Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

The Clamp · Mar 11, 2020

Triggaaar said:
Yeah, but you'll (hopefully) suffer no more than one cough and be straight on here to say 'I told you so'.

Why would I do that, when lots of people are likely to get seriously ill or die from this virus? I’m in a very low risk group so if I do contract the virus, it’s likely I’ll not feel it too much. However, people will get rather ill so why would I gloat?
And why are you accusing me of something that hasn’t actually happened yet? Very odd.

¡Cereal Killer! · Mar 11, 2020

I read earlier that the UK now have the resources to test 10,000 people per day as opposed to the 1500 per day currently so will expect to see daily cases rise dramatically in the coming days.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51814874

Swansman · Mar 11, 2020

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Morning, squire.

First, yes, there is no 'official' advice to self isolate. But there won't be until it becomes compulsory to self isolate....which it won't (we are not Italy or China).

How can you be so certain of this? Neither China or Italy have done it before. Like stated everywhere I know very little about England, but I'd still be willing to eat my hat if there is not a major lockdown if (or rather when) cases reach the same numbers as in Italy.

Harry Wilson's tackle · Mar 11, 2020

DumLum said:
No mention of the NHS or the doctors and nurses on the front line in your bottom line?

They should go to work unless they can't, but it is quite possible that they may be required to be screened every day so they don't come into contact with old/at risk of death patients if they test positive. That ought to be sufficient. There will be standing procedures in place, anyway, for staff, based on nature of an illness (even a cold) and the type of patient with whom they come into contact.

What may happen, however, is wholesale enforced 'self isolation' of staff when the virus kicks in, driven politically by the minister of health. Yes the minister has advisors but they include the likes of Patric Vallance who, when I was a lad, did research on blood vessels, and has no greater insight into viral pathology than anyone else with access to a medical library. His skill set includes charisma, an ability to schmooze, and a trusted organizational overview (from his time at GSK). I work in a hospital (on a research floor, but...) and have not received any advice yet. Apart from wash my hands.

I just received the club advice from BHA. It said it will be supplying antibacterial handwash. For the love of god, coronavirus is a fecking virus, not a bacterium. Would you give catfood to your gold fish?

I am reminded of the first episode of Hitch hiker's guide to the Galaxy. To parphrase, Ford is in a pub and has announced the world is about to end. The landlord asks 'Should I put a paper bag over my head?'
Ford says 'If you like'.
Landlord says 'Will it help?'.
Ford says '......no'.

Wozza · Mar 11, 2020

"Case numbers since outbreaks began in several countries have tracked a ~33% daily rise. This is as true for UK, France, Germany as Italy; the latter is simply further down the path."

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

CheeseRolls · Mar 11, 2020

beorhthelm said:
been clear for some time from the dispersal of infections that there must be more than being reported. but cant track non-reporting illness.

(well not yet, might be able to with some clever interpretation of data)

One modelling method I have seen starts with the mortality rate in countries/regions where testing has been widespread (5-6%) and from that extrapolates the likely numbers infected. The next step is to take the known period from incubation to death estimated at 3 weeks and apply the exponential spread of the virus, to get a figure of likely infected people at a point in time.

Notters · Mar 11, 2020

atomised said:
I was confused by the increase to 382 this morning as I believed 2pm was the daily announcement schedule

Wozza said:
Me too.

373 is still the official figure on this: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

They explained this on the news, it's because the Welsh made a separate announcement yesterday evening. :shrug:

Harry Wilson's tackle · Mar 11, 2020

Moshe Gariani said:
”Delay” is nothing to do with making time for a vaccine or reducing the number of people infected.

Sorry, I am not sure what point you are trying to make here. My point was that if doing X (anything, washing your hands, sucking on a Polo mint, living in the shed) causes a delay in the spread (and whether it would do so is moot, of course) what effect can we anicipate a delay in the spread would have? I agree that a delay in the spread will have no effect on the total number of people infected (that was one of my points) unless the delay is sufficiently long to allow someone to invent a vaccine, so that those yet to be affected end up not being affected.

Wozza · Mar 11, 2020

Notters said:
They explained this on the news, it's because the Welsh made a separate announcement yesterday evening.

Ah, thanks. New figures must be due any minute....

Solid at the back · Mar 11, 2020

456. +83. Biggest jump so far?

atomised · Mar 11, 2020

Notters said:
They explained this on the news, it's because the Welsh made a separate announcement yesterday evening.

Thanks. So clearly whoever it was who picked up on the small increase was barking up the wrong tree

Deleted member 22389 · Mar 11, 2020

Solid at the back said:
456. +83. Biggest jump so far?

It is the biggest jump, could be worse when you compare to other countries.

sparkie · Mar 11, 2020

Kalimantan Gull said:
That's going to be a lot of holiday inns needing a deep clean.

One thing that keeps striking me is just how many people who come out of an infected area have the infection. I'm sure proportionally it indicates that the virus is far more widespread, which would make sense as most people out and about are young with mild symptoms that don't need testing - but are tested as soon as they land on a plane from Milan. Same thing with so many politicians and organisational leaders declared positive, they are people actually getting regularly tested, so the virus is showing up with them. Take the head of Poland army being positive when there's less than 50 cases in the country. Odds on him being 1 of just 50?

So I think it is everywhere but many people are so mildly affected that they don't get tested. But then as soon as it hits an old and infirm person - bang they're in intensive care, over half of them seriously afflicted. And the hospitals can't cope with that volume of patients, the virus is very fatal for many of them and others could have been saved if they could have got the necessary attention.

So I'm just making sure that all my elderly relatives are getting food delivered or bought for them and are staying as isolated as feasible. Cheltenham week is a godsend as when it's on I can't move many of them away from in front of the telly at the best of times!

Good precautions. Just be aware that the virus may be on the delivered food packaging or any mail items.

Triggaaar · Mar 11, 2020

The Clamp said:
Why would I do that, when lots of people are likely to get seriously ill or die from this virus?

Well you could get it, and not suffer, at a time that lots of people aren't dying from the virus.

However, people will get rather ill so why would I gloat?
And why are you accusing me of something that hasn’t actually happened yet? Very odd.

You've misinterpreted what I've posted. I didn't actually realise you'd moved from the 'just the flu' camp, to the 'this is very serious' camp.

Bakero · Mar 11, 2020

bashlsdir said:
It is the biggest jump, could be worse when you compare to other countries.

Spain had similar figures and a similar jump 4 days ago.

Wozza · Mar 11, 2020

bashlsdir said:
It is the biggest jump, could be worse when you compare to other countries.

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/show...rus-Covid-19&p=9273308&viewfull=1#post9273308

Swansman · Mar 11, 2020

bashlsdir said:
It is the biggest jump, could be worse when you compare to other countries.

Unfortunately "could be worse" and "will be worse" seems pretty closely knit together.

CheeseRolls · Mar 11, 2020

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
They should go to work unless they can't, but it is quite possible that they may be required to be screened every day so they don't come into contact with old/at risk of death patients if they test positive. That ought to be sufficient. There will be standing procedures in place, anyway, for staff, based on nature of an illness (even a cold) and the type of patient with whom they come into contact.

What may happen, however, is wholesale enforced 'self isolation' of staff when the virus kicks in, driven politically by the minister of health. Yes the minister has advisors but they include the likes of Patric Vallance who, when I was a lad, did research on blood vessels, and has no greater insight into viral pathology than anyone else with access to a medical library. His skill set includes charisma, an ability to schmooze, and a trusted organizational overview (from his time at GSK). I work in a hospital (on a research floor, but...) and have not received any advice yet. Apart from wash my hands.

I just received the club advice from BHA. It said it will be supplying antibacterial handwash. For the love of god, coronavirus is a fecking virus, not a bacterium. Would you give catfood to your gold fish?

I am reminded of the first episode of Hitch hiker's guide to the Galaxy. To parphrase, Ford is in a pub and has announced the world is about to end. The landlord asks 'Should I put a paper bag over my head?'
Ford says 'If you like'.
Landlord says 'Will it help?'.
Ford says '......no'.

Idiots what they should have said was the handwash they are supplying is 60% plus alcohol and therefore likely to inhibit the virus. This would have kept the pedants happy and introduced a fun new drinking game for young daredevils!

Kalimantan Gull · Mar 11, 2020

beorhthelm said:
been clear for some time from the dispersal of infections that there must be more than being reported. but cant track non-reporting illness.

(well not yet, might be able to with some clever interpretation of data)

What they will do afterwards is randomised tests to find out how many people have antibodies to covid. Then they will know how many people were infected

The Clamp · Mar 11, 2020

Triggaaar said:
Well you could get it, and not suffer, at a time that lots of people aren't dying from the virus.

You've misinterpreted what I've posted. I didn't actually realise you'd moved from the 'just the flu' camp, to the 'this is very serious' camp.

Wow. You really do just not understand most of what is written on this board, do you.
I’m sorry to go to insults Trig, but you really are a ****ing idiot.

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