[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

Eric the meek · 2024-11-17T11:44:49+0000

Triggaaar said:
I know it's not the point of the article, but from that: "When Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash last year"

So it wasn't shot down, it simply crashed did it? I appreciate they may be attempting to be ambiguous and leave the cause of the deaths to us, but saying it crashed actually acts as though it wasn't shot down. When tanks are blown up by mines and rockets, we don't say they crashed

Good spot. This could be the BBC copying the narrative in a report from Russia, after Russia has been subtle in its reporting language. Suddenly, Putin is distanced from Prigozhin's death. He wasn't shot down, and the innocent plane crew were not sacrificed to kill him.

Triggaaar · 2024-11-17T11:53:21+0000

Eric the meek said:
Good spot. This could be the BBC copying the narrative in a report from Russia, after Russia has been subtle in its reporting language. Suddenly, Putin is distanced from Prigozhin's death. He wasn't shot down, and the innocent plane crew were not sacrificed to kill him.

I think it's pathetic of the BBC. What they could have said was 'died when his plane blew up', because that fits the conclusion from the West, and also the claim from Russia. The difference is simply how it was blown up.

Eric the meek · 2024-11-17T11:55:08+0000

GoldstoneVintage said:
Thanks, this is actually pretty encouraging and seems logical.

I liked the observation about Trump, who says everything to futureproof himself against changing his mind. That would explain the mixed messages I wrote about a week or two ago.

Then there was the point about the Russian Black Sea oil export terminals. The reason they are still operating is because Ukraine doesn't want to risk upsetting the Americans.

But if Trump says he's not going to send any more aid, then it could be open season.

Eric the meek · 2024-11-17T11:58:50+0000

Triggaaar said:
I think it's pathetic of the BBC. What they could have said was 'died when his plane blew up', because that fits the conclusion from the West, and also the claim from Russia. The difference is simply how it was blown up.

I agree. I would have expected better from the BBC. They know Russia distorts reality. Indeed, they've got a whole department called 'BBC Verify' to verify incoming news items.

Perhaps they also need to use that department to validate and proof read their own output.

raymondo · 2024-11-17T14:05:53+0000

The UK needs to "tidy up" some things before we can point fingers at others.

Britain must stop Glasgow firm's Arctic ships from funding Putin's war - Euromaidan Press

Glasgow shipping firm Seapeak Maritime operates Arctic vessels moving Russian LNG despite UK ban, funding Putin's war through sanctions loophole.

euromaidanpress.com

hampshirebrightonboy · 2024-11-17T14:28:07+0000

Mackenzie said:
Hopefully folk will start walking away from Tesla.

And Twitter. Seems a lot of people are moving off twitter to Blue Sky. Would love it if twitter failed. Would it be the first large company to fail simply because it’s owner is a complete wanker?

raymondo · 2024-11-17T14:32:17+0000

Eric the meek said:
A disturbing, but not entirely unexpected result of Russian veterans returning home and being violent.

What also is happening, is that the violence tends to go unpunished and is becoming normalised.

Russia's soldiers bringing wartime violence back home

Many of the attackers have previous criminal convictions and were released from prison purely to fight.

www.bbc.co.uk

There aren't many russians that I feel anything for...but the families of those murdered by released prisoners... There's nowhere for those family members to go for justice - nothing for them.

raymondo · 2024-11-17T14:36:31+0000

hampshirebrightonboy said:
And Twitter. Seems a lot of people are moving off twitter to Blue Sky. Would love it if twitter failed. Would it be the first large company to fail simply because it’s owner is a complete wanker?

Would be nice. A lot of the pro Ukraine commentators I read say they will stay on Twitter (or have both) to keep fighting the bad guys and the trolls.
Or should they all leave so the bad guys and bots just fight each other.
I don't know what the 'protections' are on BlueSky but I'm pretty sure the trolls and bots will follow there somehow

Wallace · 2024-11-17T14:42:41+0000

seagullwedgee said:
The hyper-inflation in the Russian economy suggests that money supply is growing much faster than real economic output. We don’t have any hard information on money supply in Russia, but it’s likely, maybe even probable, that Russia is now printing/creating new money, to use to prop up its currency, because it has no accessible reserves left. Remember when you did history back at school, and citizens in Nazi Germany were literally resorting to using wheelbarrows to move the amount of cash required to go shopping. Not there yet, but maybe not far off. That’s his last resort, to create new money to prop up his currency and this is an exponentially slippery slope. If only we had access to his genuine M0 and M4 (money supply) statistics, trends and trajectories.

Maybe he's been getting some advice from Gordon Brown regarding printing money.

seagullwedgee · 2024-11-17T15:23:05+0000

Wallace said:
Maybe he's been getting some advice from Gordon Brown regarding printing money.

That Gordon who sold most of our gold reserves, at a low point in the price cycle, before going on to print money, and then leave the cupboard empty?!

Triggaaar · 2024-11-17T15:31:03+0000

seagullwedgee said:
That Gordon who sold most of our gold reserves, at a low point in the price cycle, before going on to print money, and then leave the cupboard empty?!

Now hold on a minute, he did have the decency to tell the markets he was going to sell the gold before doing so, so at least they had a chance to dump gold before the price dropped.

GT49er · 2024-11-17T15:51:11+0000

Wallace said:
Maybe he's been getting some advice from Gordon Brown regarding printing money.

Very unlikely - but hey! - let's have an irrelevant (to this thread) dig at someone, eh?

raymondo · 2024-11-17T15:51:38+0000

Eric the meek said:
I liked the observation about Trump, who says everything to futureproof himself against changing his mind. That would explain the mixed messages I wrote about a week or two ago.

Then there was the point about the Russian Black Sea oil export terminals. The reason they are still operating is because Ukraine doesn't want to risk upsetting the Americans.

But if Trump says he's not going to send any more aid, then it could be open season.

It was a very thoughtful video from Warburg, and I like the three points you highlight, especially the first. One always thinks Trump is just random, unpredictable, and it may well be very deliberate from him... covering all bases.

Even the rudeness directed toward Zelenskiy in the past week has come from Musk and Trump's son - Trump can disown that, as he hasn't been rude about Zelenskiy for over two weeks now!

Eric the meek · 2024-11-17T16:13:31+0000

raymondo said:
It was a very thoughtful video from Warburg, and I like the three points you highlight, especially the first. One always thinks Trump is just random, unpredictable, and it may well be very deliberate from him... covering all bases.

Even the rudeness directed toward Zelenskiy in the past week has come from Musk and Trump's son - Trump can disown that, as he hasn't been rude about Zelenskiy for over two weeks now!

I forgot to mention that the US have only sent 10% of the promised weaponry. So that means that the potential withdrawal of US aid is not so daunting for Ukraine as it might have been, and Trump may not have the leverage to twist Zelensky's arm as he might have done.

BenGarfield · 2024-11-17T16:29:35+0000

seagullwedgee said:
That Gordon who sold most of our gold reserves, at a low point in the price cycle, before going on to print money, and then leave the cupboard empty?!

What cupboard? This is nonsense. Every UK government since 1971 has printed money. Thats what fiat currency governments do. I hold no brief for Gordon Brown, as I understand from a guy I met at a recent economics conference, who had interviewed Brown for an economics podcast, that despite being prime minister and chancellor, he had very little grasp of how UK monetary operations actually worked.

raymondo · 2024-11-17T16:47:03+0000

Eric the meek said:
I forgot to mention that the US have only sent 10% of the promised weaponry. So that means that the potential withdrawal of US aid is not so daunting for Ukraine as it might have been, and Trump may not have the leverage to twist Zelensky's arm as he might have done.

Yes, I do get his point, and it's important, but I think he downplayed the total military support from the US since the invasion.
US military and financial support overall has been critical to Ukraine IMO - it would take some time for Europe, Ukraine (and others? S Korea?) to take up the slack.

seagullwedgee · 2024-11-17T16:51:31+0000

This chart plots the rouble against the US$ for the last 3 months. In that period the rouble has devalued by 15%, on the back of at least 2 years of prior substantial devaluations. Marked with the red arrows, you can see how over time, the interventions of the Russian central bank have become progressively less effective at arresting the devaluation.

That suggests they are very close to the point where they just don’t have enough, or anything, left to prevent further immediate substantial devaluation.

raymondo · 2024-11-17T16:56:09+0000

Huge attacks daily from Russia now, on civilians and energy infrastructure.

raymondo · 2024-11-17T16:58:29+0000

seagullwedgee said:
This chart plots the rouble against the US$ for the last 3 months. In that period the rouble has devalued by 15%, on the back of at least 2 years of prior substantial devaluations. Marked with the red arrows, you can see how over time, the interventions of the Russian central bank have become progressively less effective at arresting the devaluation.View attachment 192497

That suggests they are very close to the point where they just don’t have enough, or anything, left to prevent further immediate substantial devaluation.

Very interesting thanks, especially the interventions becoming less effective,

Bodian · 2024-11-17T17:03:26+0000

hampshirebrightonboy said:
And Twitter. Seems a lot of people are moving off twitter to Blue Sky. Would love it if twitter failed. Would it be the first large company to fail simply because it’s owner is a complete wanker?

Gerald Ratner springs to mind.

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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

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