[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

peterward · 2024-11-28T14:09:17+0000

Eric the meek said:
Would you lend money to Russia? I wouldn't. Well, all right. Would Russia's 'friends' then? North Korea? Iran? China?
No? So Russia can now only raise cash from inside Russia.

TLDR - no credit rating + low income + high interest rates + off-book loans + no foreign bank will lend Russia money = an impending debt crisis.

The presentation skills could be better, but he makes some good points.

I agree with all your points above, and without being an economist and knowing what Russian central Bank or Putin will do exactly, I wonder what will happen when/if Putin tries to lean on the Oligarchs to bail him out?

He has on numerous occasions asked them to pay for things like Crimea bridge, or facets of World Cup 2018, from a position of strength and they, wanting to keep onside and their wealth, have always conformed, but now as you cite, the whole picture is different, they've most likely already taken a huge haircut on their wealth and if Putin cant fund the everyday or his war and leans into them to do so, will they still conform to bail him out at their personal expense or will they finally try to somehow pull the trigger on Putin?

There's no real loyalty to Putin imho, just the mechanisms of a system that allowed them to be super rich, and preserving their wealth will be much higher priority than preserving Putin.

They wont be prepared to go down with the ship and you'd expect a desperate Putin will go to them for financial help if needed.

Will they choose the poor house to back a sinking ship, or chance of a Balcony fall to go against Putin?

aftershavedave · 2024-11-28T15:07:15+0000

peterward said:
I agree with all your points above, and without being an economist and knowing what Russian central Bank or Putin will do exactly, I wonder what will happen when/if Putin tries to lean on the Oligarchs to bail him out?

He has on numerous occasions asked them to pay for things like Crimea bridge, or facets of World Cup 2018, from a position of strength and they, wanting to keep onside and their wealth, have always conformed, but now as you cite, the whole picture is different, they've most likely already taken a huge haircut on their wealth and if Putin cant fund the everyday or his war and leans into them to do so, will they still conform to bail him out at their personal expense or will they finally try to somehow pull the trigger on Putin?

There's no real loyalty to Putin imho, just the mechanisms of a system that allowed them to be super rich, and preserving their wealth will be much higher priority than preserving Putin.

They wont be prepared to go down with the ship and you'd expect a desperate Putin will go to them for financial help if needed.

Will they choose the poor house to back a sinking ship, or chance of a Balcony fall to go against Putin?

Good post. Who knows? In the short-term I guess that they'll protect whatever Ruble denominated assets they have, and there has been strong Ruble purchases today, either because 115 was an overreaction, or "interested" parties have been buying to avoid a stronger run on the currency. The media has been very quiet on this, which is strange

essbee1 · 2024-11-28T15:15:02+0000

aftershavedave said:
Good post. Who knows? In the short-term I guess that they'll protect whatever Ruble denominated assets they have, and there has been strong Ruble purchases today, either because 115 was an overreaction, or "interested" parties have been buying to avoid a stronger run on the currency. The media has been very quiet on this, which is strange

Indeed. Why aren't the BBC running the demise of the ruble? They do allow BBC web access in Russia don't they? It could be the
trigger to help pukin on his way out a 4th floor window.

Eric the meek · 2024-11-28T15:53:36+0000

aftershavedave said:
Good post. Who knows? In the short-term I guess that they'll protect whatever Ruble denominated assets they have, and there has been strong Ruble purchases today, either because 115 was an overreaction, or "interested" parties have been buying to avoid a stronger run on the currency. The media has been very quiet on this, which is strange

What this thread needs is an economist. We had one briefly the other week, but he slipped over the side to go and watch the test match in NZ.

This wouldn't have happened in Russia. He'd have been chained to his desk, fed endless borscht and blinis, and his family held hostage at gunpoint.

aftershavedave · 2024-11-28T16:05:07+0000

Eric the meek said:
What this thread needs is an economist. We had one briefly the other week, but he slipped over the side to go and watch the test match in NZ.

This wouldn't have happened in Russia. He'd have been chained to his desk, fed endless borscht and blinis, and his family held hostage at gunpoint.

I am going for interested parties propping up the shitshow btw, I wouldn't be surprised at the buyers being sovereign funds friendly to Russia unless corporates are taking realised profits just to start again. The trajectory is one way though if they can't or won't protect their interests. The big players are big-corp banks, they know where this is heading: 120 by early next week

Sirnormangall · 2024-11-28T16:43:23+0000

essbee1 said:
Indeed. Why aren't the BBC running the demise of the ruble? They do allow BBC web access in Russia don't they? It could be the
trigger to help pukin on his way out a 4th floor window.

I can’t find anything on the BBC website about the Ruble — odd, maybe I missed it. Steve Rosenberg continues to produce his usual daily summary of the Russian newspaper headlines which this week have featured heavily the currency and inflation problems. Surprised in a way that the state controlled media aren’t seeking to play down or ignore these problems, but I suppose some things are just too obvious for the state to ignore and the best option is to try to control the narrative around bad news.

Eric the meek · 2024-11-28T16:45:40+0000

aftershavedave said:
I am going for interested parties propping up the shitshow btw, I wouldn't be surprised at the buyers being sovereign funds friendly to Russia unless corporates are taking realised profits just to start again. The trajectory is one way though if they can't or won't protect their interests. The big players are big-corp banks, they know where this is heading: 120 by early next week

That sounds perfectly reasonable. I like the idea of 'suspending all trading', apart from the trades which will move the price in the desired direction. How very Russian of them. There's a lot to be said for this tactic. It would be funny if it still went down though.

USD/RUB Currency Exchange Rate & News - Google Finance

Get the latest United States Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD / RUB) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.

www.google.com

Eric the meek · 2024-11-28T16:49:12+0000

Sirnormangall said:
I can’t find anything on the BBC website about the Ruble — odd, maybe I missed it. Steve Rosenberg continues to produce his usual daily summary of the Russian newspaper headlines which this week have featured heavily the currency and inflation problems. Surprised in a way that the state controlled media aren’t seeking to play down or ignore these problems, but I suppose some things are just too obvious for the state to ignore and the best option is to try to control the narrative around bad news.

Absolutely. The propaganda can also be useful in that it can provide an insight into current thinking within the Kremlin. For instance, I remember Solovyev complaining about the price of Iranian Shahed drones, asking why Russia could not make them cheaper. He was preparing the ground for Russia to do just that.

It will be interesting to see how they handle the exchange rate, crippling inflation and 25% mortgage rates.

peterward · 2024-11-28T17:12:27+0000

This is a brilliant illustration of how crazy west's reposnse has been.

Eric the meek · 2024-11-28T17:17:59+0000

As well as some interesting bits about the ruble and economy, there's another encouraging bit about Kellogg near the end of this article.

Russian central bank takes desperate stand to halt collapsing ruble and fierce inflation

Worth a fraction of a penny now, the ruble has fallen to lows not seen since March 2022 in the early days of the war against Ukraine.

fortune.com

Also in the article, is a link to market research data firm ROMIR.
Translate it to English, and you will see the Sept 2024 data point of 231 (blue line). Compare it with Sept 2023 value of 189.2 (orange line), and you arrive at an annual Sep 23-Sep 24 inflation rate of 22.1%.

Институт Человека РОМИР - лидер научно-практических исследований в евразийском регионе в области социальных наук. Социологические, демографические и маркетинговые исследования в России и мире, бизнес-консалтинг и аудит розницы.

Институт Человека РОМИР / Исследования и Аналитика

romir.ru

raymondo · 2024-11-28T18:12:03+0000

Good project.
But is it good to pre announce all these joint ventures to the world? I guess it helps to show the unified support for Ukraine...but I hope there's lots of stuff staying under the radar.

raymondo · 2024-11-28T18:19:39+0000

peterward said:
This is a brilliant illustration of how crazy west's reposnse has been.

What a brilliant analogy from Ponomarenko

.
That took a lot of thought and time to craft.

raymondo · 2024-11-28T18:32:28+0000

I find Ukraine's ability to identify and attack high value targets...is quite excellent.

Dick Head · 2024-11-28T19:18:22+0000

Eric the meek said:
Would you lend money to Russia? I wouldn't. Well, all right. Would Russia's 'friends' then? North Korea? Iran? China?
No? So Russia can now only raise cash from inside Russia.

TLDR - no credit rating + low income + high interest rates + off-book loans + no foreign bank will lend Russia money = an impending debt crisis.

The presentation skills could be better, but he makes some good points.

Nice skateboard though.

Eric the meek · 2024-11-28T19:58:35+0000

Dick Head said:
Nice skateboard though.

I've watched his video twice, and I never noticed that.

Eric the meek · 2024-11-28T20:21:20+0000

Sorry, false alarm. As you were. There is no ruble collapse. Move along. Nothing to see here.

GoldstoneVintage · 2024-11-28T20:26:12+0000

Eric the meek said:
Would you lend money to Russia? I wouldn't. Well, all right. Would Russia's 'friends' then? North Korea? Iran? China?
No? So Russia can now only raise cash from inside Russia.

TLDR - no credit rating + low income + high interest rates + off-book loans + no foreign bank will lend Russia money = an impending debt crisis.

The presentation skills could be better, but he makes some good points.

Is he by any chance hinting that Russia has a debt crisis?

A1X · 2024-11-28T20:35:57+0000

Eric the meek said:
Sorry, false alarm. As you were. There is no ruble collapse. Move along. Nothing to see here.

GoldstoneVintage · 2024-11-28T20:38:31+0000

A1X said:
View attachment 193038

"The Ruble is the mother of stable currencies."

Eric the meek · 2024-11-28T20:43:30+0000

GoldstoneVintage said:
Is he by any chance hinting that Russia has a debt crisis?

Yes, he's quite amusing. I think it's because he doesn't rely on any, you know, data. There are no graphs, no powerpoint, nothing. Just him talking. In front of a cave.
I actually like this kind of presentation style. It's not formulaic.

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