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[Politics] Brexit - 9 years on, time for a poll ?

What should we do ?

  • Rejoin the EU

  • Rejoin the Customs Union

  • Renegotiate the Brexit deal we have but remaining outside the CU

  • Renegotiate a harder Brexit deal

Results are only viewable after voting.






B

Brian Munich

teH lulZ
Jul 7, 2008
562
Randy McNob said:
I don't think it's that easy, people believe it's some revolving door you can just enter and leave as you wish.

If you're a euro-sceptic nation the door is closed, sorry. All the time our media shoe horn Farage, Tice front and centre and keep the Brexit candle burning you can forget it
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By what metric do you say that we're a euro-sceptic nation? YouGov have consistently done polls since we actually left the EU 5 years ago, and there's a steady downwards trajectory of the opinion that we were right to leave the EU. The latest poll suggested only 30% think that we were right to leave.
 


jcdenton08

jcdenton08

Joel Veltman Fan Club
NSC Patron
Oct 17, 2008
16,091
Brian Munich said:
By what metric do you say that we're a euro-sceptic nation? YouGov have consistently done polls since we actually left the EU 5 years ago, and there's a steady downwards trajectory of the opinion that we were right to leave the EU. The latest poll suggested only 30% think that we were right to leave.
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I was a remainer and still firmly pro-EU, but the EU does have a number of downsides, it’s certainly not perfect. And many of the larger nations do subsidise the smaller ones. I wanted reform.
 








B

Brian Munich

teH lulZ
Jul 7, 2008
562
jcdenton08 said:
I have no idea what this means
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You said the UK was euro sceptic, so I asked what metric you base this on. In this context, a metric is a quantifiable measure - ie a poll. As per my previous post, the YouGov poll indicates that only 30% of the country remain Euro Sceptic on the basis that they think Brexit was a bad move. Your personal reservations don't change the fact that 30% is <50% - hence we are not a euro-sceptic country.
 










Pavilionaire

Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
31,456
Randy McNob said:
Yep, but it won't be because our political elite don't have the appetite to do it anytime soon, it's mainly because the EU wouldn't want us back as a disillusioned Euro sceptic nation. Until we have flushed away the Farage-ist populist movement completely it'll never happen. And we couldn't simply rejoin as before, the Germany++ brilliant deal we had before, which delivered 20+ years of continuous growth, we threw in bin. We only get back in if we ditched the pound and accepted Schengen. Never gonna happen. The only feasible way back would be a special arrangement like Norway or Canada have but specially tailored for the UK. At a guees I would imagine a FTA arrangement which meant keeping the the Pound and we could also rejoin the CU, no seat at the table i.e. rule takers, and we would have to re-instate freedom of movement - that's non negotiable. It will take 5-10 years min just to prime the public and even longer before we got back
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All of the above sounds plausible until, that is, you factor in the geopolitics. Not enough thought is given to what the EU itself has gained and lost because of Brexit.

I believe the UK and the EU are both weaker politically because of the Brexit split viz a viz relations with the global superpowers, i.e. China, Russia, USA and - now - India. I also think that the triangle dynamic of UK, Germany and France acted a something of a safety net, in that with France and Germany running the show there is always a danger of a split or rift developing, and if that happens the whole project could unravel.

The UK brings with it links to countries sympathetic to the EU, like Canada and Australia, plus it has long-standing links with India. I think the EU is doing a good job of fostering their own relations with all three, but the UK could help these relationship get taller, wider, deeper.

There is also the argument that as the EU grows and takes in more countries from the East the influence of the Western nations diminishes. Bringing the UK back in will counter-balance that dynamic.

Then there is also the military aspect. There has been talk of an EU army for many years but it has always been at arms length because of NATO. Clearly, any breakdown in NATO, or any European peacekeeping force will be facilitated by the UK coming back into the fold if personnel and armaments are crossing the channel.

All of the candidate countries bar Turkey are from former communist countries, and policing the Georgian and Turkish borders would certainly present a challenge militarily.

Arguably, an EU military would be able to help with the issue affecting all of us - inward migration from outside the EU. I can't see it would make the problem any worse.

The bottom line is - just like the Ukraine - the EU will want security guarantees that the UK will commit the the project. That will revolve around what "sovereignty" the UK is willing to give up, on freedom, security, justice, but again how has that sovereignty worked out since we left on border controls (chaos) and in the courts (huge backlog). Is accepting Schengen really a big deal now we have biometric passports? The only condition that is controversial is Economic and Monetary Union, but Denmark doesn't use the Euro so I don't think letting us have the pound will be a dealbreaker.
 


M

Me Atome

Active member
Mar 10, 2024
144
Pavilionaire said:
All of the above sounds plausible until, that is, you factor in the geopolitics. Not enough thought is given to what the EU itself has gained and lost because of Brexit.

I believe the UK and the EU are both weaker politically because of the Brexit split viz a viz relations with the global superpowers, i.e. China, Russia, USA and - now - India. I also think that the triangle dynamic of UK, Germany and France acted a something of a safety net, in that with France and Germany running the show there is always a danger of a split or rift developing, and if that happens the whole project could unravel.

The UK brings with it links to countries sympathetic to the EU, like Canada and Australia, plus it has long-standing links with India. I think the EU is doing a good job of fostering their own relations with all three, but the UK could help these relationship get taller, wider, deeper.

There is also the argument that as the EU grows and takes in more countries from the East the influence of the Western nations diminishes. Bringing the UK back in will counter-balance that dynamic.

Then there is also the military aspect. There has been talk of an EU army for many years but it has always been at arms length because of NATO. Clearly, any breakdown in NATO, or any European peacekeeping force will be facilitated by the UK coming back into the fold if personnel and armaments are crossing the channel.

All of the candidate countries bar Turkey are from former communist countries, and policing the Georgian and Turkish borders would certainly present a challenge militarily.

Arguably, an EU military would be able to help with the issue affecting all of us - inward migration from outside the EU. I can't see it would make the problem any worse.

The bottom line is - just like the Ukraine - the EU will want security guarantees that the UK will commit the the project. That will revolve around what "sovereignty" the UK is willing to give up, on freedom, security, justice, but again how has that sovereignty worked out since we left on border controls (chaos) and in the courts (huge backlog). Is accepting Schengen really a big deal now we have biometric passports? The only condition that is controversial is Economic and Monetary Union, but Denmark doesn't use the Euro so I don't think letting us have the pound will be a dealbreaker.
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You appear to be saying that the EU wants us more than we want them. Interesting.
 




Pavilionaire

Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
31,456
Me Atome said:
You appear to be saying that the EU wants us more than we want them. Interesting.
Click to expand...
I focused on the EU side of things in that post and didn't talk about what the UK stands to gain. But no, as a unitary state we need the EU more than they need us.

But they do need us to reach their full potential and meet ongoing geopolitical challenges from a position of strength.

I suspect when Starmer goes to Washington next week the extent of our post-Brexit isolation will be laid bare. I do not expect it to go well, and the only positive I can see coming out of it is that it might put to bed the bullshit and long since dead concept that the UK and the USA still have "a Special Relationship", so that we can finally begin to move on from that concept as a country.

We mustn't forget that one of the arguments for Brexit was that once free of the EU yolk we would be able to pursue a free trade deal with the USA. Well that was a lie, it never happened under 2 separate presidents and looking at the proposed US $500 billion deal for Ukraine's rare earth minerals you don't need to be a rocket scientist to work out any trade deal with Trump's USA will have us over a barrel like a navy whore.

And to be honest, all of this was predictable 9 years ago at the time of the Referendum. With Trump running for The White House, emboldened Putin 2 years on from walking into Crimea and taking it over unchallenged and all 3 major UK parties in a mess the future was not looking bright in 2016. And so it has proved.

I'll go further and predict the next 4 years will make that look like a tea party. Trump and Putin are getting madder as they get older, China is poised to do something militarily and the environment will accelerate its demise as everybody "drills baby drills" to get all this "cheap energy" just so we can afford to pay to defend ourselves from one another.

We couldn't have picked a worse time to cut ourselves off, and I think Trump will find his isolationist policy will have disastrous consequences for his country.

To me it looks like there will only be a reset after something truly catastrophic happens somewhere in the world. I really hope I'm wrong.
 
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Is it PotG?

Is it PotG?

Thrifty non-licker
Feb 20, 2017
26,325
Sussex by the Sea
Pavilionaire said:
I focused on the EU side of things in that post and didn't talk about what the UK stands to gain. But no, as a unitary state we need the EU more than they need us.

But they do need us to reach their full potential and meet ongoing geopolitical challenges from a position of strength.

I suspect when Starmer goes to Washington next week the extent of our post-Brexit isolation will be laid bare. I do not expect it to go well.

And to be honest, all of this was predictable 9 years ago at the time of the Referendum. With Trump running for The White House, emboldened Putin 2 years on from walking into Crimea and taking it over unchallenged and all 3 major UK parties in a mess the future was not looking bright in 2016. And so it has proved.

I'll go further and predict the next 4 years will make that look like a tea party. Trump and Putin are getting madder as they get older, China is poised to do something militarily and the environment will accelerate its demise as everybody drills baby drills to get all this "cheap energy" just so we can afford to pay to defend ourselves from one another.

We couldn't have picked a worse time to cut ourselves off, and I think Trump will find his isolationist policy will have disastrous consequences for his country.

To me it looks like there will only be a reset after something truly catastrophic happens somewhere in the world.
Click to expand...
I feel a lot better and happier after reading that.

Onwards and upwards.
 


WATFORD zero

WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
28,507
Pavilionaire said:
I focused on the EU side of things in that post and didn't talk about what the UK stands to gain. But no, as a unitary state we need the EU more than they need us.

But they do need us to reach their full potential and meet ongoing geopolitical challenges from a position of strength.

I suspect when Starmer goes to Washington next week the extent of our post-Brexit isolation will be laid bare. I do not expect it to go well, and the only positive I can see coming out of it is that it might put to bed the bullshit and long since dead concept that the UK and the USA still have "a Special Relationship", so that we can finally begin to move on from that concept as a country.

We mustn't forget that one of the arguments for Brexit was that once free of the EU yolk we would be able to pursue a free trade deal with the USA. Well that was a lie, it never happened under 2 separate presidents and looking at the proposed US $500 billion deal for Ukraine's rare earth minerals you don't need to be a rocket scientist to work out any trade deal with Trump's USA will have us over a barrel like a navy whore.

And to be honest, all of this was predictable 9 years ago at the time of the Referendum. With Trump running for The White House, emboldened Putin 2 years on from walking into Crimea and taking it over unchallenged and all 3 major UK parties in a mess the future was not looking bright in 2016. And so it has proved.

I'll go further and predict the next 4 years will make that look like a tea party. Trump and Putin are getting madder as they get older, China is poised to do something militarily and the environment will accelerate its demise as everybody "drills baby drills" to get all this "cheap energy" just so we can afford to pay to defend ourselves from one another.

We couldn't have picked a worse time to cut ourselves off, and I think Trump will find his isolationist policy will have disastrous consequences for his country.

To me it looks like there will only be a reset after something truly catastrophic happens somewhere in the world. I really hope I'm wrong.
Click to expand...

Another excellent detailed and specific analysis of the situation which will get a one line reply from extremely stupid people incapable of meaningful debate, thinking that they are being 'smart' :dunce:

Case rests m'lud :lolol:
 
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Rdodge30

Rdodge30

Well-known member
Dec 30, 2022
1,024
WATFORD zero said:
Another excellent detailed and specific analysis of the situation which will get a one line reply from extremely stupid people incapable of meaningful debate, thinking that they are being 'smart' :dunce:

Case rests m'lud :lolol:
Click to expand...

Just what colour is that kettle there my old pot?
 


Is it PotG?

Is it PotG?

Thrifty non-licker
Feb 20, 2017
26,325
Sussex by the Sea
WATFORD zero said:
Another excellent detailed and specific analysis of the situation which will get a one line reply from extremely stupid people incapable of meaningful debate, thinking that they are being 'smart' :dunce:

Case rests m'lud :lolol:
Click to expand...
I disagree.

Life is too short to go around staring at your shoes fearing what might happen next week/year.

Unlike posts on here, life is not about editing but getting on with what you have and enjoying each day to the max.

I find it all far more pleasant, and far easier to get on. It's not advice, just an approach.
 


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