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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,371
Maybe a lot of theories in how they find them, but here's one that Mrs saw in Russian on one of these expert commentary channels, that sounded plausible?

The oligarchs are sick of him, but still too fearful to oppose him directly..... some are colluding and know what a lot of these enterprises do as theyll have tentacles/contacts in them, then through intermediaries, leak that info to Ukraine.

keep smiling and feigning support for Putin while doing what they can to end and undermine him without being killed themselves.

may also be just wild speculation?
Also several million Russians of Ukrainian descent living and working in Russia. That's a lot of eyes and ears.
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
54,539
Goldstone
"The Kremlin appears to be growing increasingly concerned about perceptions of Russia's economic instability.

Two sources familiar with "thinking in the Kremlin" told Reuters that there is a camp within the Russian elite that views a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine as desirable and key to addressing Russia's economic issues."

 


sully

Dunscouting
Jul 7, 2003
7,960
Worthing
'Kremniy El factory produces microelectronics for missile complexes, Pantsir air defense, Iskander missiles, radar and electronic warfare and Russian drones. An important military target.'

I wonder how Ukraine finds these targets? I'm guessing, but they're unlikely to have their own websites, detailing what they make etc.
The fact that their purpose is announced widely as soon as they are attacked suggests this information isn’t actually too hard to come by.
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,001
And as we’ve speculated before on here, there is probably Ukraine’s SAS equivalent operating in Russia..
Probably with safe houses/food/support vehicles in various places.
Hence a plethora of 'drone attacks' at distances from Ukraine we have marveled at.

We probably won't get to hear about all this until the war is over. Which may be a bit of a wait.
 




Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,348
It looks like this is how Russia is going to conduct itself in the peace negotiation process.

It will set vague pre-conditions for entering every stage of the peace negotiations.
Think misplaced arrogance, misreading the situation, mockery, a conveyor belt of obstacles in the way etc.

This could be a long 100 days for Gen. Kellogg, and the rest of us.


If there’s a guy I despise almost as much as Putin it’s Lavrov. I think we all know by now that every word he utters is bull and therefore what his latest utterance really means is “help”!
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,001
If there’s a guy I despise almost as much as Putin it’s Lavrov. I think we all know by now that every word he utters is bull and therefore what his latest utterance really means is “help”!
I read a while ago that he wasn't entirely on board with the war, in that he wasn't told of it happening. He now finds himself trapped.

You don't retire from his job. Retirement is a bullet in an FSB basement.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,001
Belarus elections this weekend. I wonder who will win?
I read somewhere today too that Myanmar officials have visited Russia to learn how to run an election! you really couldn’t make it up ….. but hang on
I'm getting on a bit, so I like to think that I've seen it all.

But then, something like this happens. How have the Myanmar officials have gone through their whole lives and careers, and not noticed that Russia isn't the best example of how to run an election?
 


Seaview Seagull

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 1, 2021
604
I'm getting on a bit, so I like to think that I've seen it all.

But then, something like this happens. How have the Myanmar officials have gone through their whole lives and careers, and not noticed that Russia isn't the best example of how to run an election?
I think you've missed the point here. It is precisely because of how well Russia ensures the result of elections is pre determined that interests the Myanmar military thugs.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,001
I think you've missed the point here. It is precisely because of how well Russia ensures the result of elections is pre determined that interests the Myanmar military thugs.
Well, no I didn't miss the point. The whole point of elections is that they should be free, fair, and upheld. In an atmosphere free of fear.

The Myanmar officials haven't grasped, along with Russia, that holding bogus elections doesn't help their cause. It doesn't legitimise them. It just broadcasts to the whole world, what tyrants they are.

Forgive me, but isn't this obvious?
 




crookie

Well-known member
Jun 14, 2013
3,406
Back in Sussex
Belarus elections this weekend. I wonder who will win?
I read somewhere today too that Myanmar officials have visited Russia to learn how to run an election! you really couldn’t make it up ….. but hang on
Last stuff I read, on the ground the Mynmar Govt are losing control of lots of territory. Beggars belief that an election would be considered appropriate now, but then I'm in the comparatively safe haven of East Susses, so what do I know !!??
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
54,539
Goldstone
I'm getting on a bit, so I like to think that I've seen it all.

But then, something like this happens. How have the Myanmar officials have gone through their whole lives and careers, and not noticed that Russia isn't the best example of how to run an election?

I think that's the point. They don't want free and fair elections.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
54,539
Goldstone
Well, no I didn't miss the point. The whole point of elections is that they should be free, fair, and upheld. In an atmosphere free of fear.

The Myanmar officials haven't grasped, along with Russia, that holding bogus elections doesn't help their cause. It doesn't legitimise them. It just broadcasts to the whole world, what tyrants they are.

Forgive me, but isn't this obvious?

No. If you're a dictator and want to hold on to power, you don't want free and fair elections. They don't need to be 'legitimised', they just need to cling to power. Putin has never cared that he's not won elections fairly, he's just enjoyed being the richest, most powerful man in the biggest country in the world. Of course he could have had free and fair elections and lost power instead, but he didn't see the fun in that.
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,001
No. If you're a dictator and want to hold on to power, you don't want free and fair elections. They don't need to be 'legitimised', they just need to cling to power. Putin has never cared that he's not won elections fairly, he's just enjoyed being the richest, most powerful man in the biggest country in the world. Of course he could have had free and fair elections and lost power instead, but he didn't see the fun in that.
Of course Putin needs legitimacy. He craves it. That is why he wanted to join Nato, after he came to power. I suspect the Myanmar lot want it as well. All the time they are not 'legitimate' after an election win, they are vulnerable.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
54,539
Goldstone
Of course Putin needs legitimacy. He craves it. That is why he wanted to join Nato, after he came to power. I suspect the Myanmar lot want it as well. All the time they are not 'legitimate' after an election win, they are vulnerable.

Putin is vulnerable now because he's messed up Russia's economy and because of the Russian lives he's losing, not because their elections have never been fair.

The 98% election 'victories' in the annexed parts of Ukraine strike me as a complete piss take, laughing in the face of free elections. If he wanted people to really believe the results, they could have pretended the victories were much more modest, and also different to each other.

For Putin, the alternative to 'being the winner of bogus elections' is not 'being the winner of free and fair elections', it's being the loser. I don't see how that would help his cause.
 
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Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
54,539
Goldstone
The beginning of this covers the RT propaganda meltdown I've posted before, but then Jake goes on to analyse a lot more, and it's very interesting. Unless you're hoping Russia win the war, in which case you might find it depressing.

At the end of the analysis he shows groups of injured Russian soldiers, who've come back to the war with their injuries, and are marching forwards with crutches. It's unbelievable.
 
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raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,353
Wiltshire
"The Kremlin appears to be growing increasingly concerned about perceptions of Russia's economic instability.

Two sources familiar with "thinking in the Kremlin" told Reuters that there is a camp within the Russian elite that views a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine as desirable and key to addressing Russia's economic issues."

The ISW report is a bit vague. Certainly states that North Korea will supply more artillery and shells to Kursk region. Budanov reckons they won't send many more ground combat forces, but a US source reckons they will.
The North Koreans have to be more effective than newly conscripted Russians, so it's a worry if tens of thousands more are sent. I wonder if Putin would dare put them to fight on occupied Ukrainian land.
 


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