I'm pretty certain the UK will be in full lockdown by mid November. Which is annoying. My work cancels leave in lockdowns which mean no overtime shifts, which we all rely on. So effectively my pay gets cut down to about 80% but I still have to go in for 14 hour shifts while I watch self employed people do cash in hand work and claim the government grants or people basically having a paid holiday. It's all rather frustrating. That probably sounds selfish. So be it.
I'm not convinced we need lock downs. would be much better to isolate vulnerable people and let the economy and life go on as normal for the majority. Using a steam roller to crack a nut. IMO. I know that is an unpopular view with many.
It's not that it's unpopular, it's simply impractical and unworkable...
1. The vulnerable number 12-15m. Even if essentially imprisoning this number of people was morally acceptable - and it's not - that would be close to a quarter of the population removed from most economic activity. The economy certainly wouldn't "go on as normal" with that massive contraction in demand.
2. The vulnerable can't be isolated. Many of them live with others who come under your "life goes on as normal" part of the plan. Your plan would have the virus running rampant and would be taken home to many of these vulnerable.
3. Tens of millions of low-risk people being exposed to the rampant virus which will happen with "life going on as normal" will equate to a substantial number of sick people requiring hospitalisation and also significant death. Not everyone who is low risk has a good outcome and when you multiple those percentages up across such a large number of people, you get a lot of bad outcomes. For those that don't die, "long Covid" may bring long-term health issues that creates a big drag on the NHS.
I'll be honest - I'm not sold on this just yet.