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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,267
Hove






peterward

Well-known member
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Nov 11, 2009
12,274
1 USD = 104.070 RUB

The Moscow exchange must be closed by now, so this is from trading elsewhere.

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Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,178
I'm not so sure there would be a full-on civil war. Unrest, lawlessness, gunfights on the streets of Moscow sure, but an organised uprising? I'm not so sure. These people are fragmented and diverse across a vast continent.

The reason I say this, is that, according to Paul Warburg, the ethnic republics and oblasts have historically been kept separate, as a deliberate policy, to avoid any organised opposition to Moscow. Warburg suggests that this is the reason there are few roads or rail hubs in Siberia - apart from those that were built to exploit the natural wealth of Siberia. Many communities cannot physically get together to organise opposition or resistance.

That said, the inhabitants of the ethnic republics have never known self-determination. They may sense a power vacuum in Moscow and some may go after those who have oppressed them for centuries. The Russians.
I agree - Russia is a melting pot of different ethnicities who, if central government starts to breakdown, may sense an opportunity to pursue independence. How that might play out is anyone’s guess. Putin has previously had to fight two wars in Chechnya and still can’t totally suppress it.
 


Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,178
Looks like the whole world is following your advice !

I can't ever remember a time when I'm looking forward to Monday so much !
For a bit of fun I’ve just tried to open a Ruble account on my Revolut account but surprisingly it’s one of the few currencies they don’t offer ( their systems probably don’t have the capacity to keep up with it!)
 




chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
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Oct 12, 2022
2,690
No.
But I'm not talking about whether it would be 'justified' or not. We're dealing with an unpredictable crackpot dictator who at the moment is seeing British missiles pummelling his country. In his head, that might justify putting us in the crosshairs. An attack on a NATO nation would be a massive escalation obviously, so it could all be bluster as usual. We hope.

I think you have to remember that he’s full of shit. I suspect he threatens to use nukes on his housekeeper if there’s not enough vodka to go on the cornflakes.

I really don’t understand how anyone’s still falling for the “woah, he’s so crazy and unpredictable” nonsense.

He’s entirely predictable. Everything is described as a red line which if crossed will cause Russia to be forced to escalate against Russia’s enemies.

As each red line is crossed, he says “well you may have crossed that red line, but if you cross this next red line, you will see Russia escalate things against its enemies.”

And repeat ad nauseum. He’s boxed in. He can’t escalate to the point of a nuclear conflict as Russia would be destroyed, he can’t escalate to the point of a regular world conflict without China and Iran joining him. NATO are simply better equipped. I don’t think he’d survive being seen to fail at home in Russia, so we have what we have now.

He’s going to have to take a peace deal of some kind, his country is going down the toilet, he’s going to get taken out from within if something doesn’t give shortly.
 


A1X

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Sep 1, 2017
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Deepest, darkest Sussex
“LET’S GET READY TO RUBLE!”

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dangull

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Feb 24, 2013
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Many posts on here say Russia is on the brink of a financial crash. I have not seen anything on the mainstream TV news reporting this?
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,143
Goldstone
Many posts on here say Russia is on the brink of a financial crash. I have not seen anything on the mainstream TV news reporting this?

I don't think they're on the brink. But I also don't think Ukraine's military are on the brink of collapse. I think both can go on for another year. It'll get tougher for Ukraine, but Russia will continue to lose a lot on the battlefield while their economy gets worse. It's difficult to predict how it will end, I just hope we support Ukraine until that end.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
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Aug 24, 2020
7,096
Many posts on here say Russia is on the brink of a financial crash. I have not seen anything on the mainstream TV news reporting this?
TV news reports on facts (past events), or important future events such as elections. It tends not to make predictions on things which haven't happened yet.

The BBC Moscow correspondent Steve Rosenberg treads a careful line between reporting the news, and getting arrested. Inspite of this, he still reports on things like food price inflation in Russia. But only near Moscow....

Russia being a closed society, most economic news is untrustworthy as it has been distorted by the state. The one piece of real time data that the Russian state cannot falsify is the exchange rate. We can glean a lot from it. Russia is importing Inflation. Heat or eat. And then, neither.

My view is that Russia will soon grind to a halt and descend into a failed state. A former super power, frozen in time. Cargo trains will sit abandoned in Siberia. Seats on the few planes still flying will skyrocket in price. Scarcity of goods will lead to crippling inflation. This willl result in hunger, crime, unrest, and possibly humanitarian and refugee crises. Some of them we may not even hear about. How will Steve Rosenberg get there?

Just my opinion. But don't listen to me. Watch it on the TV news in years to come.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,349
Wiltshire
I don't think they're on the brink. But I also don't think Ukraine's military are on the brink of collapse. I think both can go on for another year. It'll get tougher for Ukraine, but Russia will continue to lose a lot on the battlefield while their economy gets worse. It's difficult to predict how it will end, I just hope we support Ukraine until that end.
Agreed. Russian economy will keep limping on. If their oil, gas sales abroad could be sanctioned out of existence... that would speed things up.
But, more cracks will keep appearing in their domestic infrastructure (no workers and spare parts), and food prices.
Probably a year or so to go yet.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
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Aug 24, 2020
7,096
Agreed. Russian economy will keep limping on. If their oil, gas sales abroad could be sanctioned out of existence... that would speed things up.
But, more cracks will keep appearing in their domestic infrastructure (no workers and spare parts), and food prices.
Probably a year or so to go yet.
The capacity of Russians to suffer, and the capacity of their leader to not solve the sufferinng because he doesn't care,, could ultimately determine the timeframe.

Unless there is some economic or political event that hastens it.
 




A1X

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Sep 1, 2017
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Going back to the fears expressed on here over the last few days about Putin widening the war, my thinking is this.

We know how Putin operates. He probes for weaknesses. If Putin was seriously considering launching an attack on NATO then we’d see signs of it. We’d be seeing missiles “missing their targets” in Ukraine and landing in Poland. There’d be unrest in Kaliningrad with the blame being pinned on the Baltics. NATO airspace and waters would be being “buzzed” repeatedly and regularly.

Maybe I’m missing this, but I’m not seeing it happen. Never say never and the need for vigilance is always there, but it doesn’t feel like Putin is probing NATO. Dictators (which Putin is) seldom change their tactics and mindset. From Hitler to Ceaușescu, they refuse to change tack all the way to the point where they’re in the bunker at the end. It would be quite the volte-face for him to turn around out of the blue and swing a punch at NATO.
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,143
Goldstone
If there were a humanitarian crisis in Russia next year, should / would other countries provide aid?

If Putin was out of power, and his military out of Ukraine, then it's possible help could be given to the people. Otherwise, certainly not.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,096
If there were a humanitarian crisis in Russia next year, should / would other countries provide aid?
Perhaps we shouldn't lump all the people of Russia together? It is a vast country with huge diversity and many ethnicities. As I understand it, the oppressors are the ethnic Russians, with some blurring around the edges of course. Shoigu is a Tuvan.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,349
Wiltshire
Perhaps we shouldn't lump all the people of Russia together? It is a vast country with huge diversity and many ethnicities. As I understand it, the oppressors are the ethnic Russians, with some blurring around the edges of course. Shoigu is a Tuvan.
That's interesting, didn't know he was Tuvan. So, "I've made it to the elite and you're never gonna get there".

Latest from Paul Warburg (I'm part way through) is all about their economy and how it looks supper rosy to many citizens at the moment (flush with sign up and death benefits from the military). Maybe an example of catastrophe theory soon to happen 🤞
 




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