35 years of Championship Leaders after 20 games - downhill from here?

[Shuggie]

Leaders after 20 games since it became 3 points for a win in 1981/82

• 14 of 16 leaders with 42 or more points achieved automatic promotion(88%)
• 24 of 34 leaders after 20 games achieved automatic promotion (71%)
• Unfortunately 31 of 34 leaders (91%) have performed worse over the remaining games

I was lucky enough to be at Derby yesterday - cracking goals but the injuries are worrying. Off to Loftus Road on Tuesday then back to USA and getting up at 6:30am to listen on Seagulls player. It has been a privilege to see five games in this amazing season ... you don't know how lucky you are.

Happy Holidays to the good folk of NSC!




PS If I get time I might look at whether the decline tends to be over the last few games as leaders coast over the line or whether there is a more worrying tendency. Anyway, it looks like the hard work starts here.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Leaders after 20 games since it became 3 points for a win in 1981/82

• 14 of 16 leaders with 42 or more points achieved automatic promotion(88%)
• 24 of 34 leaders after 20 games achieved automatic promotion (71%)
• Unfortunately 31 of 34 leaders (91%) have performed worse over the remaining games

I was lucky enough to be at Derby yesterday - cracking goals but the injuries are worrying. Off to Loftus Road on Tuesday then back to USA and getting up at 6:30am to listen on Seagulls player. It has been a privilege to see five games in this amazing season ... you don't know how lucky you are.

Happy Holidays to the good folk of NSC!

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PS If I get time I might look at whether the decline tends to be over the last few games as leaders coast over the line or whether there is a more worrying tendency. Anyway, it looks like the hard work starts here.

Hats off to that man! Great work.

 

[gripper stebson]

That second graphic as really interesting.. and worrying!

 

[Stat Brother]

That second graphic as really interesting.. and worrying!

why?

24 of the 34 final league positions is either first or second.

I'm having that all day long.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Can you adjust your graphs and tables once we've played 23 games? I don't think we've played the hardest teams yet so your figures are slightly misleading.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Luckily we've got a lot of the tricky aways played - Wednesday, Reading, Leeds, Ipswich, Burnley, Derby etc.

 

[CaptainDaveUK]

Brilliant graphics / info. Although it also shows 9 out of 23 teams with 42 points or less currently in top spot don't get automatic promotion. We are doing amazingly well but it is still so in the balance. Personally I have been saying for some time that I think we will go up but it really could go to the wire, Boro away / playoff final. :-/

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Great stats - thanks.

However, I can't see a previous season where the top few were so close at this stage. Nor have we had a season where the prize for promotion was so huge.

Boro, Derby and others will throw money at players in January to help bolster their chances. We could almost see the form book reset by the end of the transfer window with virtually new teams in some cases.

(I still think we'll walk into the play-offs, but if we want auto promotion, we'll need to buy players)

 

[looney]

Luckily we've got a lot of the tricky aways played - Wednesday, Reading, Leeds, Ipswich, Burnley, Derby etc.

This would explain why we dont have more points and why the second half of the season will be more skewed in our favour barring injuries and signings.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Can you adjust your graphs and tables once we've played 23 games? I don't think we've played the hardest teams yet so your figures are slightly misleading.

"Misleading"? All statistics are potentially misleading.

I particularly enjoyed the statement on the Derby County forum to the effect that the current league table simply proves what a poor division we are playing in. Twenty games and nobody has yet beaten Brighton? What better proof do you want that every team is rubbish and Derby County are certs for automatic promotion?

This argument obviously applies to Middlesbrough as well.

Were loose.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Can you adjust your graphs and tables once we've played 23 games? I don't think we've played the hardest teams yet so your figures are slightly misleading.

Who are the hardest teams?
Boro are the only ' big gun ' we haven't played yet unless you are suggesting that QPR and Brentford are two of the toughest games we will have.

 

[SweatyMexican]

It's a shame we haven't played any of the top teams yet, which would make these stats more reliable.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Who are the hardest teams?
Boro are the only ' big gun ' we haven't played yet unless you are suggesting that QPR and Brentford are two of the toughest games we will have.

I was being a little facetious there in line with what our rival supporters have been posting on message boards. As far as i'm concerned, we are favorites for the Championship title and promotion although bookies disagree with me and seemingly base their odds on money spent rather than performance and points: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

Our remaining hard fixtures are, in my opinion, Boro home & away, Brentford away, QPR away, Hull away, Cardiff away & Burnley & Derby at home. If we only lose those games, we'll have lost the same amount as Bournemouth did last season (and I think we'd still finish top as well).

 

[Blue3]

Most second half of any teams season are tighter than the first half with more teams grinding out results with more susensions and injured players

Look at any Season with ten games to go No team will be playing free flowing football top or bottom they will all be tight games lots of draws and games won by the odd goal

 

[father_and_son]

Another classic case of mis-using statistics...

Teams that are top of the league after twenty games are clearly at the peak of form (that's what being top of the league means), therefore it's not at all surprising that their form from game 21 onwards is worse. FFS, it is almost impossible for it to be better, otherwise they wouldn't be top of the league in the first place.

Therefore the oh-so-dramatic, 31 of 34 have had worse form after the 20th game is not actually surprising, in fact, it's f*cking obvious!

 

[DavePage]

With so many still finishing 1st or 2nd it also indicates that the teams below also have that dip in points scored, so wheres the problem?

 

[perseus]

That second graphic as really interesting.. and worrying!

Charlton 1993-94: http://www.statto.com/football/teams/charlton-athletic/1993-1994/results

I'm not sure what went wrong?!

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id...6AEISjAJ#v=onepage&q=Charlton 1993-94&f=false

 

[Shuggie]

Charlton 1993-94: http://www.statto.com/football/teams/charlton-athletic/1993-1994/results

I'm not sure what went wrong?!

From the link you provided ...

They were 2nd on 5th March
Lost to Man Utd in FA Cup 6th round on 12th March
Lost 8 of their next 9

Played 60 games in total that year (6 matches in Anglo-Italian Cup before Christmas)

Guess they ran out of steam

Chris, for God's sake send the U18s to Hull for FAC3 ... pretty please!

 

[perseus]

If we are winning at half time I would always fancy our chances unless we have been outplayed.

PS: Still putting some dosh aside in case of Wembley. Not booking my holidays early.

 

[perseus]

From the link you provided ...

They were 2nd on 5th March
Lost to Man Utd in FA Cup 6th round on 12th March
Lost 8 of their next 9

Played 60 games in total that year (6 matches in Anglo-Italian Cup before Christmas)

Guess they ran out of steam

Chris, for God's sake send the U18s to Hull for FAC3 ... pretty please!

Charlton were not ready for promotion. Like us in 2011-12. Unable to invest in team strengthening.