jordanseagull
Well-known member
- Feb 11, 2009
- 4,157
Got any examples? Genuinely curious.
[Politics] Donald Trump, US President Elect 2025
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
Crawley Dingo
Political thread tourist.
- Mar 31, 2022
- 1,111
Sorry, but that’s rubbish. Order on the ballots is decided by a draw.
Positions on the ballot paper: How ballot draws work
Positions on the ballot paper: How ballot draws workwww.aec.gov.au
A draw for a reason.
Oh yes I agree with that. 99% is too far.
I do however think it is starting to look like she will win, and that it MIGHT be more comfortable than many expect.
Was reading it in these two:
Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists
Polling experts point to ‘fake polls’ exaggerating his support, with baseless lawsuits alleging fraud already filed
www.theguardian.com
AI deepfakes can sway voters and disrupt elections | FT Transact
Around 2bn voters will go to the polls this year, but for those looking to disrupt elections, AI-generated deepfakes could have significant political and economic repercussions. Tech companies and governments are working on ways to combat the spread of misinformation but, as the FT’s Hannah...
www.ft.com
The recent Trump surge was incredibly suspicious.Was reading it in these two:
Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists
Polling experts point to ‘fake polls’ exaggerating his support, with baseless lawsuits alleging fraud already filed
AI deepfakes can sway voters and disrupt elections | FT Transact
Around 2bn voters will go to the polls this year, but for those looking to disrupt elections, AI-generated deepfakes could have significant political and economic repercussions. Tech companies and governments are working on ways to combat the spread of misinformation but, as the FT’s Hannah...
Given everything that’s come before, it’s hard not to think we will hear in a few months or years that there was dodgy polling going on.
- Oct 20, 2022
- 7,245
- Thread starter
- #7,926
Yes indeed.Interesting article in the Guardina about polling
Dead-heat poll results are astonishing – and improbable, these experts say
It’s possible the tied race reflects not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsters
Basically backing up what I said above and have been saying for several days - the polling is not reliable enough for people to be calling a result here for one party or the other.
I certainly would not trust all these tweets flooding X (Elon Musk in charge of the chicken coop doesn’t give me much confidence!)) nor take anything the betting odds suggest seriously.
- Apr 5, 2014
- 26,345
I'm not sure the betting as it is, or the patterns, really matter. I'd offer BREXIT as an indicator. And early poll analysis is corruptible with the power of emphasis. I'd say it's a case of we won't know until Wednesday or whenever it is. It's even harder to work out what is going on over there than it is here. Truth is in the eye of the beholder.
There was no early voting with Brexit.
One of the main reasons I have some confidence is that all early actual quantifiable data looks pretty positive for Harris.
Last edited:
Indeed, the only thing (even though Trump won't believe it if he loses) that remains to be fact will be the actual votes now....
nwgull
Well-known member
Jon Ralston, a well-respected Nevada iournalist, does not seem to be saying the same thing. In terms of early voting by voters with registered affiliation, the Reps are ahead. Obviously registered Reps can vote for Harris.
- Oct 20, 2022
- 7,245
- Thread starter
- #7,933
You are assuming that votes for each candidate have been counted - they haven’t. Just the number of voters. There is no way of telling who they voted for except by assuming that in States where you have to register an affiliation with a Party to vote, those that all registered with Republicans will vote Trump and all those that registered as Democrats, will vote Harris and then guess how many of those are swing voters - there is no onus on voting for the affiliated party so it is just not verifiable data.
Also, Republicans tend more to vote in person on Election day rather than mail in ballots - early voting in person is probably about even.
Actual votes are pretty irrelevant in Trump’s dodgy plan to fiddle the Electoral College.
I’m fully aware of all of this.
I haven’t assumed the votes have been counted for each candidate at all.
Well someone's very wrong then. How do we find the truth?
- Apr 5, 2014
- 26,345
I'll let you know Wednesday. Absolutely. 100% I have SAUCES.
Ask Musk's America PAC to knock on every voter's door in the USA to find out.
5 minute job.
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 16,294
Jeez! How many more days of this predictive guesswork bollocks?!