20 Games Left - Points Prediction

[warmleyseagull]

The fixture list has worked fairly kindly as none of the last 8 games are against auto promotion contenders, mostly against teams who are likely to have little to play for.

 

[scousefan]

I think we could easily lose away at Huddersfield, Brentford, Leeds and Villa and at home to Newcastle. I can't believe that we will lose all of those, but we could easily lose any/some of them. That should be ok, so long as we don't get a long run of draws. This does suggest how important the next couple of weeks may be, especially with a depleted squad at the moment.

 

[dwayne]

I think we could easily lose away at Huddersfield, Brentford, Leeds and Villa and at home to Newcastle. I can't believe that we will lose all of those, but we could easily lose any/some of them. That should be ok, so long as we don't get a long run of draws. This does suggest how important the next couple of weeks may be, especially with a depleted squad at the moment.

I know we don't have a great record against Brentford but we should easily beat them. Hogan is on his way and even with him in the team they are the 17th best home team in the league this season!!

Why is everyone writing that game off !?!

 

[matski_98]

4 loses all season? That'd be 9 in 2 seasons!

I know. If we get promoted next season is going to be a massive shock to the system!

 

[sir albion]

Extremely optimistic for sure, unrealistic too.

I think we will lose more than just the one, but I can't see any other team on there who we'd lose to.
If I HAD to pick 3 losses, it'd be Leeds, Brentford and Villa (who might be in a playoff push).

No we will lose more as we'll be up with 5 to spare and be on our honeymoon

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

I'd written Brentford off a few weeks ago but they are on a real slide at the moment and i doubt Hogan will be in the team when we play them.

 

[Rugrat]

Pick the bones out of this ... points are likely to be 3-6 too high but I work on basis that upsets will hit teams evenly ... all about probabilities

 

[Ernest]

What about Leeds and Huddersfield's next 19 games ? That is more important then we know what number of points required

 

[Caveman]

The fixture list has worked fairly kindly as none of the last 8 games are against auto promotion contenders, mostly against teams who are likely to have little to play for.

Yet, that can change with just under half the season to go.

Villa away could mean them needing to make e play offs?

 

[warmleyseagull]

I'd written Brentford off a few weeks ago but they are on a real slide at the moment and i doubt Hogan will be in the team when we play them.

Went AWOL at this stage last season recorded our first win by more than a goal in Feb against them

 

[warmleyseagull]

Yet, that can change with just under half the season to go.

Villa away could mean them needing to make e play offs?

I did say mostly - agree AV could well have something to play for but we shouldn't have, except whether 1st or 2nd.

 

[StonehamPark]

January
Cardiff (H) - 3

Feb
Hudds (A) - 1
Brentford (A) - 1
Burton (H) - 3
Ipswich (H) - 3
Barnsley (A) - 1
Reading (H) - 3
Newcastle (H) - 1

March
Forest (A) - 3
Rotherham (A) - 3
Derby (H) - 1
Leeds (A) - 0

April
Blackburn (H) - 3
Birmingham (H) - 3
QPR (A) - 1
Wolves (A) - 3
Wigan (H) - 3
Norwich (A) - 1
Bristol (H) - 3

May
Villa (A) - 1

1 down, 19 to go.

 

[StonehamPark]

Only 1 point behind schedule so far, with 6-8 points eligible to drop by end of season.
All is well.

 

[StonehamPark]

January
Cardiff (H) - 3

Feb
Hudds (A) - 1
Brentford (A) - 1
Burton (H) - 3
Ipswich (H) - 3
Barnsley (A) - 1
Reading (H) - 3
Newcastle (H) - 1

March
Forest (A) - 3
Rotherham (A) - 3
Derby (H) - 1
Leeds (A) - 0

April
Blackburn (H) - 3
Birmingham (H) - 3
QPR (A) - 1
Wolves (A) - 3
Wigan (H) - 3
Norwich (A) - 1
Bristol (H) - 3

May
Villa (A) - 1

---

Puts on 98 points.
Obviously very optimistic.

However, I see it that we can potentially lose 6-8 points from the above wins/draws.

16 games left.
26-30 points required.

1.6 - 1.9 PPG required.

Or 8 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses.
9 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses should also do it.

 

[Notters]

16 games left.
26-30 points required.

1.6 - 1.9 PPG required.

Or 8 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses.
9 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses should also do it.

Are you not at all worried about Huddersfield? !

 

[StonehamPark]

Are you not at all worried about Huddersfield? !

As long as we get 8-9 wins, not worried about anyone.
But they are creeping up, so always worth keeping a watchful eye on.

 

[djlazyness]

Ipswich (H) - 3
Barnsley (A) - 3
Reading (H) - 0
Newcastle (H) - 3

March
Forest (A) - 3
Rotherham (A) - 3
Derby (H) - 3
Leeds (A) - 0

April
Blackburn (H) - 3
Birmingham (H) - 3
QPR (A) - 3
Wolves (A) - 3
Wigan (H) - 3
Norwich (A) - 0
Bristol (H) - 3

May
Villa (A) - 1

Total = 37

Grand total = 101

 

[Sussex Nomad]

As long as we get 8-9 wins, not worried about anyone.
But they are creeping up, so always worth keeping a watchful eye on.

Crept up being the operative couple of words. Crept up by three points in ten games.

 

[Finchley Seagull]

Are you not at all worried about Huddersfield? !

Personally, I am concerned about Huddersfield but it is beginning to look like they are our main rivals. Whatever we get from the next 16 games, Huddersfield realistically need to get 7 more points over the rest of the season and it is hard to see them keeping this form up forever. A few weeks ago, Derby looked in amazing form, Villa before them but both have dropped off now, as have Leeds with a couple of defeats so hopefully Huddersfield will have a couple of poor results, like we have over the last month.

If you look at teams below Huddersfield, Reading now need 8 more points (considering GD) than us from one less game and Leeds at least 10 more from one less game. It is a tough ask with only 15/16 games left.

 

[saafend_seagull]

92 points will be needed I think, however can quickly change if Huddersfield get a couple of injuries.

9 wins, 1 draw.

Home games: w6, d2 (draws Newcastle and Derby)
Away games: w2, d4, l2 (wins Rotherham, forest)