[News] 2030 and Electric cars.

[clapham_gull]

The air quality where I live in London is appalling this time of year, so I'm fully supportive of any attempt to alleviate it.

There is much gnashing of teeth in boroughs further out. Understandably but also selfishly.

My view on cars ?

Electric or otherwise there are now simply too many of them in London. Something has to give.

 

[Super Steve Earle]

There's a Community Electric Car Club being set up in Henfield. Meeting at the Henfield Village Hall tonight. Might have a place for someone like me who can't afford a new EV, wouldn't risk buying a second hand EV and can't have charging capability at home.

 

[Horses Arse]

There's a Community Electric Car Club being set up in Henfield. Meeting at the Henfield Village Hall tonight. Might have a place for someone like me who can't afford a new EV, wouldn't risk buying a second hand EV and can't have charging capability at home.

Now that's the way forward! Would be interesting to see how that progresses

 

[Super Steve Earle]

Now that's the way forward! Would be interesting to see how that progresses

It was interesting. Hybrid system designed for people with no transport to dial up a car for appointments, shopping etc either with a volunteer driver or available for a friend or neighbour to drive them. Includes cars with disabled access and wheelchair carrying capability. Alternatively could substitute it for your occasional use second car. Available soon on monthly subscription with hourly hire charge. Cars will be based by village Hall and leisure centre. Available to book with multiple options from App/Online or phone and payment options all the way down to cash/cheque to avoid exclusion issues.

 

[Stat Brother]

I bet the maths is off, but I'd bet even more the overarching message is 1000% correct.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Why should the clever propogandists of the oil industry want to delay/prevent the uptake of renewable electric power and everything it powers ?
Well imagine if you were paid £40,000 every day since the year zero (2023 as I write) you still would not have as much money as the oil companies made in PROFIT, not turnover, in just the last 3 quarter.

Or you could put it another way and say that, for all the goods and services that have any input from the oil companies, every man, woman and child in the world has contributed £4 each to the oil companies' profits.

 

[GOM]

I would enthusiastic converts to the first paragraph! I don't mean to pick on you @GOM but you mentioned that "a mere 190 miles, any reasonable EV will do that with ease without the need to stop and charge" but then said "my real world range drops from about 240 to around 200" - That's where I start to less trust what I'm told by the enthusiast because I don't think your 200 mile range covers 190 "with ease", that 10 mile tolerance would give me a lot of stress! Maybe I'm missing your point here and I'm really not trying to trip you up but personally I'm looking for balance in a discussion - There are some things for some people that are problematic about EVs right now and it's useful to embrace that and help people weigh things up more factually.

No problem, pick on me if you wish debate is healthy. I agree with you really, an EV is not for everyone at the moment, especially if you can't charge cheaply at home or on-street close by. I never think of myself as an enthusiastic convert, although possibly I am, it's difficult not to be once you have converted.
What I object to are people quoting and believing the same FUD they are told over and over without any other research. so as I said I try to add some balance when that happens. Nobody is claiming that EVs are going to solve the climate crisis, that are just part of the growing jigsaw where renewable energy, (not carbon neutral with the pretend carbon capture) will provide the biggest solution in all it's uses.

 

[GOM]

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...wan-atkinson-is-wrong-about-electric-vehicles

"In a widely shared comment piece for the Guardian, comedian Rowan Atkinson said he felt “duped” by the green claims about electric vehicles (EVs).

In support of his contention, however, Atkinson repeats a series of repeatedly debunked talking points, often used by those seeking to delay action on the climate crisis......."

Just to add to the debunking of Mr. Atkinsons claims for those that are interested in balancing the argument

 

[beorhthelm]

Just to add to the debunking of Mr. Atkinsons claims for those that are interested in balancing the argument

the Atkinson article seems to have triggered a lot of response, they do protest too much.

 

[GOM]

the Atkinson article seems to have triggered a lot of response, they do protest too much.

Not exactly protesting is it to correct the inaccuracies in a story, which in fact the Guardian that initially printed it, has itself has also corrected Atkinson's article due to the 'errors' in the claims.

 

[Audax]

Time to bring this thread back to the surface, as Toyota have claimed to have made a major breakthrough in solid state batteries:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/04/toyota-claims-battery-breakthrough-electric-cars

The claim is that we may be seeing these in cars as early as 2027. I'd take that with a dose of salt, but even if we add a few years to that number they could be in cars on the market before 2030. And for those who don't want to read the article, Toyota's claim is that they'll be able to produce solid state batteries that could provide 745 mile range, 10 minute charge time, and all that at half the cost to produce.

If they even manage half of that claim, I think we're still looking at a game changing development.

 

[dazzer6666]

The electric car ‘revolution’ is a disaster before it’s begun

Politicians are forcing electric cars on a public that doesn’t want them

www.telegraph.co.uk

12ft

12ft.io

 

[chickens]

The electric car ‘revolution’ is a disaster before it’s begun

Politicians are forcing electric cars on a public that doesn’t want them

www.telegraph.co.uk

12ft

12ft.io

I’m not convinced that this isn’t just more oil industry sponsored FUD.

While I’m perfectly willing to accept that electric vehicles aren’t as labour intensive as Petrol/Diesel engined vehicles, and I’m also perfectly willing to believe that the car industry is having a severe downturn (when you impoverish huge swathes of your population the market for big ticket products shrinks) I’m not convinced that this is the fault of electric cars.

I’ve looked at numerous electric models with a friend recently, and each had lead times running to several months. It quickly became clear that she wouldn’t be getting into anything this side of November, with 4 wheel drive options being on an even longer lead time.

The lack of affordability is the main problem, and that’s due to wider economic problems, not a lack of willingness on the part of drivers.

You’d have to be daft as a Dorries to go back to the combustion engine once you’ve swooped around in an electric car.

 

[Audax]

The electric car ‘revolution’ is a disaster before it’s begun

Politicians are forcing electric cars on a public that doesn’t want them

www.telegraph.co.uk

There's a few inaccuracies in that article (although no where near as bad as the Mr Bean one). For one, there's a lot of assumptions being presented as fact (including in the headline) without any supporting evidence beyond the "demand is weaker than expected". But keep in mind, VW will be making that decision to scale back production based on global demand for their vehicles, not UK-only demand - so the link between VW's decision and what the public in the UK want in terms of EVs is tenuous at best.

I'd also be interested in seeing how "punchy" VW's original estimations were. How much of the scale back is because of a (potentially temporary) dip in demand for EVs and how much is because they simply got their original forecasts wrong and predicted too high. Did they, possibly, underestimate the ability for Tesla to ramp up production and therefore take a larger market share (Tesla for Q2 2023 reported an 83% increase in deliveries year-on-year). Full financial results for Tesla are due later this year.

Looking at data on car sales in the UK (latest figures from May this year):

- Petrol sales up 5.3% year-on-year
- Diesel sales down 24.4% yoy
- EV sales up 58.7% yoy
- PHEV sales up 23% yoy
- Petrol Hybrid sales up 36.8% yoy
- Diesel Hybrid sales down 8.7% yoy

Not sure those UK-specific numbers back up the Telegraph article...

 

[dsr-burnley]

Time to bring this thread back to the surface, as Toyota have claimed to have made a major breakthrough in solid state batteries:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/04/toyota-claims-battery-breakthrough-electric-cars

The claim is that we may be seeing these in cars as early as 2027. I'd take that with a dose of salt, but even if we add a few years to that number they could be in cars on the market before 2030. And for those who don't want to read the article, Toyota's claim is that they'll be able to produce solid state batteries that could provide 745 mile range, 10 minute charge time, and all that at half the cost to produce.

If they even manage half of that claim, I think we're still looking at a game changing development.

That's not going to encourage people to spend £30k on one of the "soon-to-be-obselete" electric cars.

 

[Audax]

That's not going to encourage people to spend £30k on one of the "soon-to-be-obselete" electric cars.

Doubt it. Smart people wanting to make the shift to EV now will do the same as I did 3 years ago: go for the leasing route. I leased my Zoe on a 4 year term, it's due to go back to the finance company Sept next year. From there it'll go into the second hand market and be bought by someone who can't afford to go new.

Those who can afford to go new would currently be advised (and I don't think the Toyota news changes that) to go with temporary lease, purely and simply because the tech is moving so fast. When I replace my Zoe next year, I'll either lease again (another 4 year term, hopefully putting me in a position to plump for a nice new solid-state battery EV in 2028) or I'll go into the second hand market (but still upgrade from the Zoe - eg Tesla Model 3's that were originally leased are now appearing in the second hand market and the prices aren't horrendous).

 

[dazzer6666]

There's a few inaccuracies in that article (although no where near as bad as the Mr Bean one). For one, there's a lot of assumptions being presented as fact (including in the headline) without any supporting evidence beyond the "demand is weaker than expected". But keep in mind, VW will be making that decision to scale back production based on global demand for their vehicles, not UK-only demand - so the link between VW's decision and what the public in the UK want in terms of EVs is tenuous at best.

I'd also be interested in seeing how "punchy" VW's original estimations were. How much of the scale back is because of a (potentially temporary) dip in demand for EVs and how much is because they simply got their original forecasts wrong and predicted too high. Did they, possibly, underestimate the ability for Tesla to ramp up production and therefore take a larger market share (Tesla for Q2 2023 reported an 83% increase in deliveries year-on-year). Full financial results for Tesla are due later this year.

Looking at data on car sales in the UK (latest figures from May this year):

- Petrol sales up 5.3% year-on-year
- Diesel sales down 24.4% yoy
- EV sales up 58.7% yoy
- PHEV sales up 23% yoy
- Petrol Hybrid sales up 36.8% yoy
- Diesel Hybrid sales down 8.7% yoy

Not sure those UK-specific numbers back up the Telegraph article...

I do wonder if (some) manufacturers are tying to sabotage the whole EV thing……

 

[dsr-burnley]

Doubt it. Smart people wanting to make the shift to EV now will do the same as I did 3 years ago: go for the leasing route. I leased my Zoe on a 4 year term, it's due to go back to the finance company Sept next year. From there it'll go into the second hand market and be bought by someone who can't afford to go new.

Those who can afford to go new would currently be advised (and I don't think the Toyota news changes that) to go with temporary lease, purely and simply because the tech is moving so fast. When I replace my Zoe next year, I'll either lease again (another 4 year term, hopefully putting me in a position to plump for a nice new solid-state battery EV in 2028) or I'll go into the second hand market (but still upgrade from the Zoe - eg Tesla Model 3's that were originally leased are now appearing in the second hand market and the prices aren't horrendous).

Certainly true that leasing will reduce the risk - or rather, it will pass the risk onto the lease company. Which leads to wondering what this new generation of electric vehicles, if it appears to be coming to pass, will do to the lease costs. On the face of it, if the second hand electric leased vehicle is going to lose say £10k of its second hand value, then you would expect the lease company to want to charge that to the customer.

Time will tell. I doubt it will make much difference in the short term, but once these new generation vehicles are within a year or two of mass distribution, the price of the old ones may be very interesting.

 

[CheeseRolls]

That's not going to encourage people to spend £30k on one of the "soon-to-be-obselete" electric cars.

What do you think the market will look like for second hand combustion engine vehicles in 2030?

Also lets bring the debate forward from 2030 and have it now. "Why the government should be subsidising rural petrol stations to aid the elderly and vulnerable who have to travel great distances to fuel their essential vehicles"

 

[kjgood]

Yes waiting to see an EV that would be suitable for towing my large touring caravan, keep reading the reviews, but see a load of fun in rocking up to a supercharger in motorway services with 7.1 metres of caravan hitched up behind me.