- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,941
- Thread starter
- #6,541
There was a good analysis of this the other day that I posted a link too. In a nutshell, people’s perceptions of ‘when the economy was better’ now bear little relation to recent/current reality and facts. So even if, statistically and factually, Trump’s term was shit for the economy and Biden’s better, people hanker after ‘change from this’ and ‘going back to when it was better’ regardless. It’s not just a MAGA thing, it’s across society, and a sobering reason why Harris isn’t winning the economic issue the way she should be.
Largely this is true but also Covid complicates people’s perceptions of wealth - this election, much of the drive behind voter choice is a change from the status quo - traditionally, it is the incumbent that has an advantage when it comes to a second term but the post-Pandemic period which led to economic collapse in the US economy (and a sharp recession/inflation) still lingers in people’s mind. Ironically, it was also a time where people had more disposable income because they were not spending and the US also implemented a robust financial aid programme (arguably causing short-term inflation) - people still see their lives as pre-Covid and post-Covid. Whatever financial collapse the US suffered following Covid was short-lived and the economy now stronger than it has been for decades - however, the ending of Covid-specific financial assistance has left too many people behind.
As for Trump being better for the economy going forward into a second term for him - his exorbitant trade tariff proposals (which is a cornerstone for his isolationist economic ‘reforms’ ) are likely to:
- impose higher costs for US import businesses
- those costs are likely to be passed on to consumers
- his readiness to go to war with Iran will cause higher oil prices
- his economic plans would add at least $7.5 trillion to the national debt, or 150 percent of GDP, twice the total that Kamala Harris’s economic plans would add (according to Bloomberg)
sources
What Is the CARES Act?
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was a $2 trillion package of emergency assistance approved in 2020 in response to COVID-19.
www.investopedia.com
The post-pandemic economy
The pandemic’s later economic waves may be its biggest and most important.
press.princeton.edu
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