[Albion] 20 points dropped for winning positions - not as bad as it seems....

[Reddleman]

After the Man United result there has been a lot of talk about our record of dropping points from winning positions. The total stands at 20 and led me thinking about why the number was so high. Then I looked at how that figure was reached and was strangely reassured.

The figure is made up of 12 points dropped when defeated from a winning position and 8 points from drawing after being ahead. Details below and when you look at them rather than just focusing on the headline figure life isn’t so bad.

Defeats after being ahead:

1. Man United (Home) - absolutely ridiculous game where we got a penalty overturned by VAR and they scored after the final whistle. Never mind hitting the woodwork 5 times.
2. Southampton (Home) - absolutely scandalous VAR decision for the penalty
3. Leicester (Home) - of the four defeats this is the hardest to take in that it was our own doing at the end and a flat second half.
4. Man United (away) - denied an absolute stonewall penalty at 1-1.

So of the four defeats from winning position VAR played a huge part in three of them and all of those were against teams in the top 3.

Draws after being ahead:

1. West Brom (Home) - poor second half performance, got what we deserved
2. Wolves (Home) - after the first half this felt like a point gained not two points dropped. The comeback could have been one of the most pivotal moments of the season.
3. West Ham (Away) - yes it felt disappointing at the time but seeing the West Ham season to date a point away there isn’t a bad result.
4. Burnley (Away) - yes, two points dropped, but come full time we were taking a battering and felt like a point earned.

So, of the four draws above only two actually felt like a disappointment and one of them was a good point in the context of the season.

Overall I think looking this up made me feel a lot better. The headline will be 20 points dropped but the detail behind it tells a story that isn’t nearly so bad.

What are peoples thoughts?

 

[blue-shifted]

After the Man United result there has been a lot of talk about our record of dropping points from winning positions. The total stands at 20 and led me thinking about why the number was so high. Then I looked at how that figure was reached and was strangely reassured.

The figure is made up of 12 points dropped when defeated from a winning position and 8 points from drawing after being ahead. Details below and when you look at them rather than just focusing on the headline figure life isn’t so bad.

Defeats after being ahead:

1. Man United (Home) - absolutely ridiculous game where we got a penalty overturned by VAR and they scored after the final whistle. Never mind hitting the woodwork 5 times.
2. Southampton (Home) - absolutely scandalous VAR decision for the penalty
3. Leicester (Home) - of the four defeats this is the hardest to take in that it was our own doing at the end and a flat second half.
4. Man United (away) - denied an absolute stonewall penalty at 1-1.

So of the four defeats from winning position VAR played a huge part in three of them and all of those were against teams in the top 3.

Draws after being ahead:

1. West Brom (Home) - poor second half performance, got what we deserved
2. Wolves (Home) - after the first half this felt like a point gained not two points dropped. The comeback could have been one of the most pivotal moments of the season.
3. West Ham (Away) - yes it felt disappointing at the time but seeing the West Ham season to date a point away there isn’t a bad result.
4. Burnley (Away) - yes, two points dropped, but come full time we were taking a battering and felt like a point earned.

So, of the four draws above only two actually felt like a disappointment and one of them was a good point in the context of the season.

Overall I think looking this up made me feel a lot better. The headline will be 20 points dropped but the detail behind it tells a story that isn’t nearly so bad.

What are peoples thoughts?

Agree in the sense that we shouldn't read too much into some of the crazy refereeing type games.

Disagree in the sense that we've played better in first halves than second a few too many times this season. Whether the cause is fitness, nerves creeping in, tactics or a statistical blip, is up for discussion

Didn't we cough up a lead to Sheff Utd as well?

 

[Stato]

The question for me is how opponents were allowed the opportunities to recover from going behind, rather than the specific circumstances around their goals. The next step for this, mostly very young, group is to learn to turn one goal leads into two goal leads. At present, our approach to going a goal up has generally resulted in the invitation of pressure from the opposition, rather than a consolidation of our advantage. Only twice, home and away against Newcastle have we got the next goal after taking the lead.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Not about winning positions but I think the 10 points dropped in 4 games vs West Brom and Palace are the biggest factor in where we are in the table this season.

In another, luckier year we'd have got all 12 and be hovering around 'top 10'.

 

[Acker79]

20 seemed low to me, because I remember seeing a post in 'the other 14' twitter feed that showed us having dropped 18 points a while back. So I think they may also make the argument that dropping points would include:

Everton away
After going behind, we scored to go level, then conceded to lose 4-2 dropping the point we had at 1-1.

Tottenham away
After going behind, we scored to go level, then conceded to lose 2-1 dropping the point we had at 1-1.

I can see the argument that it would be like including every game because we 'have' a point at 0-0, too, but in these two games we actually scored to be in a position to earn a point, which we then let slip.

 

[Gwylan]

Didn't we cough up a lead to Sheff Utd as well?

No, we equalised about three minutes from the end

 

[blue-shifted]

No, we equalised about three minutes from the end

Ahh yes ... don't they all merge into one when you're watching on TV

 

[Sheebo]

Good analyses - West Brom / Leicester and West Ham were the main ones we ****ed up in - but it will happen every single fecking season. Sky etc have some cool stats but they really over egg them these days. And stats can be manipulated to prove most things. Anyone outside the top 6 down to about 18th will take the lead and not win a fair few times. Especially if a lower team take the lead v a big good team like we did Sunday - it doesn’t mean a huge amount in my opinion tbh.

 

[Alan Cundle]

https://www.soccerstats.com/halftime.asp?league=england

We are 9th in the 1st half tables, which shows our generally poorer displays in the second half - (6th in the 1st Half Away table!). Shame the ref blows for half-time......

 

[el punal]

It’s football, innit?

How many games have we come from behind and drawn, how many games have we held onto a lead and won? The fact is that you can throw any number of stats into the mix. Ultimately it comes down to that old football adage - some you win, some you lose.

 

[Seasidesage]

I think it is exactly as serious a problem as it first appears. Yes, I take the point about VAR and we do get the shitty end of the stick too often but we do also invite pressure way too often in the 2nd half of games, fail to take advantage of our good moments and fail to score from good chances. 20 points is beyond bad luck and circumstance and its no use pretending otherwise. Potter IMO has done a great job but to make progress next season we need to do better protecting leads if we are to move up the table.

 

[GT49er]

https://www.soccerstats.com/halftime.asp?league=england

We are 9th in the 1st half tables, which shows our generally poorer displays in the second half - (6th in the 1st Half Away table!). Shame the ref blows for half-time......View attachment 135654

Interesting stat. Strangely, we're no lower than 15th. on the second half stats.

So, 9th. in the first half, 15th. in the second half - and 16th. overall in the 'real' table. Doesn't seem to add up really ........................

 

[tronnogull]

Surely this is a misleading stat. You can't drop points from a winning position if you didn't get in a winning position first. Getting in a winning position is a good thing ! Not dropping points from a winning position is a bad thing if you never got in a winning position. Also, in any drawn game someone has to score first.

Having said that I do believe that our game management late in the game has been poor in quite a few games. Not game management as in take the ball into the corner and essentially stop playing which I think should be taken out of the game somehow but game management as in staying focussed and keeping decent possession.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Surely this is a misleading stat. You can't drop points from a winning position if you didn't get in a winning position first. Getting in a winning position is a good thing ! Not dropping points from a winning position is a bad thing if you never got in a winning position. Also, in any drawn game someone has to score first.

Having said that I do believe that our game management late in the game has been poor in quite a few games. Not game management as in take the ball into the corner and essentially stop playing which I think should be taken out of the game somehow but game management as in staying focussed and keeping decent possession.

I agree with you, but another year under the less experienced players will help us no end.

Strength of squads always comes into play 2nd half especially if your forced to has to get a result.

It would be nice to score 3 goals in the last 5 mins, but that's never going to happen!!

 

[TugWilson]

This is simple , Man Utd at home score 2-2 after disallowed pen , added time 4mins no extra added time but they get a corner on 96 mins which results in 100th min pen . Reverse game needs no explanation short of us being cheated , we get the pen and go 2-1 against 10 men . WBA away was a " if i hadn`t seen it " we were robbed of Lewis" goal , if that had stood we would have gone on to win . 9 points right there .