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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,942
Yet if Harris and the Democrats talk about 'the working-class', this will the be denounced as Marxist, and as hostility towards the middle-class.

Just as over here in the UK, the Labour Party is criticised if it refers explicitly to the working-class ('outdated class politics, divisive politics, anti-business', etc), but it's OK for the Tories to masquerade as 'the Party of the working-class', and accuse Labour of having abandoned the working-class in favour of 'identity politics'.

The other thing I can't get my head around is the claim/fear - cited above by previous posters - that Harris and the Democrats will increase State intervention, yet it is the Republicans who are urging bans or further restrictions on abortions, closing or defunding family-planning clinics, imposing bans on 'controversial' books in school or public libraries, blocking access to online 'adult entertainment' sites, etc.

I guess the Republicans, like many Tories and Reform UK supporters here in the UK, want freedom for themselves and people exactly like them, but discipline, conformity and punitive policies imposed on the people they don't like.

Not really - the “working class” in the US means something different from the “working class” in the UK. When we start using phrases such as “working class” in American economics, it is best to be clear what you mean. Economists in the United States generally define "working class" as adults without a college degree. Many members of the working class are also defined as middle-class. These blue collar, non-degree educated voters tend to lean towards Republican.

Much of what the American electorate understand about both the Republicans and Democrats it is how politics is presented in the media of course - The mainstream media like internet forums and social media have a natural proclivity for contentious and polarised debates.

IMO - comparing the right and left in the US with the Labour and Tories in the UK (while understandable as this is largely a British membership forum) is an unhelpful comparison - as @North Carolina Supporter said, the ‘left’ in the US is very different to our UK understanding of the ‘left’ as are definitions of ‘working class’. When we talk about ‘state intervention’ we don’t just mean in the moral and social affairs of the individual but management of the economy. America up until the 80s had a greater leaning towards laissez-faire economics than the UK which resulted in very high income inequalities which some have argued, became counterproductive to the health and stability of the American economy:

It’s argued that the “legacy of America’s great laissez-faire experiment is undermining the future well-being of America’s young workers and, in turn, their children. It is time to return to policies explicitly aimed at reducing income inequality by raising wage levels; increasing the taxation of top incomes and the regulation of the financial sector; increasing job and health security; and above all, increasing public and private investments in skills, neighborhoods, and public infrastructure.”

Probably something the Democrats need to get into their messaging in the final days of the campaign before it is too late.

 




Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,283
Cumbria
In the US, the “left” is oversimplified to mean anyone who is a Democrat. Anyone who believes in progressive tax policies, global warming, gun control, equal pay for equal work, more abortion access, etc.
This is what intrigues me. It puzzles me how moderates have grown weary of and are frightened of policies addressing the above. What is it that moderates are so frightened of that they turn to Trump instead?
 










Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,942
This is what intrigues me. It puzzles me how moderates have grown weary of and are frightened of policies addressing the above. What is it that moderates are so frightened of that they turn to Trump instead?
Are they ‘turning to Trump’ though or is Harris just not winning over the blue collar workers who are traditionally Republican as I suggested above? The States is basically evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats - the past decade of elections have been won on very slim majorities. Neither party has won big - Obama was the last President to win a clear majority on both the popular and electoral college.

The key for Harris will be to get out the vote - disenchanted Democrats are more likely to stay at home - and for her to win over existing Republicans ( some of whom have got behind her) by improving her messaging on the economy.

Otherwise it’s just another toss up election where the next POTUS will be elected on fine margins in a few key swing States which at the moment Trump is edging ahead on.
 


goldstone

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 5, 2003
7,179
And you think the alternative is a better option??
Read my post. I said Trump is "unbelievably awful". So, no I don't think the alternative to Harris is a better option. There is no better option. Americans are stuck with a choice between two wholly unacceptable candidates.
 


North Carolina Supporter

American Seagull
NSC Patron
This is what intrigues me. It puzzles me how moderates have grown weary of and are frightened of policies addressing the above. What is it that moderates are so frightened of that they turn to Trump instead?
Many of the moderates in the US are likened to a bipolar Goldilocks. They want both lower taxes and deficit reduction. They want immigration under control but cheap labor, too. They want gun control, but would like to keep their hunting rifles. They want Ukraine to win their war, but don’t want to fund it any longer. They want the US to be seen as the leader of the free world, but don’t want our military involved in other countries. They want clean energy, but it must cost the same as coal and oil. They want access to abortions, but only rape and incest victims to seek them. Harris has done a poor job (in the eyes of most moderates) of convincing the electorate that she is the best candidate for them. Trump wins every poll on “whom do you believe will be better for the Economy? Taxes? Immigration? Crime? Military?” Harris wins on Women’s Rights, Abortion, Environment… it’s important to note that in nearly every US election, both candidates start out with 45% of the electorate (regardless of their qualifications) The, the campaign is always for the 10% of so called “swing voters” that switch back-and-forth between Democratic and Republican voters. In the “swing states” of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada- Trump is winning 6 out of 10 of these voters… Harris still has a chance- but more swing voters in swing states are saying they will “hold their nose” and vote for Trump… not many! But enough to decide the election. THAT is what is frustrating to people like me- moderates who “split my ticket” and vote for Democrats as well as Republicans based on their qualifications… Harris has not done a good job convincing the moderates that she is their best choice for the economy, taxes, crime, immigration and the military… she has superior policies but inferior messaging…
 




Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,283
Cumbria
Many of the moderates in the US are likened to a bipolar Goldilocks. They want both lower taxes and deficit reduction. They want immigration under control but cheap labor, too. They want gun control, but would like to keep their hunting rifles. They want Ukraine to win their war, but don’t want to fund it any longer. They want the US to be seen as the leader of the free world, but don’t want our military involved in other countries. They want clean energy, but it must cost the same as coal and oil. They want access to abortions, but only rape and incest victims to seek them. Harris has done a poor job (in the eyes of most moderates) of convincing the electorate that she is the best candidate for them. Trump wins every poll on “whom do you believe will be better for the Economy? Taxes? Immigration? Crime? Military?” Harris wins on Women’s Rights, Abortion, Environment… it’s important to note that in nearly every US election, both candidates start out with 45% of the electorate (regardless of their qualifications) The, the campaign is always for the 10% of so called “swing voters” that switch back-and-forth between Democratic and Republican voters. In the “swing states” of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada- Trump is winning 6 out of 10 of these voters… Harris still has a chance- but more swing voters in swing states are saying they will “hold their nose” and vote for Trump… not many! But enough to decide the election. THAT is what is frustrating to people like me- moderates who “split my ticket” and vote for Democrats as well as Republicans based on their qualifications… Harris has not done a good job convincing the moderates that she is their best choice for the economy, taxes, crime, immigration and the military… she has superior policies but inferior messaging…
Many thanks - that's illuminating.

Basically folk want the best of both worlds! I can understand that. Still puzzled as to why they end up thinking Trump will deliver more - but there you go, and I suspect that's not something you're able to answer either!
 


North Carolina Supporter

American Seagull
NSC Patron
What are the policies they dislike so much?

I am asking in good faith here because it is hard to understand from the outside what she is doing that is so bad that Trump* and project 2025 is preferable.

* for context his long lists of negatives have been shared over and over on here, with his supporters seemingly unable to communicate any positives.
@BadFish I may have answered in a different post. But the policies that Trump “wins” more than 50% of the voters are
1. Inflation
2. Economy
3. Taxes
4. Defense/Military
5. Crime

Harris does better on
1. Education
2. Environment
3. Abortion Rights
 






Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,942
Many thanks - that's illuminating.

Basically folk want the best of both worlds! I can understand that. Still puzzled as to why they end up thinking Trump will deliver more - but there you go, and I suspect that's not something you're able to answer either!

Because Trump has been more effective in his messaging perhaps - focussed on the issues that really matter - in the rust belts it is the economy that working people especially in swing States like Penn are really concerned about…
 


North Carolina Supporter

American Seagull
NSC Patron
Are they ‘turning to Trump’ though or is Harris just not winning over the blue collar workers who are traditionally Republican as I suggested above? The States is basically evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats - the past decade of elections have been won on very slim majorities. Neither party has won big - Obama was the last President to win a clear majority on both the popular and electoral college.

The key for Harris will be to get out the vote - disenchanted Democrats are more likely to stay at home - and for her to win over existing Republicans ( some of whom have got behind her) by improving her messaging on the economy.

Otherwise it’s just another toss up election where the next POTUS will be elected on fine margins in a few key swing States which at the moment Trump is edging ahead on.
The oddsmakers are predicting Harris wins the overall vote but loses in the electoral college… just as Hillary Clinton did- and Al Gore as well… the reaction will be a push by the left to remove the antiquated Electoral College… which would require an amendment to our Constitution… which, in turn, requires two-thirds of our States to approve… which will not happen! Smaller states would never give up their “over represented power”… not to mention the fact that nearly every small state is “red” or Republican.
 


Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
Because Trump has been more effective in his messaging perhaps - focussed on the issues that really matter - in the rust belts it is the economy that working people especially in swing States like Penn are really concerned about…

I'm sure the numbers are out there, but it seems like Harris has done far less interviews/podcasts/rallys etc than Trump.

Trump seems to be everywhere daily, whilst Harris isn't
 
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Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,942
The oddsmakers are predicting Harris wins the overall vote but loses in the electoral college… just as Hillary Clinton did- and Al Gore as well… the reaction will be a push by the left to remove the antiquated Electoral College… which would require an amendment to our Constitution… which, in turn, requires two-thirds of our States to approve… which will not happen! Smaller states would never give up their “over represented power”… not to mention the fact that nearly every small state is “red” or Republican.
It’s looking that way. Going back to the first post on this thread back in 2022 - I just can’t believe we are here.

A massive failing on behalf of the Democrats to read the room over the past 24 months I think ☹️
 


US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,669
Cleveland, OH
The oddsmakers are predicting Harris wins the overall vote but loses in the electoral college… just as Hillary Clinton did- and Al Gore as well… the reaction will be a push by the left to remove the antiquated Electoral College… which would require an amendment to our Constitution… which, in turn, requires two-thirds of our States to approve… which will not happen! Smaller states would never give up their “over represented power”… not to mention the fact that nearly every small state is “red” or Republican.
There is an end run around the need for an amendment:


The idea is that if enough states a combined 270 EVs) agree that they will give their votes to the winner of the national popular vote, then the electoral college is moot.

Whether this is achievable is an open question, they current have 209 votes signed up. But it is a lower bar than for an amendment.
 


North Carolina Supporter

American Seagull
NSC Patron
Not really - the “working class” in the US means something different from the “working class” in the UK. When we start using phrases such as “working class” in American economics, it is best to be clear what you mean. Economists in the United States generally define "working class" as adults without a college degree. Many members of the working class are also defined as middle-class. These blue collar, non-degree educated voters tend to lean towards Republican.

Much of what the American electorate understand about both the Republicans and Democrats it is how politics is presented in the media of course - The mainstream media like internet forums and social media have a natural proclivity for contentious and polarised debates.

IMO - comparing the right and left in the US with the Labour and Tories in the UK (while understandable as this is largely a British membership forum) is an unhelpful comparison - as @North Carolina Supporter said, the ‘left’ in the US is very different to our UK understanding of the ‘left’ as are definitions of ‘working class’. When we talk about ‘state intervention’ we don’t just mean in the moral and social affairs of the individual but management of the economy. America up until the 80s had a greater leaning towards laissez-faire economics than the UK which resulted in very high income inequalities which some have argued, became counterproductive to the health and stability of the American economy:

It’s argued that the “legacy of America’s great laissez-faire experiment is undermining the future well-being of America’s young workers and, in turn, their children. It is time to return to policies explicitly aimed at reducing income inequality by raising wage levels; increasing the taxation of top incomes and the regulation of the financial sector; increasing job and health security; and above all, increasing public and private investments in skills, neighborhoods, and public infrastructure.”

Probably something the Democrats need to get into their messaging in the final days of the campaign before it is too late.

@Zeberdi I believe the British are far more aware of US politics than we are of yours. Frankly, there is very little interest by 99% of Americans in the affairs of other countries these days. I’d bet that 99% cannot name the leaders of our neighbors Mexico and Canada- much less the leaders of our Allies. 😔 embarrassing. In the US, when we hear “working class” it is synonymous with “wage sensitive jobs” like factory workers, landscapers, delivery drivers, hospitality staff, etc. They are most often paid by the hour. They live “paycheck to paycheck” and worry about being replaced by cheaper labor, or in Tesla factories, robots… the next over-simplified segment is often called “middle class” which are salaried and (mostly) earn bonuses and have decent health insurance. Some like to be known as “professionals” if they are accountants, lawyers, brokers, sales managers, etc. If you have a safe position within a stable profession- along with some investments or inheritance- then the label is often “upper middle class” The so-called Reagan Republicans were a large bloc of voters that worked in small towns with factories… steel mills in Pennsylvania and automobile plants in Michigan… furniture factories in North Carolina. These have all shutdown or are struggling to survive. so, I would argue that the US definition of “working class” is evolving from the stereotypical white man who used his hands to build something (cars, appliances, infrastructure) to, most often, a person of color who is working to earn enough to buy food and pay rent… sadly, they don’t see things getting better for the next generation… that is a profoundly dangerous trend in the US. When the working class “lose hope” it does not bode well
 






Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,942


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,942
@Zeberdi I believe the British are far more aware of US politics than we are of yours. Frankly, there is very little interest by 99% of Americans in the affairs of other countries these days. I’d bet that 99% cannot name the leaders of our neighbors Mexico and Canada- much less the leaders of our Allies. 😔 embarrassing. In the US, when we hear “working class” it is synonymous with “wage sensitive jobs” like factory workers, landscapers, delivery drivers, hospitality staff, etc. They are most often paid by the hour. They live “paycheck to paycheck” and worry about being replaced by cheaper labor, or in Tesla factories, robots… the next over-simplified segment is often called “middle class” which are salaried and (mostly) earn bonuses and have decent health insurance. Some like to be known as “professionals” if they are accountants, lawyers, brokers, sales managers, etc. If you have a safe position within a stable profession- along with some investments or inheritance- then the label is often “upper middle class” The so-called Reagan Republicans were a large bloc of voters that worked in small towns with factories… steel mills in Pennsylvania and automobile plants in Michigan… furniture factories in North Carolina. These have all shutdown or are struggling to survive. so, I would argue that the US definition of “working class” is evolving from the stereotypical white man who used his hands to build something (cars, appliances, infrastructure) to, most often, a person of color who is working to earn enough to buy food and pay rent… sadly, they don’t see things getting better for the next generation… that is a profoundly dangerous trend in the US. When the working class “lose hope” it does not bode well
Agree with all that.

Btw I’m always getting emails from my Aunt who seems forever astonished that I know so much about America politics!

She herself however, bases her understanding very much on MSM headline news and Royal correspondents 😉
 


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