

 

[Wozza]

Champions league is on if we beat Newcastle

cant see villa and spurs both getting 6

if they dont then we only need 3

I'm very much after Europa League, not EL Conference.

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Quick predictor:

Liverpool:

Beat Leicester
Beat Villa
Beat Saints

Us:

Draw with Newcastle
Beat Southampton
Lose to City
Draw with Villa

Villa:

Lose to Liverpool
Draw with us

Spurs:

Draw with Brentford
Draw with Leeds - who will need something on the final day

4 points from the next two games guarantees Europa League (sixth) if Villa lose to Liverpool and Spurs dont beat Brentford

 

[Sheebo]

Quick predictor:

Liverpool:

Beat Leicester
Beat Villa
Beat Saints

Us:

Draw with Newcastle
Beat Southampton
Lose to City
Draw with Villa

Villa:

Lose to Liverpool
Draw with us

Spurs:

Draw with Brentford
Draw with Leeds - who will need something on the final day

4 points from the next two games guarantees Europa League (sixth) if Villa lose to Liverpool and Spurs dont beat Brentford


View attachment 160918

With our GD if both don’t win their next games, 3 points seals it. Won’t be a swing of 17 goals+

 

[NorthstandRacoon]

If (sorry when... we make Europe) I feel this is massive for the club and the City of Brighton & Hove and FAR exceeds promotion to the PL. Regardless if no club has ever done this before I think an open-top bus tour of the City of Brighton and Hove is in order. By the players not fans on a tourist open-top bus that is!

Haha great wishful t! But you are right revthe city etc

 

[dadams2k11]

Who says we beat Saints? People going on like it's a foregone conclusion we will win.

They have no pressure on them now and will play with freedom and still have some talent in their team regardless of league position.

I think we beat Newcastle as they play a high press and we love a team to play like that. We battered them at the Amex, but couldn't find the net.

 

[nwgull]

I predict that a single win will be enough with our GD. Villa are unliley to win at Anfield and Spurs will drop at least 2 points.

 

[studio150]

Fully expecting European qualification to have been secured just before 4pm on Sunday.

 

[birthofanorange]

I predict 2 more wins and a draw - that should do nicely.

 

[A1X]

I can only assume you lot haven’t been paying attention.

We’re more likely to beat City than Southampton.

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

I believe that we can beat City and lose to Southampton. It’s what we do.

 

[Originunknown]

Newcastle have good form in evening games this season, we don't tend to however we've got belief and confidence back.
Southampton feels like a potential banana skin, depends if they want to put a performance in or they've checked out mentally.
So unpredictable but another 4-6 points will be magic.

 

[junior]

Brighton being Brighton, we'll probably loose against Southampton