[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

raymondo · 2025-01-21T12:58:31+0000

raymondo said:
My memory's not that good . OK...
1. As per Eric's post above, Putin forced private banks to make preferential loans to defence companies, so, war expenditure is double the State's expenditure. Defence companies won't be able to pay back the loans, so the oligarch's are likely to suffer.
2. Jake thinks that after all the childish announcements by Trump, Musk whoever...about stopping the war very soon (As you say, at about midday today Washington time...), now he expects the adults will take over (Kellog etc) and the 'children' will just have to listen. Kellog etc KNOWS what sort of opponent Russia has been for decades.
He also hopes that MAGA can soon forget that Biden/ the Democrats were in charge of things for a while: too many MAGA guys automatically reacted against any support Biden gave to Ukraine (a political reaction) - he hopes they will now pivot and see what actually needs to be done.
3. The pro-Ukraine crowd need to start their own weekly podcasts to counteract the pro-Russian shit spouted regularly by other podcasters. e.g. General Ben Hodges (just one Jake mentioned). Ukraine needs to start winning back the information war, as MANY people get their 'news' and form their views from these podcasts.

And
4. European countries and Canada should just quickly agree to Trump's requests/demands to increase defence spending to 4% of GDP . Firstly, just make incremental increases each year (no-one will expect a sudden jump to 5%), and secondly...it's not a bad idea that Europe prepares it's defences better.
5. Oh, and Europe should close it's own loopholes on usage/transport of Russian oil and gas products.

raymondo · 2025-01-21T13:36:21+0000

driddles · 2025-01-21T13:58:29+0000

Triggaaar said:
So only a few hours of this war left, thanks to Trump, which is great news. I'll miss this thread though.

lol - pushed out 6 months already, day 1 tariffs against Canada pushed out to Feb already, almost as if he just makes this stuff up

raymondo · 2025-01-21T17:53:42+0000

A snippet from Davos:
"During a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU's "gas imports from Russia went down by roughly 75%" and that it imports from Russia "only 3% of our oil and no coal at all anymore

Triggaaar · 2025-01-21T18:09:41+0000

raymondo said:
A snippet from Davos:
"During a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU's "gas imports from Russia went down by roughly 75%" and that it imports from Russia "only 3% of our oil and no coal at all anymore

But does it import via back channels (shadow fleet etc)?

Eric the meek · 2025-01-21T18:13:36+0000

Irkutsk, at the southern end of Lake Baikal, is nearly 5000 km from Ukraine and it's burning.

I do remember an attack on a railway tunnel in this region of Russia, on a freight line used to transport coal from Siberia to China. I'm thinking that this new attack was also unlikely to have been a drone attack, and may have been due to the same unit.

raymondo · 2025-01-21T18:29:35+0000

Triggaaar said:
But does it import via back channels (shadow fleet etc)?

Quite likely... we'll find out someday.

raymondo · 2025-01-21T18:32:43+0000

Eric the meek said:
Irkutsk, at the southern end of Lake Baikal, is nearly 5000 km from Ukraine and it's burning.

I do remember an attack on a railway tunnel in this region of Russia, on a freight line used to transport coal from Siberia to China. I'm thinking that this new attack was also unlikely to have been a drone attack, and may have been due to the same unit.

Do we know what was hit? Nice conflagration, maybe a train carrying fuel, shells or somesuch. Well done you cigarette-dropping partisans.

raymondo · 2025-01-21T18:38:21+0000

On the subject of coal freight @Eric the meek China has increased it's coal imports from many countries...but reduced imports from Russia.
So much for the strategic relationship without limits.
Or, as someone replied, it's just that the Russian rail system can't deliver.

Eric the meek · 2025-01-21T18:50:40+0000

raymondo said:
Do we know what was hit? Nice conflagration, maybe a train carrying fuel, shells or somesuch. Well done you cigarette-dropping partisans.

No, it doesn't seem to say. Maybe this is deliberate, for operational/security reasons. For me, the distance is the key. Nowhere in Russia is safe.
Ukraine has a long reach.

Sirnormangall · 2025-01-21T21:13:17+0000

Eric the meek said:
This is interesting.

We must all be alert to disinformation, but what do we do about disinformation when it comes across as true?
Note where Russian money might be going.

Interesting story - and interesting that an increasing number of “off message” comms seem to be getting into the public domain

raymondo · 2025-01-22T08:04:00+0000

peterward · 2025-01-22T09:09:52+0000

Triggaaar said:
But does it import via back channels (shadow fleet etc)?

We do, and they know it too.

Because Ukraine hammered so many refineries. India and Turkey has been Importing raw crude at the sanctioned discount rate...... refining, rebadging and selling it on.

Eric the meek · 2025-01-22T09:16:10+0000

peterward said:
We do, and they know it too.

Because Ukraine hammered so many refineries. India and Turkey has been Importing raw crude at the sanctioned discount rate...... refining, rebadging and selling it on.

All trade output from Russia needs to be sanctioned.

I think that is what Trump was alluding to when he said it was 'likely' that he would sanction Russia if it didn't come to the negotiating table.

peterward · 2025-01-22T09:42:57+0000

Russian oil loses grip on Indian market, banks reject payments

Indian banks have begun blocking payments for Russian-origin oil following the Joe Biden administration's

english.nv.ua

raymondo · 2025-01-22T09:48:04+0000

Eric the meek said:
All trade output from Russia needs to be sanctioned.

I think that is what Trump was alluding to when he said it was 'likely' that he would sanction Russia if it didn't come to the negotiating table.

I hope Putin doesn't come to the table (yet)...his economy needs to flatline

essbee1 · 2025-01-22T10:40:18+0000

raymondo said:
I hope Putin doesn't come to the table (yet)...his economy needs to flatline

I mean, I'm no fan of Trump, but at least he answers questions directly and to the point
(even if it is b/s). UK politicians are the same (re: b/s) but don't even answer a f*****g question
when asked.

jcdenton08 · 2025-01-22T10:42:28+0000

essbee1 said:
I mean, I'm no fan of Trump, but at least he answers questions directly and to the point
(even if it is b/s). UK politicians are the same (re: b/s) but don't even answer a f*****g question
when asked.

What’s better, an outright lie or an unspoken one? I don’t like politicians lying to my face

Eric the meek · 2025-01-22T10:56:07+0000

raymondo said:
I hope Putin doesn't come to the table (yet)...his economy needs to flatline

I totally agree. I'm not even sure I want the peace talks to work at all.

A danger (or depending on your view, an advantage) I see is if Putin comes to the table and is disingenuous, making absurd demands to use the 'negotiations' to buy time. I assume Trump will time-box the peace talks to counter this danger.

At present, there has been no sign of compromise from Putin, apart from a storm of disinformation and continuing efforts from the central bank to keep the ruble at below $1 = 100 rubles. The current price is 98.67 rubles to the dollar. As I understand it, over-the-counter (OTC) transactions are still allowed, but all others are not.

I see this as Putin still wanting to portray an atmosphere of 'everything is fine', as he said in his annual Q&A marathon in December.

We're not there yet. But I think we are getting closer.

essbee1 · 2025-01-22T11:05:17+0000

jcdenton08 said:
What’s better, an outright lie or an unspoken one? I don’t like politicians lying to my face

I would put it differently jc. UK politicians patronise us further by giving us some
bo***x evasive answer. I'd rather they lie to us direct than treat us like idiots.

Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Fiveways Wilf

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Fiveways Wilf

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Fiveways Wilf

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Joel Veltman Fan Club

Fiveways Wilf

Well-known member

Share this page