aftershavedave
Well-known member
This thread will already have been reported by the "owner" of the best, bigly thread in the universe on the election, so let's wave goodbye now
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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 16,062
Yeah, but at least he's a CHARACTER
- Oct 17, 2008
- 14,563
Nothing personal old bean, was just having a bit of a break
Apologies for duplicating your thread!
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,025
oops, misread.
What do you mean by this?
I'm not suggesting, "The betting markets currently say that Trump has a 60% probability to win, therefore he will win".
I.01 shots, the shortest odds possible on Betfair - with an implied probability of 99% - get turned over. It doesn't mean the odds were wrong, it means the 1% chance happened, as will be the case around 1 time out of every 100.
The betting exchanges offer a near-perfect marketplace.
Exchanges are open to manipulation, but it would take significant sums of money, and I remain to be convinced of the outcome achieved.
For a start, most people will have no idea what the betting markets are saying - it's just not a part of their life nor the conversations they partake in.
Secondly, if you do want the media to be reporting "Trump is the favourite" why would you keep backing in further than required. Trump 1.9 / 2.1 Harris gets you a "Trump is favourite" position, why get Trump down to c1.6?
Finally, how does anyone know whether a message that "Trump is favourite" will motivate the Democratic vote - "It's important we vote now" or dissuade it - "there's no point in voting now"?
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 16,062
Just leaving for Downing Street now...
I was commenting on the thought processes of much of most electorates.I don't get this need from people for 'personalities' or 'characters' in positions of power. Not just in politics, the same goes for football, business, music, whatever.
If someone is good at what they do, just let them get on with it
I have less of a grasp about whether Harris is any good at her job than I have a grasp on how charismatic and nimble-minded she appears to be.
I was happy to back Starmer based on his employment record and moderate sounding policies.
I would certainly back Harris were I to have a vote there. But she hasn't shone. Trump isn't a 'Nazi'. He doesn't have any political doctrine.
Her main strength is she isn't Trump. And this will be seen as a weakness by many Americans, even if they are too inarticulate or particularly interested to explain themselves.
Beyond Trump's odds shortening, having read the last few pages of this thread, it's slightly depressing that there are still some who seem to believe that "Trump won't be that bad", as if the insurrection didn't happen, as if most/all those who worked closest with him believe him to be a dangerous idiotic fascist, as if he hadn't been found guilty of numerous crimes, as if with the world in a very fragile geopolitical position including multiple wars playing out he would be the very worst kind of influence.
As someone else said - I can feel myself sinking into a Brexit-like gloom.
As someone else said - I can feel myself sinking into a Brexit-like gloom.
I wasn't defending him.Yeah, but at least he's a CHARACTER
You have a habit of getting needlessly carried away with your half-formed impression of what I am going on about
lol so you whacked poor old Zeb on ignore for a breakNothing personal old bean, was just having a bit of a break
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
It’s a good job we did, in 1917 and 1941. We needed food, fuel and armaments.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
I feel the same way. It’s going to be turbulent either way.
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 16,062
I'm not a betting man, so most of what you posted goes straight over my head.
What I meant was that I can't understand how people can take odds seriously when they fluctuate massively on a seemingly daily basis. A load of recent polls have the two neck and neck - and yet reports of 'a big swing' are enough to convince people that Trump is now DEFIANTLY going to win. That's mental - to me, anyway.
I'm not saying it will or won't happen, but basing your conclusion to a presidential race PURELY on the odds given by a bookmaker, is a bit weird, no?
- Oct 17, 2008
- 14,563
Trump might not be a Nazi, but he certainly has made statements which sound very much like textbook fascism.
“During the initial remarks made on Friday, which caused outrage and alarm among his critics, Trump told the crowd to “get out and vote, just this time”, adding that “you won’t have to do it any more. Four more years, you know what? It’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine, you won’t have to vote any more, my beautiful Christians.”
Add to that his admiration for Putin, a defacto dictator, and numerous other examples I can’t be bothered to list, he’s certainly got ambitions to “reform” the role of President…
Because they want it to look like it was rigged.
Trump recently said at a rally "I shouldn't tell you this, but I've seen the polling data, I've seen the polling data and it's not even close. We're going to win huge etc"
Building the narrative that a Harris win is completely unfathomable, and CLEARLY dodgy.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
Or else. Can you not see the threat?
But that was my first point: I'm not, and I can see no evidence that anyone else is.
But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability, so as someone who is #TeamHarris, I can't help feeling worried seeing Trump is currently a warm favourite.
Hopefully, that will change as more data/information/exit polls come into the public domain, shaping the market in favour of Harris.
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 16,062
I wasn't implying that you were! I do GENUINELY think he is a character. Anyone who doesn't think he has a bigger public personality than Harris is mad. You only have to look at the way the two of them act at their respective rallies.I wasn't defending him.
You have a habit of getting needlessly carried away with your half-formed impression of what I am going on about
schmunk
Why oh why oh why?
I'm not a betting man either but to put my money where my mouth is I've just opened an account and backed Harris to win for £50 @ 2.5 (5/2)...
Mod: Merged - sorry had to delete the poll from the second thread.