[Finance] The cryptocurrency (Bitcoin etc) thread

RandyWanger · Sep 4, 2024

Weststander said:
Haven’t the institutions bought so that they hold some (but relatively very small to their total investments/fungibles) interest, should it prove a long term winner?

Yes. Exactly my position too and the same advice anyone would give. Diversify.

chickens said:
A genuine question, if institutions are buying in large quantities, and all transactions (regardless of retail or institutional) are recorded on the blockchain, why is the price dropping?

For me, significant institutional interest would cause a corresponding rise in retail interest, as individuals hopped on the gravy train and waited for the token in question to “go to the moon” as I believe the saying goes.

I think it's due to the confiscated and recovered coins that have been put back into exchanges. FTX, Mt Gox, the German Movie2k stash etc...

chickens · Sep 4, 2024

beorhthelm said:
Ethereum. it's been used to raise hundreds of billions in funding, with secure distribution of tokens to investors.. *cough* i mean holders, demonstrating core function of smart contracts.

btw i'm deeply cycnical about the long term prospects for most utility tokens, the contradiction of higher value and lower cost will be realised eventually, and there are simply far too many. along the way there is huge upsides though and we're not going to see them go away because its unregulated money raising market.

Ok, so, Ethereum you say, I go looking for real world uses for Ethereum, and although there aren’t any household names, I see that there are card trading games that use ETH to keep score, and keep track of who owns game related NFTs. I see that there are lots of apps (albeit mainly relating to ETH itself) that position themselves as decentralised finance apps. Most involve themselves with moving money between wallets.

I can’t argue against the fact its price has increased, and that there do appear to be projects using it, but what I can’t determine is whether any of these projects are legitimate (do what they claim) and/or are anything more than a money launderer’s wet dream. I also can’t determine if any of these projects are profitable, or the creation of hobbyists as a technical exercise.

The barriers to adoption strike me as technical (transaction throughput) and legal/political (How long will national governments and central banks permit unregulated funding-raising in unregulated currencies?)

When the barriers go up, (brokers/exchanges must Know Your Client) - and the anonymity is gone, is it not going to immediately collapse in a heap?

Edit: these are all long posts, apologies everyone.

Mr Phil · Sep 4, 2024

chickens said:
I can’t argue against the fact its price has increased, and that there do appear to be projects using it, but what I can’t determine is whether any of these projects are legitimate (do what they claim) and/or are anything more than a money launderer’s wet dream. I also can’t determine if any of these projects are profitable, or the creation of hobbyists as a technical exercise.

I also question why these can only be done on ETH and not on already existing infrastructure. What benefit is there to decentralizing a trading card game scoring system?

beorhthelm · Sep 4, 2024

chickens said:
Ok, so, Ethereum you say, I go looking for real world uses for Ethereum, and although there aren’t any household names, I see that there are card trading games that use ETH to keep score, and keep track of who owns game related NFTs. I see that there are lots of apps (albeit mainly relating to ETH itself) that position themselves as decentralised finance apps. Most involve themselves with moving money between wallets.

I can’t argue against the fact its price has increased, and that there do appear to be projects using it, but what I can’t determine is whether any of these projects are legitimate (do what they claim) and/or are anything more than a money launderer’s wet dream. I also can’t determine if any of these projects are profitable, or the creation of hobbyists as a technical exercise.

The barriers to adoption strike me as technical (transaction throughput) and legal/political (How long will national governments and central banks permit unregulated funding-raising in unregulated currencies?)

When the barriers go up, (brokers/exchanges must Know Your Client) - and the anonymity is gone, is it not going to immediately collapse in a heap?

Edit: these are all long posts, apologies everyone.

you overlooked the point. the fact anything is running on Ethereum is merely interesting, any many of debatable value and purpose. the fact that so many projects used Ethereum to raise large amounts capital has been a massive success and demonstration of real application in itself.

chickens · Sep 4, 2024

beorhthelm said:
you overlooked the point. the fact anything is running on Ethereum is merely interesting, any many of debatable value and purpose. the fact that so many projects used Ethereum to raise large amounts capital has been a massive success and demonstration of real application in itself.

I have to question (as Mr Phil states above) how many of these applications “needed” ETH, as opposed to ETH needing the apps as proof of concept.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t wish impoverishment on anyone, I just fear that unless this generation of apps/dapps produce some poster boy successes that couldn’t be replicated by existing platforms, there will be no following generation that go to the trouble of using ETH (or any other) blockchain.

If I create something that doesn’t use ETH and retails for (e.g.) £20, what is the advantage of using ETH? What do I gain?

If a project/product is wanted/needed then there are already endless options for raising capital, from private equity to bank loans to kickstarter projects.

What is ETHs Unique Selling Point?

Is it purely that laundered funds can be invested into ETH projects? What’s the advantage to funding something via ETH as opposed to signing up to a kickstarter?

Knocky's Nose · Sep 4, 2024

Just to add to the "why hasn't anything happened" - it's kind of a case where the car has been invented before the roads.

A slick tech company can create a product in a LOT less time than the governments, central banks and institutions can create frameworks, guidelines and above all - laws. You've also got banks kicking back against it as the status quo is perfect for them as it makes them a shed load of money. Oh, and the banks fund the politicians, and in exchange they do their bidding.

Saying DLT and Blockchain will come to nothing is like saying the internet would come to nothing back in the day, and many people did.

Email replaced Handwritten Letters, and Blockchain will replace SWIFT and the outdated way we transact. (This is just one use case from one company). Remember SWIFT was designed in the 1960's and launched in 1973. It has a 6% failure rate, is slow, and expensive.

Times are changing, laws are being passed (King Charles signed the MICA bill last June - Markets in Crypto Assets) which is now live. Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Australia and many other countries are agreeing on a framework upon which to transact - and once it's all in tune you'll see money moving across borders at the speed of light. Stablecoins will be a big thing, and then you'll get the retail use cases over the next 3-10 years.

All of this is free to look at on the various government and developer websites worldwide.

Like anything new, it's the 'Wild West' until it finds it's feet and laws and regulations are passed and enforced to clean the space up. This is being done, right now. After that you can say goodbye to 99% of these crappy memecoins and scam tokens. A lot of smug people won't be too smug when their "dancing frog with a hat on" token goes to zero.

This space isn't for everyone, especially the people who can't be arsed to put in hundreds or even thousands of hours of proper research. There are a handful of good content creators on 'X' and YouTube, but ironically you have to do the hundreds of hours of research first to tell which ones are dickheads and which ones genuinely know what they're on about.

My final observation is that we live in a society where if something isn't instant, people lose interest quickly. They want you to basically tell them which token to buy, guide them through buying it, watch it 10x in value in 3 days, then ask you help them sell it - and then they walk away telling people how clever they are. If you haven't got patience, and belief in what you hold - this game ain't for you....

For all the Diamond Hands out there in the proper utility coins, our time will come. People laughed at and ridiculed Google, Apple. Facebook, Microsoft, Tesla and plenty of others when they launched. They just couldn't see what was coming down the pipes.

chickens · Sep 4, 2024

Knocky's Nose said:
Just to add to the "why hasn't anything happened" - it's kind of a case where the car has been invented before the roads.

A slick tech company can create a product in a LOT less time than the governments, central banks and institutions can create frameworks, guidelines and above all - laws. You've also got banks kicking back against it as the status quo is perfect for them as it makes them a shed load of money. Oh, and the banks fund the politicians, and in exchange they do their bidding.

Saying DLT and Blockchain will come to nothing is like saying the internet would come to nothing back in the day, and many people did.

Email replaced Handwritten Letters, and Blockchain will replace SWIFT and the outdated way we transact. (This is just one use case from one company). Remember SWIFT was designed in the 1960's and launched in 1973. It has a 6% failure rate, is slow, and expensive.

Times are changing, laws are being passed (King Charles signed the MICA bill last June - Markets in Crypto Assets) which is now live. Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Australia and many other countries are agreeing on a framework upon which to transact - and once it's all in tune you'll see money moving across borders at the speed of light. Stablecoins will be a big thing, and then you'll get the retail use cases over the next 3-10 years.

All of this is free to look at on the various government and developer websites worldwide.

Like anything new, it's the 'Wild West' until it finds it's feet and laws and regulations are passed and enforced to clean the space up. This is being done, right now. After that you can say goodbye to 99% of these crappy memecoins and scam tokens. A lot of smug people won't be too smug when their "dancing frog with a hat on" token goes to zero.

This space isn't for everyone, especially the people who can't be arsed to put in hundreds or even thousands of hours of proper research. There are a handful of good content creators on 'X' and YouTube, but ironically you have to do the hundreds of hours of research first to tell which ones are dickheads and which ones genuinely know what they're on about.

My final observation is that we live in a society where if something isn't instant, people lose interest quickly. They want you to basically tell them which token to buy, guide them through buying it, watch it 10x in value in 3 days, then ask you help them sell it - and then they walk away telling people how clever they are. If you haven't got patience, and belief in what you hold - this game ain't for you....

For all the Diamond Hands out there in the proper utility coins, our time will come. People laughed at and ridiculed Google, Apple. Facebook, Microsoft, Tesla and plenty of others when they launched. They just couldn't see what was coming down the pipes.

I’m not sure people laughed at any of those companies. Most of all, each of those companies had products that were tangibly superior (in one form or another) to what had gone before.

Crypto has had well over a decade to convince us of its potential, and while I accept that cross-border transfers are possibly the ultimate use case for crypto, it requires political/legal buy-in from each and every country before it can be used globally. This could take 1-2 decades in itself. It will also inevitably involve KYC (Know Your Client) law, to prevent money laundering. At which point, the principal attraction of crypto over traditional finance disappears.

Even if/when it happens, do you genuinely believe that this will sustain rises in more than one or two “coins” at most?

Finally, at present, if I transfer money from one account to another, the transaction takes seconds. So why do I need crypto? The existing tech is quick enough, and private. I have selected my bank as a trusted counterparty, I need not submit my finances to public scrutiny.

Professor Plum · Sep 5, 2024

Deleted

Mr Phil · Sep 5, 2024

Knocky's Nose said:
People laughed at and ridiculed Google, Apple. Facebook, Microsoft, Tesla and plenty of others when they launched

Who exactly laughed at any of these companies, which had a clear selling point and place in the world?

Knocky's Nose · Sep 5, 2024

Mr Phil said:
Who exactly laughed at any of these companies, which had a clear selling point and place in the world?

Plenty of people ridiculed all of them! Anything new is met with derision, disbelief and suspicion. Go back to the newspapers, magazines and/or internet in the years they were launched.

DLT and Blockchain has a clear selling point, and also a place in the world. Just wait, and watch.

Professor Plum · Sep 5, 2024

Mr Phil said:
Who exactly laughed at any of these companies, which had a clear selling point and place in the world?

I didn’t laugh at Google but when they went public I remember asking my boss if they were worth a punt as I’d just had a £3k bonus I wanted to invest. (I think around 2004?). No, he said, “Google’s a free search engine, they’ve got no revenue stream. You’ll never get your money back.” I sometimes wonder what my £3k would be worth now but it would pain me too much to look it up.

I sometimes think of the days when Bitcoin was being sold at 27pence each. (And probably cheaper but this was the price that first lodged in my memory.) I used a forum (the old Motley Fool UK) where there was a lot of discussion about whether it was worth buying. Needless to say I didn’t do so. But amazing to think what even 100 Bitcoin bought for £27 would be worth now.

Knocky's Nose · Sep 5, 2024

XRP will be the same in my opinion. People will look back and hold their head in their hands wishing they'd bought it at 42p.

For those saying "but XRP never moves" it took Bitcoin 10 years to get to three grand a coin.

Anyway, that's me. I have other investments, but I really think XRP will allow me to retire early - and not in the too distant future, either. :thumbsup:

schmunk · Sep 6, 2024

Professor Plum said:
I didn’t laugh at Google but when they went public I remember asking my boss if they were worth a punt as I’d just had a £3k bonus I wanted to invest. (I think around 2004?). No, he said, “Google’s a free search engine, they’ve got no revenue stream. You’ll never get your money back.” I sometimes wonder what my £3k would be worth now but it would pain me too much to look it up.

Here's a recent article on this very subject, 20 years on from the IPO:

Google went public 20 years ago—what your $1000 investment would be worth today

Monday marked the 20-year anniversary of Google’s IPO. The stock has appreciated over 6,500% since then.

finance.yahoo.com

Professor Plum · Sep 6, 2024

Knocky's Nose said:
XRP will be the same in my opinion. People will look back and hold their head in their hands wishing they'd bought it at 42p.

For those saying "but XRP never moves" it took Bitcoin 10 years to get to three grand a coin.

Anyway, that's me. I have other investments, but I really think XRP will allow me to retire early - and not in the too distant future, either.

Sorry if you’ve already explained this but why are you pinning your hopes on XRP? I can’t search the thread as it’s only 3 characters long. If you offer even a vaguely convincing reason I might just have a small bet.

As for Google stock, gulp, that £3k would be around £200k now.. OTOH, knowing me I'd have cashed them in far too early and sold up years ago. Also, it’s totally pointless wasting time thinking coulda woulda shoulda.

Knocky's Nose · Sep 6, 2024

Professor Plum said:
...why are you pinning your hopes on XRP? If you offer even a vaguely convincing reason I might just have a small bet.

That could be construed as 'financial advice' by some - so I'd rather not.

I would encourage you to look up Ripple, their seats with the WEF, IMF, Central Banks, the Digital Pound Foundation, Digital Euro, the fact they're on the board for ISDA, their work with most of the World's Central Banks, their upcoming Stablecoin (RLUSD) which will probably usurp Tether USDT, and the 1700 NDA's they have signed with Banks and Institutions. The Banking licences they have around the world, the fact that most of their board have come from the Elite companies and financial institutions, and their Director Rosie Rios is the former treasurer of the United States (with her signature on the $100 bill). Their board is literally the Harlem Globetrotters of the corporate world. Would they all put their good names and spotless reputations to a rug-pull? D'ya think?

Ripple still have 45 Billion XRP in escrow and their own accounts, so I'd say it's in their interest for the token to do well. They are also laser-focused on the XRPL and are constantly adding new features to be used in the near future.

So, you could say it's all a scam and it's going nowhere... or maybe not.

CheeseRolls · Sep 6, 2024

chickens said:
So, can you point at one please?

A successful global scale application? We’re about fifteen years in, there have to be some real world success stories, with corresponding rise in the utility coin’s value?

Blockchain isn’t new anymore, what’s the delay?

If you look at blockchain specifically and bear in mind this is just ONE technology in the crypto toolset, there is a huge investment in private blockchain globally. Many of these private chains can supply multiple organisations within one ecosystem or supply chain, but as these grow out interoperability will become compelling. I am sure we will see one to one gateways deployed, but this eventually becomes a sticking plaster. Hence my point on interoperability.

If you want a more pure play crypto offering, my portfolio would be decimated right now without Kaspa. Kaspa utilises DAG rather than blockchain see https://docs.getdbt.com/terms/dag. It is many times faster and transaction costs are a fraction of Bitcoin or Ethereum. There is some smart contract capability (KRC20), but native smart contracts are on the roadmap for 2027. This may well be too long for some people to wait.

RandyWanger · Sep 6, 2024

I'm with @Knocky's Nose on this one and I did buy XRP under 0.45

beorhthelm · Sep 6, 2024

Knocky's Nose said:
That could be construed as 'financial advice' by some - so I'd rather not.

I would encourage you to look up Ripple, their seats with the WEF, IMF, Central Banks, the Digital Pound Foundation, Digital Euro, the fact they're on the board for ISDA, their work with most of the World's Central Banks, their upcoming Stablecoin (RLUSD) which will probably usurp Tether USDT, and the 1700 NDA's they have signed with Banks and Institutions. The Banking licences they have around the world, the fact that most of their board have come from the Elite companies and financial institutions, and their Director Rosie Rios is the former treasurer of the United States (with her signature on the $100 bill). Their board is literally the Harlem Globetrotters of the corporate world. Would they all put their good names and spotless reputations to a rug-pull? D'ya think?

Ripple still have 45 Billion XRP in escrow and their own accounts, so I'd say it's in their interest for the token to do well. They are also laser-focused on the XRPL and are constantly adding new features to be used in the near future.

So, you could say it's all a scam and it's going nowhere... or maybe not.

XRP army always good for sentiment. if they give up we're truely hosed. :lolol:

Tom Hark Preston Park · Sep 6, 2024

beorhthelm said:
XRP army always good for sentiment. if they give up we're truely hosed.

Gawd bless their little diamond hands and laser eyes :lolol:

Muzzman · Sep 6, 2024

I don't understand any of this, so probably best to stay clear, good luck to those that do understand it though.

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[Finance] The cryptocurrency (Bitcoin etc) thread

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