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[Misc] Near-Earth Asteroids



Hugo Rune

Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
24,418
Brighton
Zeberdi said:
I’m not an astronomer so can’t say that it has NO chance of impact but the risks are high enough not to dismiss the possibility out of hand according to NASA and the European Space Agency.

The links I posted in the OP and follow up post all discuss planetary defence systems and I specifically linked to info about DART so no sensationalist headlines here!

Another here

www.nationalgeographic.com

This asteroid may hit Earth in 2032. Don't panic—scientists have a plan.

Space agencies have systems in place to spot, track, and forecast the future orbits of potentially hazardous asteroids.
www.nationalgeographic.com www.nationalgeographic.com

I would add another interesting snippet that the size of 2024 y4 is at best a very broad estimate from 40-300 metres because until scientists know what the surface is made of, they don’t know how much of the size impression is down to reflected sunlight from a shiny surface or actual mass.

Another point I picked up on was that asteroids are most visible at the closest distance to earth - this asteroid was not discovered until two days after its closest point when it was already moving past Earth.

I love this stuff! 😁
Click to expand...
Me too.

NASA needs to get this bad boy in orbit ASAP.

science.nasa.gov

NEO Surveyor - NASA Science

NEO Surveyor is the first space telescope specifically designed to hunt asteroids and comets that may be potential hazards to Earth.
science.nasa.gov science.nasa.gov
 




OzMike

OzMike

Well-known member
Oct 2, 2006
13,461
Perth Australia
Gonna happen sooner or later, always does periodically.
Been a few mass extinctions to date and it will continue.
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
7,958
Hugo Rune said:
Me too.

NASA needs to get this bad boy in orbit ASAP.

science.nasa.gov

NEO Surveyor - NASA Science

NEO Surveyor is the first space telescope specifically designed to hunt asteroids and comets that may be potential hazards to Earth.
science.nasa.gov science.nasa.gov
Click to expand...
That link says it timed to launch in 2028 - the year that the 2024 y4 asteroid will be next visible after April this year. Good timing ? 🙂
 




Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
7,958
OzMike said:
Gonna happen sooner or later, always does periodically.
Been a few mass extinctions to date and it will continue.
Click to expand...

You’ll probably sleep through it when it does happen Mike :lol:
 




Eeyore

Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
27,319
OzMike said:
Gonna happen sooner or later, always does periodically.
Been a few mass extinctions to date and it will continue.
Click to expand...
I can't remember any in recent times
 


wellquickwoody

wellquickwoody

Many More Voting Years
NSC Patron
Aug 10, 2007
14,009
Melbourne
Near earth asteroids? Sounds like something you get after using cesspits whilst camping in winter.
 








Dick Swiveller

Dick Swiveller

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2011
9,756
It's been a while but I'll brush up on my skills in readiness
asteroids_2.gif
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
7,958
Risk increased again

news.sky.com

Odds of 2024 YR4 asteroid hitting Earth rise again

Data shows the asteroid is the most threatening to Earth in modern forecasting and would cause "severe damage" to a region if it makes impact - while scientists have just a few more weeks to observe the asteroid before it disappears from view until 2028.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

eu.usatoday.com

Could an asteroid really hit Earth? Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 reach highest levels ever

The risk that an increasingly ominous asteroid dubbed 2024 YR4 will crash into Earth in seven years now exceeds the the threat once posed by Apophis.
eu.usatoday.com eu.usatoday.com

can be tracked here
eyes.nasa.gov

Eyes on Asteroids - NASA/JPL

Explore the 3D world of Asteroids, Comets and NEOs. Learn about past and future missions, tracking and predicting orbits, and close approaches to Earth.
eyes.nasa.gov eyes.nasa.gov
 








A1X

A1X

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Sep 1, 2017
21,673
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Is there anyone out there who doesn’t think this is going to hit us realistically? We’re on the cursed timeline.
 






Hugo Rune

Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
24,418
Brighton
A1X said:
Is there anyone out there who doesn’t think this is going to hit us realistically? We’re on the cursed timeline.
Click to expand...
It’s not going to hit us.

The first reason is that the actual process of studying it’s orbit will inevitably bring the odds on a collision right down until suddenly, the trajectory can be pinpointed quite precisely and scientists calculate it won’t hit.

The second reason is if it is finally decided that the asteroid is on a collision course with the earth, it will be nudged into a different orbit by proven technology. Simples.

It’s in no one’s interest to downplay this story. Astrophysicists and astronomers get more publicity for their professions and the media gets more click bait.
 
Last edited:


Guy Fawkes

Guy Fawkes

The voice of treason
Sep 29, 2007
8,345
Barham's tash said:
Since you wrote your post the odds have halved to 1 in 43 chance or >3% chance of a direct hit.

What if this is what the chat about disclosure is actually about and this is the softening us up for the truth type narrative that we're actually all f***ed and that the efforts of Space X are about starting afresh on Mars as a colony with a remote chance of some facet of the human race being able to survive instead of none after a direct hit?
Click to expand...
The reason the odds of a collision are increasing is that it would have had a larger possible area it could pass through when it was first observed it as they would have had very few points to use to help determine it's route and therefore a wide margin for error for its projected route existed.

As more observations were taken, they were better able to predict it's actual path and the outer limits of their initial projected corridor it could pass through can be eliminated, meaning the new area that it could actually pass through in 2032 became narrower, thus increasing the odds of a collision however that would be something that is expected to happen until they can finally pinpoint it's actual path and determine whether it will hit or miss Earth (or until Earth lays beyond the narrowing corridor it could pass through, reducing the chances to zero).

To make this more visual to understand using a hypothetical example. Initially they detect a new asteroid that could pass through the solar system somewhere between the Sun and Neptune (a distance of 4.6 billion kilometers) and as Earth is found between these 2 points there is a chance it hits Earth, but is highly unlikely.

As more observations are taken, they narrow the possible area down to somewhere between Venus and Saturn (1.61 billion kilometers apart) so as there is less distance that the asteroid could pass through, the odds of it hitting have increased (about 2.85 times more likely to hit as the area it could pass through is smaller) however its still highly unlikely to hit Earth. More observations would then be taken and used to help determine it's actual path and that will show if it hits or misses Earth

It's currently heading away from us at the moment and they will lose the ability to get more points of it's orbit to help calculate its path, so they'll have to wait until it returns in 2028 to be able to start plotting its course again and will finally be able to answer whether it will hit or miss Earth in 2032 (a full 4 years before the orbit they say posses a small chance of a collision) so we are unlikely to see any changes in the odds until then.
 


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