[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

Eric the meek said:

That's the first time I've heard that. So the peace talks are doomed before they begin? I wonder if Trump and his team are aware of it?

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peterward said:

I have no idea. I think you're right that Russia is in a world of immediate problems so maybe they would agree to some sort of freeze to buy time?

But ultimately, Putins abstract history lessons and worldview are formed by Ilyin and there is no way Putin will accept a free Ukraine outside Russias orbit. He'll be back again at some point.

Dr Timothy Snyder has written a fair bit about it, for a more simplistic, bitsize taster, hes a short video of shynder and a sexed up Medhri Hassan version he did a on it near beginning of war. Ikyins worldview is Putins and through that lens his actions and ambitions while sick are more predictable!

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Eric the meek said:

I've just watched them. It is a bit remiss of me to have been on this forum since near the beginning, and not be aware of this. I have sometimes wondered why Putin behaves in the ways he does; the answers would appear to be in Illyin's works. Putin's thinking often appears to be on tramlines. He is driven, but not in a good way.

I suspect this makes him irredeemable, but, as you say, predictable. He believes his own spin so much, that even when huge economic problems stare him in the face, he ploughs on regardless, perhaps in the belief that his view of the world will come good in the end.

But will the end come first, before his and Russia's redemption?

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Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

peterward said:

Just read this on X from a leading Ukrainian journalist. (You may well be aware of)

Kinda on the same themes about Putins appetite won't be satisfied with a permanent freeze.

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peterward said:

Just read this on X from a leading Ukrainian journalist. (You may well be aware of)

Kinda on the same themes about Putins appetite won't be satisfied with a permanent freeze.



And this from the Atlantic is more of the same theme, and i reckon a pretty accurate take also.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

Click to expand...

peterward said:

There is a lot of miscalculation in the west who wrongly assume its about Territory, or NATO or Nazis or any other baloney reason for Putin.

Its none of those things. Putins worldview and Ukraine view is inspired by dead Russian fascist philosopher Ivan Ilyin, Putin quotes him often, personally repatriated his body and works from abroad, he even had a book of Ilyins writings sent to all Russian regional governors around 2010-2012. Tye Russian state mirrors Ilyins totalitarian ideals. Ilyin states clearly that any concept of a Ukraine independent of Russia (little Russia independent of Great Russia) must be exterminated and can never be allowed to exist independent of Russia.

Putin never will accept any part of Ukraine/Kyiv going into EU NATO for 20% of their fields or destroyed towns. All this BS about Nazis ir NATO is a smokescreen. He is genociding Ukraine areas of all Ukraine culture and references and he won't stop until he subjugated all of Ukraine, in time or is himself defeated. Any forced bad peace will not hold, it will only delay the next push.

The west has his motivations all wrong and Putin won't agree to any form of Ukraine being out of his sphere or Control.

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Eric the meek said:

There's much to discuss in that. I'll try to address your points in the order you made them.

Received wisdom has it that Putin wanted a Trump win, but he endorsed Kamala Harris in the US election. This could have been a bluff of course. Posting old naked pictures on Melania on Russian state TV was perhaps a gangster style powerplay or maybe a warning (that he has Kompromat on Trump and will use it). This could backfire spectacularly.

Russia is in a death spiral economically. There is a chasm between the bravado and sabre-rattling for the domestic TV market and the many enemies that Russia now has, compared to the brutal reality now facing it. Its own war is now unsustainable. A war that is approaching 1000 days, and which has gained him just 20% of Ukraine. Russia spends more than it makes. The ruble is near parity. Not with the dollar but with the cent. Its base rate is 21%, and will shortly be rising again. Having tried and failed to blackmail Europe over oil and gas, it has lost those customers forever. Its replacement customers, China and India, want the oil and gas at cost price. If Russia doesn't comply, they will simply take their business elsewhere. Whoever it was who blew up the Nordstream pipeline, landed a killer blow, right in Russia's breadbasket.

Regarding shifting borders, Ukraine doesn't need to cede any territory. Giving away Crimea to Russia, is a non-runner, as it has huge strategic value, would be used to disrupt Ukraine's sea trade routes, and because, well, Russia is desperate to keep Sevastopol as it is its only warm water ice free port. Russia lost the trust and goodwill of the west a long time ago, roughly when it became aware that the invasion was going ahead, at the same time that they said it wasn't. So how could there be any 'binding non-aggression pact'? Who could trust a single, solitary word that Putin says now?

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peterward said:

Musk keeps posting conspiracy theories that suit his agenda with a 1 or 2 word quip. He's trying to create narratives that suit his agenda, but based on lies.

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Pavilionaire said:

Crimea has the largest proportion of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, it is the most "Russian" territory in the country and it has been under Russian control for a decade. Indeed, the West didn't fight hard to keep it out of Putin's hands, and that would indicate it is a bargaining chip the West would be prepared to give up in any peace deal.

Ukraine will need western money to help rebuild the country. The most logical way for that to happen would be for it to be part of the EU, as that would provide both sides with mutual gains and some measure of certainty and security. They would surely have to think seriously about ceding that territory to Russian if it meant regaining the rest of the lost territory, EU and NATO membership.

I agree that Putin cannot be trusted, but he is not going to be around forever either.

Of course we only pontificate because Trump has said he'd sort a deal before he comes into power. There is a strong argument for maintaining support for Ukraine 'as is' and playing a waiting game.

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Bodian said:

Indeed. But it's got him into the White House with his puppet president. So, it's no wonder that he keeps on with it.

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peterward said:

Just read this on X from a leading Ukrainian journalist. (You may well be aware of)

Kinda on the same themes about Putins appetite won't be satisfied with a permanent freeze.



And this from the Atlantic is more of the same theme, and i reckon a pretty accurate take also.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

Click to expand...

Pavilionaire said:

Crimea has the largest proportion of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, it is the most "Russian" territory in the country and it has been under Russian control for a decade. Indeed, the West didn't fight hard to keep it out of Putin's hands, and that would indicate it is a bargaining chip the West would be prepared to give up in any peace deal.

Ukraine will need western money to help rebuild the country. The most logical way for that to happen would be for it to be part of the EU, as that would provide both sides with mutual gains and some measure of certainty and security. They would surely have to think seriously about ceding that territory to Russian if it meant regaining the rest of the lost territory, EU and NATO membership.

I agree that Putin cannot be trusted, but he is not going to be around forever either.

Of course we only pontificate because Trump has said he'd sort a deal before he comes into power. There is a strong argument for maintaining support for Ukraine 'as is' and playing a waiting game.

Click to expand...

peterward said:

Just read this on X from a leading Ukrainian journalist. (You may well be aware of)

Kinda on the same themes about Putins appetite won't be satisfied with a permanent freeze.



And this from the Atlantic is more of the same theme, and i reckon a pretty accurate take also.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

Click to expand...

Eric the meek said:

Two snippets for this morning:

1. Times Radio report that Trump has said 'if Russia doesn't compromise, he'll arm Ukraine to the teeth'. (Let's hope Russia doesn't compromise then).
2. FMCG (fast moving consumer goods - stuff you buy at the supermarket) inflation in Russia in August was 22% - Vladimir Milov, Swedish Economic Symposium in August.

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Bozza said:

Do we need to draw a line under this thread and create a new "Trump Presidency utter clusterfuck" thread?

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