[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Albion my Albion said:

I believe Trump said that childcare is childcare and it's necessary and that if elected Trump will put heavy tariffs on other countries and raise lots of money which will some how through osmosis create the money and personnel needed by American families to pay for child care. How it will not make it to the pockets of the super rich through tax cuts truly baffles me and many others. But that is Trump thinking.

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bhafc99 said:

That's a fair summary, though in all honesty I was so distracted by the way his hair seems to float over his head like a cloud of sugar icing on a cake that I wasn't paying close attention. Basically, it's economics as imagined by a 10 year old.

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Couldn't Be Hyypia said:

Is it worrying that the Poll of polls has Trump slightly closing the gap? Harris campaign losing some momentum after the initial surge?

Lets hope not and that the debate reinvigorates her.

3.7% lead on August 23rd, now 3.1%

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• All polling where Harris has been in the lead has been well within the margin of error
• As stated a few days ago, Harris and Trump are for all intents and purposes level pegging in key swing states and it will be the voting in about 7 key swing states that will have a disproportionate influence on election outcome.
• National polls don’t give a very accurate indication of the election outcome because of the electoral college (where winning some States will carry more weight than others)

bhafc99 said:

That's a fair summary, though in all honesty I was so distracted by the way his hair seems to float over his head like a cloud of sugar icing on a cake that I wasn't paying close attention. Basically, it's economics as imagined by a 10 year old.

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bhafc99 said:

Basically, it's economics as imagined by a 10 year old.

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Albion my Albion said:

I believe Trump said that childcare is childcare and it's necessary and that if elected Trump will put heavy tariffs on other countries and raise lots of money which will some how through osmosis create the money and personnel needed by American families to pay for child care. How it will not make it to the pockets of the super rich through tax cuts truly baffles me and many others. But that is Trump thinking.

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Zeberdi said:

I agree that the debate may energise Harris but debates tend to lose voters if candidates do badly rather than gain candidates if they do well unfortunately. A very poor performance from Trump therefore will have more positive impact for Harris than a very good performance from Harris will do for her. She will be hoping imo, that he will go off script and launch into personal insults which will allow her to ‘go high’ and focus on policy.


The election maybe even closer that you suggest -

• All polling where Harris has been in the lead has been well within the margin of error
• As stated a few days ago, Harris and Trump are for all intents and purposes level pegging in key swing states and it will be the voting in about 7 key swing states that will have a disproportionate influence on election outcome.
• National polls don’t give a very accurate indication of the election outcome because of the electoral college (where winning some States will carry more weight than others)

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US Seagull said:

Another interesting note on polling is that in many states, the Democratic senate candidate is polling far ahead of Harris. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is running way ahead of his Trump endorsed challenger. Since ballot splitting is actually quite rare these days, this might suggest that either the polesters model of the senate is off, or their model of the presidential race is off.

Of course, nobody will know for sure until November.

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beorhthelm said:

could mean the Senator is popular while Harris support is more tepid. dont knows really screw up direct comparison in polling. though as i write i see what you mean, they'll swing behind Harris in the end.

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Albion my Albion said:

I truly believe that many MAGA wives, daughters and younger sons will poll one way but once they get in the voting booth or fill out the ballot at home they will vote for Harris because the inner hate for Trump will get unleashed. "Yes, dear, of course I voted for Trump" [wink to her daughter]

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Crawley Dingo said:

Do you know any MAGA? The ones I know its the MAGA wives that are driving this! Especially the Latinas, they are real firebrands.

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Crawley Dingo said:

So the sentencing of Trump has been postponed to next year ref the NY lawfare case about hush money.

Also a court has ordered RFK's name removed from the ballot in Michigan against DNC desires.

23 days to the SAVE act where voter ID will be mandatory.

If its a fair election then Harris is toast.

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Couldn't Be Hyypia said:

Is it worrying that the Poll of polls has Trump slightly closing the gap? Harris campaign losing some momentum after the initial surge?

Lets hope not and that the debate reinvigorates her.

View attachment 188516

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

3.7% lead on August 23rd, now 3.1%

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T.G said:

The man is a convicted felon…delaying his sentencing is profoundly unfair. He should face justice like anyone else. A dangerous precedent!!!

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Crawley Dingo said:

The conviction is profoundly unsound and subject to appeal. If you were the judge would you jail Trump that could possibly start a war?

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