[News] Middle East conflict

GingerBeerMan said:

I asked if Iran would pose a tougher foe that Sadam Hussain, you seem pretty clued up. Any idea?

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Iran vs. Israel redux: The enormous difficulties and ramifications if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear sites

After Israel's attack, the Iranian regime may see the actual weaponization of its nuclear program as the only option left that can guarantee its security.

thebulletin.org

States like these and their terrorist allies constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger…. We'll be deliberate; yet, time is not on our side. I will not wait on events while dangers gather. I will not stand by as peril draws closer and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons.

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• that you need an exit strategy before you commit,
• you need to be sure of your intelligence, and have clear objectives.
• you need a concensus of opinion and most of all
• leave the world more stable than it was before you went in.

• It was a very broad international coalition against terror that was fighting the Ba’ath Party and Saddam‘s Republican Guard
• the allied troops were able to launch an invasion from Kuwait - I doubt Iraq would be willing for Israel and western allies to launch an attack from Iraq on Iran.
• Iran is also like Afghanistan very mountainous
• at the first sign of attack, Israel would be fighting an onslaught of very well armed militia groups with an impressive missile arsenal on 3 fronts - Yemen, Lebanon, Syria ( and possibly Hamas in Gaza still) as well as Iran.

GingerBeerMan said:

I asked if Iran would pose a tougher foe that Sadam Hussain, you seem pretty clued up. Any idea?

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Bakero said:

In terms of personnel, we're talking similar numbers. Iraq had one of the largest armies in the world under Saddam and Iran are up there in terms of numbers. Likewise, both have (had) a fair bit of kit.

Iran have been cut off from the international arms market since the revolution other than some sales from Russia. They have a lot of domestically produced gear though.

Compared to Israel, Iran's budget is rather small though (about a third). And obviously Israel have all the latest tech.

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Zeberdi said:

(It would be interesting what impact an war with Iran might have on the Russian Ukraine war - )

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armchairclubber said:

Would it now.

You're talking it up again.

I'd rather not see it myself.

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Zeberdi said:

Redirect Notice

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Zeberdi said:

I realised I didn’t really answer your question @GingerBeerMan sorry but imo Iran would be a much harder adversary than Iraq for a number of reasons (just a lay person’s opinion!)

Even the war in Iraq took 8 years; cost the US an estimated $3 trillion and caused an estimated 461,000 deaths in Iraq. American forces are still based in Iraq 13 years later - It was a pyrrhic victory and Saddam’s regime was a tough nut.


We learnt a lot of lessons from that war, not least:

• that you need an exit strategy before you commit,
• you need to be sure of your intelligence, and have clear objectives.
• you need a concensus of opinion and most of all
• leave the world more stable than it was before you went in.

The War in Iraq against Saddam Hussein failed on every count above imo. but there were aspects that would have made it easier than launching a similar campaign against Iran;

• It was a very broad international coalition against terror that was fighting the Ba’ath Party and Saddam‘s Republican Guard
• the allied troops were able to launch an invasion from Kuwait - I doubt Iraq would be willing for Israel and western allies to launch an attack from Iraq on Iran.
• Iran is also like Afghanistan very mountainous
• at the first sign of attack, Israel would be fighting an onslaught of very well armed militia groups with an impressive missile arsenal on 3 fronts - Yemen, Lebanon, Syria ( and possibly Hamas in Gaza still) as well as Iran.

We went into Iraq under the pretence of looking for WMDs but it was all about regime change. I think it would be very difficult to see out that objective today - wars always have mission creep and always last much longer than the protagonists say it will. The public has lost its appetite for expensive and protracted conflicts.

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armchairclubber said:

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nicko31 said:

BAE, Rolls Royce....

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sydney said:

i just can't believe , that at this stage in our supposed human development , we are considering sanctioning a major obliteration ........this is fuckin unreal and has global implications , can't believe it ....totally ridiculous.

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The Clamp said:

Although I obviously agree with everything said in the video, for some reason it really annoyed me.

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Crawley Dingo said:

I think Israel will hit Iran's Oil depot on the island in the Gulf next.

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