[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Albion my Albion]

I believe Trump said that childcare is childcare and it's necessary and that if elected Trump will put heavy tariffs on other countries and raise lots of money which will some how through osmosis create the money and personnel needed by American families to pay for child care. How it will not make it to the pockets of the super rich through tax cuts truly baffles me and many others. But that is Trump thinking.

 

[bhafc99]

I believe Trump said that childcare is childcare and it's necessary and that if elected Trump will put heavy tariffs on other countries and raise lots of money which will some how through osmosis create the money and personnel needed by American families to pay for child care. How it will not make it to the pockets of the super rich through tax cuts truly baffles me and many others. But that is Trump thinking.

That's a fair summary, though in all honesty I was so distracted by the way his hair seems to float over his head like a cloud of sugar icing on a cake that I wasn't paying close attention. Basically, it's economics as imagined by a 10 year old.

 

[Albion my Albion]

That's a fair summary, though in all honesty I was so distracted by the way his hair seems to float over his head like a cloud of sugar icing on a cake that I wasn't paying close attention. Basically, it's economics as imagined by a 10 year old.

And it makes America Great Again SOMEHOW!

 

[Zeberdi]

Is it worrying that the Poll of polls has Trump slightly closing the gap? Harris campaign losing some momentum after the initial surge?

Lets hope not and that the debate reinvigorates her.

3.7% lead on August 23rd, now 3.1%

I agree that the debate may energise Harris but debates tend to lose voters if candidates do badly rather than gain candidates if they do well unfortunately. A very poor performance from Trump therefore will have more positive impact for Harris than a very good performance from Harris will do for her. She will be hoping imo, that he will go off script and launch into personal insults which will allow her to ‘go high’ and focus on policy.


The election maybe even closer that you suggest -

• All polling where Harris has been in the lead has been well within the margin of error
• As stated a few days ago, Harris and Trump are for all intents and purposes level pegging in key swing states and it will be the voting in about 7 key swing states that will have a disproportionate influence on election outcome.
• National polls don’t give a very accurate indication of the election outcome because of the electoral college (where winning some States will carry more weight than others)

 

[schmunk]

That's a fair summary, though in all honesty I was so distracted by the way his hair seems to float over his head like a cloud of sugar icing on a cake that I wasn't paying close attention. Basically, it's economics as imagined by a 10 year old.

You can see why The Donald hates being shown in profile. That lighting really shows up his true hairline.

 

[Triggaaar]

Basically, it's economics as imagined by a 10 year old.

Only if that 10 year old is a compulsive liar.

Trump doesn't necessarily believe his own guff. If just raising taxes on foreign countries was a way to make America rich again, he'd have done it last time.

 

[US Seagull]

I believe Trump said that childcare is childcare and it's necessary and that if elected Trump will put heavy tariffs on other countries and raise lots of money which will some how through osmosis create the money and personnel needed by American families to pay for child care. How it will not make it to the pockets of the super rich through tax cuts truly baffles me and many others. But that is Trump thinking.

Trump is still convinced that somehow putting tarrifs on goods, a cost that will be passed on to consumers, will somehow leave us with more money for childcare.

 

[US Seagull]

I agree that the debate may energise Harris but debates tend to lose voters if candidates do badly rather than gain candidates if they do well unfortunately. A very poor performance from Trump therefore will have more positive impact for Harris than a very good performance from Harris will do for her. She will be hoping imo, that he will go off script and launch into personal insults which will allow her to ‘go high’ and focus on policy.


The election maybe even closer that you suggest -

• All polling where Harris has been in the lead has been well within the margin of error
• As stated a few days ago, Harris and Trump are for all intents and purposes level pegging in key swing states and it will be the voting in about 7 key swing states that will have a disproportionate influence on election outcome.
• National polls don’t give a very accurate indication of the election outcome because of the electoral college (where winning some States will carry more weight than others)

Another interesting note on polling is that in many states, the Democratic senate candidate is polling far ahead of Harris. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is running way ahead of his Trump endorsed challenger. Since ballot splitting is actually quite rare these days, this might suggest that either the polesters model of the senate is off, or their model of the presidential race is off.

Of course, nobody will know for sure until November.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

This next poll could be Presidiency-defining...

 

[beorhthelm]

Another interesting note on polling is that in many states, the Democratic senate candidate is polling far ahead of Harris. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is running way ahead of his Trump endorsed challenger. Since ballot splitting is actually quite rare these days, this might suggest that either the polesters model of the senate is off, or their model of the presidential race is off.

Of course, nobody will know for sure until November.

could mean the Senator is popular while Harris support is more tepid. dont knows really screw up direct comparison in polling. though as i write i see what you mean, they'll swing behind Harris in the end.

 

[Albion my Albion]

could mean the Senator is popular while Harris support is more tepid. dont knows really screw up direct comparison in polling. though as i write i see what you mean, they'll swing behind Harris in the end.

I truly believe that many MAGA wives, daughters and younger sons will poll one way but once they get in the voting booth or fill out the ballot at home they will vote for Harris because the inner hate for Trump will get unleashed. "Yes, dear, of course I voted for Trump" [wink to her daughter]

 

[Crawley Dingo]

So the sentencing of Trump has been postponed to next year ref the NY lawfare case about hush money.

Also a court has ordered RFK's name removed from the ballot in Michigan against DNC desires.

23 days to the SAVE act where voter ID will be mandatory.

If its a fair election then Harris is toast.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

I truly believe that many MAGA wives, daughters and younger sons will poll one way but once they get in the voting booth or fill out the ballot at home they will vote for Harris because the inner hate for Trump will get unleashed. "Yes, dear, of course I voted for Trump" [wink to her daughter]

Do you know any MAGA? The ones I know its the MAGA wives that are driving this! Especially the Latinas, they are real firebrands.

 

[US Seagull]

Former Vice President Dick Cheney says he will vote for Harris

His daughter, former Rep. Liz Cheney, offered her endorsement of the Democratic presidential nominee earlier this week.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Weststander]

Do you know any MAGA? The ones I know its the MAGA wives that are driving this! Especially the Latinas, they are real firebrands.

The exception that proves the rule. Within that subset, there’ll always be right wing Cubans who thank GOP for being strongest against Castro.

However, Democrats / Harris polling from women in general and all ethnic minorities is way ahead of Trump’s.

 

[T.G]

So the sentencing of Trump has been postponed to next year ref the NY lawfare case about hush money.

Also a court has ordered RFK's name removed from the ballot in Michigan against DNC desires.

23 days to the SAVE act where voter ID will be mandatory.

If its a fair election then Harris is toast.

The man is a convicted felon…delaying his sentencing is profoundly unfair. He should face justice like anyone else. A dangerous precedent!!!

 

[raymondo]

Is it worrying that the Poll of polls has Trump slightly closing the gap? Harris campaign losing some momentum after the initial surge?

Lets hope not and that the debate reinvigorates her.

View attachment 188516

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

3.7% lead on August 23rd, now 3.1%

So, looking at the chart, a naive (and possibly incorrect ) conclusion from me is that Harris is winning over 'undecideds', whereas Trump's support is remarkably stable.
In which case, Harris needs to convince her new 'recruits' to stay the course... and actually vote!!

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Met up with some old pals from Pittsburgh this afternoon. They explained to me that Trump plans to take away the power of 'quangos', such as the NIH, judiciary etc and put decision making directly in the hands of the Senate. So if the NIH says that oxycodone is bad, the Senate can overrule and allow it to be sold. Conflict of interest will become 'outmoded'.

He also plans to devolve more power to states. So, for example, if you live in Texas where abortion is illegal, and go to California to have an abortion, when yet get back home you will be arrested and go to jail.

My pals also told me that Trump has only two agendas:

1. Become president again to avoid jail and
2. Become president again to exact revenge on all those who thwarted him last time.

For Christ's sake, Americans. Don't let this mad 78 year old man-child on the loose again.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

The man is a convicted felon…delaying his sentencing is profoundly unfair. He should face justice like anyone else. A dangerous precedent!!!

The conviction is profoundly unsound and subject to appeal. If you were the judge would you jail Trump that could possibly start a war?

 

[Bodian]

The conviction is profoundly unsound and subject to appeal. If you were the judge would you jail Trump that could possibly start a war?

He's not likely to jail him, and anyway any sentence would be on hold till the appeal was done. Why would it start a war - are you saying that Trump supporters are inherently violent or something?