Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
US Seagull
Well-known member
No idea what other states do, but I'd be surprised if they don't do something similar. Being top of the ballot state-wide is definitely perceived as an advantage.
US Seagull
Well-known member
nwgull
Well-known member
Reading the full tweet, it just says that 58% of early voting >65s are registered dems. It’s well established that registered dems are more likely to vote early, so it seems a fairly insignificant stat in terms of vote indication. It’s just spin.
The absolute meltdown the MAGA lot have had about this is incredible
... they need ALL democrats to get out and vote
US Seagull
Well-known member
TL.DR - but what I did read was nightmarish!
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 16,034
OK, fine. But you also LITERALLY typed and posted: 'Biden said he was going to choose a black woman. Biden said it.'
You got it wrong (at least once), just own it.
Electorate 52.5% women 46.5% male.
Grab them by the pussy won 2016.
Roe v Wade cost the garbage Nazi leader 2020.
Stated this week that he'll protect women whether they like it or not. Liz Cheney murder talk after that.
Brave political stance or ignorant.
Come on you Yankee birds, tarts, scrubbers, her indoors, floozies, whores, cleaners, cat women and tea makers. You have it in your hands to send the orangerapist paedo on his way.
Grab them by the pussy won 2016.
Roe v Wade cost the garbage Nazi leader 2020.
Stated this week that he'll protect women whether they like it or not. Liz Cheney murder talk after that.
Brave political stance or ignorant.
Come on you Yankee birds, tarts, scrubbers, her indoors, floozies, whores, cleaners, cat women and tea makers. You have it in your hands to send the orangerapist paedo on his way.
Iggle Piggle
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2010
- 5,952
Betting is give or take 60/40 Trump.
125 million staked on Betfair alone. Fascinating market.
125 million staked on Betfair alone. Fascinating market.
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,947
- Thread starter
- #7,876
It is absolutely ridiculous that X is being flooded with all these tweets making predictions about where it is all heading.
They are not reliable! The polling is not reliable. The betting is not reliable! Even the turnout is bucking typical trends.
www.nbcnews.com
It is just impossible to say who anyone is voting for with any degree of certainty and there are no consistent trends across the swing States - the maths are complex and any conclusions about which direction it is going risks being pyramid thinking based on accumulated layers of sand.
“In such cases, staring into the entrails of aggregate early voting reports in the hopes of extracting a prediction about what is to come seems like an exercise in futility. Our professional recommendation: Go take a walk and enjoy the fall weather instead. “
They are not reliable! The polling is not reliable. The betting is not reliable! Even the turnout is bucking typical trends.
What the early voting data shows about new voters — a group that could swing the election
Most early voters are regular voters, but the new voters turning out early include large numbers of Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona.
www.nbcnews.com
It is just impossible to say who anyone is voting for with any degree of certainty and there are no consistent trends across the swing States - the maths are complex and any conclusions about which direction it is going risks being pyramid thinking based on accumulated layers of sand.
“In such cases, staring into the entrails of aggregate early voting reports in the hopes of extracting a prediction about what is to come seems like an exercise in futility. Our professional recommendation: Go take a walk and enjoy the fall weather instead. “
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,909
I would ignore all early polls, suggestions about trends, 'this is happening, ooh look that's happening'. No-one can be assured about anything until the count is done. There is so much pointless bias. And should the Democrats have won, we know it will roll on.
I personally feel he will win. But I, like most, would rather he doesn't.
I personally feel he will win. But I, like most, would rather he doesn't.
Withdean South Stand
Well-known member
- Mar 2, 2014
- 646
Am I the only one who is confident Harris wins and by a significant margin?
US Seagull
Well-known member
Roe vs Wade was overturned in 2022.
Bob!
Coffee Buyer
- Jul 5, 2003
- 11,630