Ww1?It's a given that we can only speculate how this will all end.
I'm no historian, but I can only recall one instance in the last 150 years where Russia has backed down. In Afghanistan fighting the Muhadajine terrorists (now called Taliban?). From my recollection, they pulled out as eventually they realised is was a conflict in which they could not succeed. Probably similar to the reasons US UK et al left Afghanistan more recently.
Clearly we are in different circumstances. Ukraine is not Afghanistan and the reasons for Russia being there are not the same. But perhaps most different is Putin is not the same as the Russian leader of that Afghan conflict (forgotten who it was now, Bresniev?).
Can anyone remind us the detail of how that conflict was ended? Are there any similarities?
WW2?Ww1?
Good point - probably thousands more.The number of Russian dead perhaps excludes those disposed of by the mobile crematoria
They didn't give up in WW2WW2?
True. But were it not for the winter intervening, they would have.They didn't give up in WW2
I absolutely take your last point. The possible descent into anarchy following a power vacuum in Moscow, with regional warlords getting hold of loose nukes, was discussed by several Youtubers in 2022. Not something any western government would be aiming for.I can’t remember the detail behind the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan, but I think they began to realise ( like the US) that it was a war that they weren’t going to win. I think too that the casualties became unacceptably high, leading to increasing protest from bereaved Mums and widows. Given the Russian casualties are significantly greater in Ukraine than Afghanistan, as we’ve said on here before, you would have thought Putin will find it increasingly difficult to keep a lid on the voice of the bereaved.
As far as Russia’s previous war record, they didn’t cover themselves in glory in Chechnya, though they would no doubt dismiss that as an internal dust up rather than a war.
I’ve just started to read Mark Galleotti’s “Putin’s Wars” which gives a lot of interesting insight into the Russian armed services and how it’s been allowed to decay over the past 30 years. I think we’d all like to see the back of Putin but we ought to be concerned that it doesn’t then turn into a lawless country where there’s no control over its military arsenal.
More Bavovna!
2 more ammo dumps hit. This is one of them.
Yes agreed, and if they are only listed as missing, not dead, no compensation needs to be paid to the familiesThe number of Russian dead perhaps excludes those disposed of by the mobile crematoria
Yes agreed, and if they are only listed as missing, not dead, no compensation needs to be paid to the families
Indeed.I wouldn't trust them to make payments anyway. Anyone complaining would just get locked up, sent to war, disposed of.
I know I've said this before, but how do you get inside the heads of people who have never known democracy?Indeed.
Ref the fact that Russians can now be sent to the front if they have just been accused of a crime...they no longer need to be found guilty.
And STILL their population is 'happy'.
It's fine...my thoughts and frustrations also go in constant circles!I know I've said this before, but how do you get inside the heads of people who have never known democracy?
People who have been born, lived their whole lives, and died under oppression? And their parents.
(Stop me if you think I'm going round in circles, repeating myself from months or years ago).
That's a good point.It's fine...my thoughts and frustrations also go in constant circles!
Russia's withdrawal from Afghanistan was partly (maybe not much?) pressured by wives and mothers of the casualties.
Given the far higher numbers of Russian casualties in this war, it suggests Russia has a FAR stronger grip on the population than before (media, arrests, crackdowns, influencers, mobilisation threat...)
That’s a difficult challenge. You quoted Jonathan Fink in an earlier post ie people having to see it and feel it before believing it. The increasing casualties and stories from the front line can’t be kept quiet indefinitely even if they try to keep conscription away from the main population centres. Attacks on Russian soil will also become more widely know. But will it be enough to motivate the ordinary citizen to change their views and do anything? I hope so but doubt it.I know I've said this before, but how do you get inside the heads of people who have never known democracy?
People who have been born, lived their whole lives, and died under oppression? And their parents.
(Stop me if you think I'm going round in circles, repeating myself from months or years ago).
Ah yes...I'd forgotten about the fake groups of enthusiastic wives and mothers encouraging new volunteersThat's a good point.
Putin has learned from the experience from Afghanistan (extra oppression required for awkward wives and mothers), to such an extent that he now organises fake groups of soldiers wives and mothers to soak up new wives and mothers in search of a home.
I wonder what he does with all the injured soldiers? Perhaps he locks them away somewhere, far out of sight.
I also doubt it .That’s a difficult challenge. You quoted Jonathan Fink in an earlier post ie people having to see it and feel it before believing it. The increasing casualties and stories from the front line can’t be kept quiet indefinitely even if they try to keep conscription away from the main population centres. Attacks on Russian soil will also become more widely know. But will it be enough to motivate the ordinary citizen to change their views and do anything? I hope so but doubt it.
I also doubt it .
For me, if internal pressure is to reach Putin's door, it will come from the 'elites' whose comfortable jet-setting lives and bank accounts have become restricted.
In fact, they may offer an off-ramp to Putin one day ... if they get enough on their side.
I doubt it as well.That’s a difficult challenge. You quoted Jonathan Fink in an earlier post ie people having to see it and feel it before believing it. The increasing casualties and stories from the front line can’t be kept quiet indefinitely even if they try to keep conscription away from the main population centres. Attacks on Russian soil will also become more widely know. But will it be enough to motivate the ordinary citizen to change their views and do anything? I hope so but doubt it.