[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Zeberdi]

There was a good analysis of this the other day that I posted a link too. In a nutshell, people’s perceptions of ‘when the economy was better’ now bear little relation to recent/current reality and facts. So even if, statistically and factually, Trump’s term was shit for the economy and Biden’s better, people hanker after ‘change from this’ and ‘going back to when it was better’ regardless. It’s not just a MAGA thing, it’s across society, and a sobering reason why Harris isn’t winning the economic issue the way she should be.

Largely this is true but also Covid complicates people’s perceptions of wealth - this election, much of the drive behind voter choice is a change from the status quo - traditionally, it is the incumbent that has an advantage when it comes to a second term but the post-Pandemic period which led to economic collapse in the US economy (and a sharp recession/inflation) still lingers in people’s mind. Ironically, it was also a time where people had more disposable income because they were not spending and the US also implemented a robust financial aid programme (arguably causing short-term inflation) - people still see their lives as pre-Covid and post-Covid. Whatever financial collapse the US suffered following Covid was short-lived and the economy now stronger than it has been for decades - however, the ending of Covid-specific financial assistance has left too many people behind.

As for Trump being better for the economy going forward into a second term for him - his exorbitant trade tariff proposals (which is a cornerstone for his isolationist economic ‘reforms’ ) are likely to:

• impose higher costs for US import businesses
• those costs are likely to be passed on to consumers
• his readiness to go to war with Iran will cause higher oil prices
• his economic plans would add at least $7.5 trillion to the national debt, or 150 percent of GDP, twice the total that Kamala Harris’s economic plans would add (according to Bloomberg)

sources

What Is the CARES Act?

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was a $2 trillion package of emergency assistance approved in 2020 in response to COVID-19.

www.investopedia.com

The post-pandemic economy

The pandemic’s later economic waves may be its biggest and most important.

press.princeton.edu

 

[nwgull]

If Trump wins they won't miss the next time as it will be from within.

Unless the Harris team pulls something out the bag, he looks like he IS going to win. It’s been a slow shift, but momentum definitely seems to have turned back in his favour since his disastrous debate.

Greatest country in the world my arse.

 

[beorhthelm]

saw some betting markets other day that suggests backing for Trump. seems from a distance Harris has reverted to quiet and thats not something that works well for any election, with good news coming from supporting media rather than direct from her camp.

 

[sparkie]

In 3 weeks it will be confirmed that Trump has won.

Which means Putin has also won.

The world is doomed.

 

[peterward]

Certainly hits the mark

 

[Mellotron]

In our discussions around this, I think it really comes down to the belief that Trump is better for a strong US economy, and a strong US economy is best for her family's ongoing prosperity and quality of life.

Which is obviously an utterly insane view given its well known he is a horrifically bad businessman.

That's what I don't get.

 

[nicko31]

In 3 weeks it will be confirmed that Trump has won.

Which means Putin has also won.

The world is doomed.

We don't know, remember the mid-terms, polling was way out.

If he wins its bad and for Putin his dream come true. If he loses he won't accept the result AGAIN. He really has had a very corrosive effect on US politics and it will be hard to undo, its what wannabe fascists do.

Remember folks the same media organisation who is DT's biggest cheerleader has its tentacles all over our media too.

 

[Mellotron]

Unless the Harris team pulls something out the bag, he looks like he IS going to win. It’s been a slow shift, but momentum definitely seems to have turned back in his favour since his disastrous debate.

Greatest country in the world my arse.

A very slow shift, given 2.4% was the lead exactly a month ago. It's barely moved at all.

What are you seeing that makes you think otherwise? It's very common that polls show races tightening in the final weeks, but he's still behind in pretty much every respectable poll.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

View attachment 190375
A very slow shift, given 2.4% was the lead exactly a month ago. It's barely moved at all.

What are you seeing that makes you think otherwise? It's very common that polls show races tightening in the final weeks, but he's still behind in pretty much every respectable poll.

Probably fear that the Americans will do the unconscionable and vote in the bleach drinking lunatic once again. It gnaws at one, you know.

 

[nwgull]

View attachment 190375
A very slow shift, given 2.4% was the lead exactly a month ago. It's barely moved at all.

What are you seeing that makes you think otherwise? It's very common that polls show races tightening in the final weeks, but he's still behind in pretty much every respectable poll.

These are national polls, and Harris probably will win the popular vote. She needs a lead of about 4% to convert this to an electoral college win, and it’s slowly shifting away from that week by week.

The betting markets agree with my pessimistic feelings. Trump is now 1.7 and Harris 2.5. He was about 2.2 a few weeks ago.

 

[nicko31]

In another era this film would kill a candidate dead. But it just adds to Trump's "victim" playbook which he will try and exploit. It doesn't help that those involved in producing the film and acting in it take a very political position as anti-Trump.

Donald Trump's criticism of The Apprentice film 'all the more reason' to see it, star Jeremy Strong says

Succession star Jeremy Strong plays notorious lawyer Roy Cohn in the new film The Apprentice.

news.sky.com

 

[Withdean South Stand]

These are national polls, and Harris probably will win the popular vote. She needs a lead of about 4% to convert this to an electoral college win, and it’s slowly shifting away from that week by week.

The betting markets agree with my pessimistic feelings. Trump is now 1.7 and Harris 2.5. He was about 2.2 a few weeks ago.

The 4% thing isn't right, she could have a much bigger lead than that and lose the electoral college because it only comes down to those certain states which determine the outcome. If Harris wins Georgia then Trump is in big trouble and there has been record turnout on the first day of voting, which hopefully will be good news for Kamala and sanity. Pennsylvania is the crucial state but Harris can afford to lose it, if she wins Georgia and another of the key swing states. Trump losing Georgia would make it very hard for him to get to 270.

Personally, my confidence in the outcome of the election is unshaken. It will be Harris in the electoral college but it will be far less comfortable than it should be. It is ridiculous that it's a statistical dead heat in this case.

 

[peterward]

Unless the Harris team pulls something out the bag, he looks like he IS going to win. It’s been a slow shift, but momentum definitely seems to have turned back in his favour since his disastrous debate.

Greatest country in the world my arse.

There's a lot of commentary in US, including republican pollsters, that many of the GOP backed polls are vastly overinflated...... and for one specific reason.

When Harris wins they're going to claim election fraud again, and try another all or nothing coup.

 

[BBassic]

Something I was thinking about earlier was the relative speed with which this election seems to have arrived.

I distinctly recall feeling that Trump's term was interminably long whereas Biden's has apparently gone in a flash.

Part of me wonders if its just because, for most of these last four years, there hasn't been a relentless stream of clown show madness from the leader of the free world.

 

[Mellotron]

Most of the signs point to a narrow Harris win to me, but unfortunately it seems that is exactly what Trump and his team are already preparing for.

 

[aolstudios]

Something I was thinking about earlier was the relative speed with which this election seems to have arrived.

I distinctly recall feeling that Trump's term was interminably long whereas Biden's has apparently gone in a flash.

Part of me wonders if its just because, for most of these last four years, there hasn't been a relentless stream of clown show madness from the leader of the free world.

Well, exactly

 

[Bodian]

View attachment 190375
A very slow shift, given 2.4% was the lead exactly a month ago. It's barely moved at all.

What are you seeing that makes you think otherwise? It's very common that polls show races tightening in the final weeks, but he's still behind in pretty much every respectable poll.

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/15/nx-s1-5153420/swing-state-map-donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls

 

[London Irish]

Unless the Harris team pulls something out the bag, he looks like he IS going to win. It’s been a slow shift, but momentum definitely seems to have turned back in his favour since his disastrous debate.

Greatest country in the world my arse.

She's had a catastrophic run since the debate (where she did well), all she's done since then is cuddle up George Bush era ghouls who everyone hates except maybe a hardcore of Trumpists who'll never vote for her. Meanwhile she's cratering the enthusiasm of her base by saying loudly she loves war crimes of yesteryear as well as nowadays. An object lesson in Hillary-style 2016 incompetence

 

[JBizzle]

Something I was thinking about earlier was the relative speed with which this election seems to have arrived.

I distinctly recall feeling that Trump's term was interminably long whereas Biden's has apparently gone in a flash.

Part of me wonders if its just because, for most of these last four years, there hasn't been a relentless stream of clown show madness from the leader of the free world.

This is true, but also bear in mind that during the last Trump administration we were all living through the pandemic and it's impact, the May and Johnson governments, the Brexit withdrawal farce... Everything was going down the toilet during that point, particularly in the UK.

 

[Withdean South Stand]

She's had a catastrophic run since the debate (where she did well), all she's done since then is cuddle up George Bush era ghouls who everyone hates except maybe a hardcore of Trumpists who'll never vote for her. Meanwhile she's cratering the enthusiasm of her base by saying loudly she loves war crimes of yesteryear as well as nowadays. An object lesson in Hillary-style 2016 incompetence

Jesus, what on earth have you been watching/reading/listening to?!

That's madness and entirely divorced from the reality of her campaigning.