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[Finance] The cryptocurrency (Bitcoin etc) thread



beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,015
Trump's VP choice Vance is pro-crypto. tide will be turning soon, interest rates coming down, ETH then probably SOL ETFs, end of hostile SEC.

you are not long enough.
 










chickens

chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
NSC Patron
Oct 12, 2022
2,690
At present I have to say that a control amount I invested in my ISA (into 3 Vanguard tracker funds and Fundsmith Sustainable) is up 9%, while my crypto bet is down 25%

I await the glorious upturn like a Scientologist waits to be beamed up to the mothership.
 




R

raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,355
Wiltshire
chickens said:
At present I have to say that a control amount I invested in my ISA (into 3 Vanguard tracker funds and Fundsmith Sustainable) is up 9%, while my crypto bet is down 25%

I await the glorious upturn like a Scientologist waits to be beamed up to the mothership.
Click to expand...
Well done @chickens
I am in your boat: most investments in tracker and active funds, with less than 5% in crypto...and that's just so I can keep engaging with my stepson who has too much in crypto (IMO)
 


chickens

chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
NSC Patron
Oct 12, 2022
2,690
raymondo said:
Well done @chickens
I am in your boat: most investments in tracker and active funds, with less than 5% in crypto...and that's just so I can keep engaging with my stepson who has too much in crypto (IMO)
Click to expand...

I appreciate the timeframe I’ve had skin in the game for is short, but I do worry that those who have gone “all in” are at risk of learning lessons about the fickleness of human nature.

Already all the conmen have stopped advertising that their latest wheeze uses blockchain technology, and have moved on to claiming that their creations “are powered by AI.”

There’s no pressure to unwind for these projects, they can just float about in a zombie status, but it’s telling to me that as the stock market slides, the crypto markets are also dropping, whereas the bulls always claimed that the stock markets loss would be crypto’s gain.

I hope your stepson is ok.
 


CheeseRolls

CheeseRolls

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 27, 2009
6,230
Shoreham Beach
There is little to no optimism out there right now and what little money there is seems to be still chasing the meme dream and waiting on some obscure hint from Musk that will send their investment to nirvana.

I am still in profit, but not by much given the time I have been in the market and inflation.

Looking through the top 25 coins by market cap, the list is absolutely packed with value-less junk, which at leats gives me some optimism that when we do get some momentum, it shouldn't be difficult for more credible stuff to come thorugh.
 




chickens

chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
NSC Patron
Oct 12, 2022
2,690
CheeseRolls said:
Looking through the top 25 coins by market cap, the list is absolutely packed with value-less junk, which at leats gives me some optimism that when we do get some momentum, it shouldn't be difficult for more credible stuff to come thorugh.
Click to expand...

And do you still hold genuine belief that this will happen?

To my mind, the world has moved on.

While I don’t doubt that there are real world use cases for block chain or hashgraph technology, I don’t see a compelling argument for anyone basing any proprietary technology on a publicly traded utility coin. They can simply create their own hashgraph/blockchain based tech that is tailored for their own purposes and that they control. There are very few altruists in finance.

I think there’s people who have speculated heavily on this, but with no clear picture of what constitutes a successful outcome. How many years has it been now? Where are the successful and compelling projects using this technology, with a corresponding increase in the utility coin’s value?

If we’re still waiting this many years after the initial excitement, with the bulls claiming “any year now.” - I have very strong doubts.

My personal opinion is that the day the true believers are waiting for, probably isn’t going to come.
 


R

raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,355
Wiltshire
chickens said:
I appreciate the timeframe I’ve had skin in the game for is short, but I do worry that those who have gone “all in” are at risk of learning lessons about the fickleness of human nature.

Already all the conmen have stopped advertising that their latest wheeze uses blockchain technology, and have moved on to claiming that their creations “are powered by AI.”

There’s no pressure to unwind for these projects, they can just float about in a zombie status, but it’s telling to me that as the stock market slides, the crypto markets are also dropping, whereas the bulls always claimed that the stock markets loss would be crypto’s gain.

I hope your stepson is ok.
Click to expand...
Yes, he's ok thanks !. My two day investment training when he turned 16 (good birthday present, eh😂) did instill some caution for a while (he's 26 now).
But two months back he sold much of his ISA funds, and added to his crypto, based on the 'investment gurus' he follows on tictoc and YouTube. I think his balance is quite wrong now.
We're not talking huge numbers (maybe 12k), but it's still an amount of savings.
I'm aware that some posters here will believe he's made a smart move...only time will tell.
 


RandyWanger

RandyWanger

Je suis rôti de boeuf
Mar 14, 2013
6,712
Done a Frexit, now in London
I hope he's made a smart move! Retail interest isn't there but institutions are buying in large quantities which suggest it will move in the right direction soon. HODL, ride the volititlity and be rewarded later on.

Anyway, BTC, XRP, HBAR, LINK, AVAX and ADA I am holding in various quantities still and I've just started buying ICP and have some locked up for 8 years staking.

I do have stocks and shares, bonds and an ISA that me and the wife pay into, but I enjoy the ride of crypto.

Also, who was it that suggested the best blockchain thematic on swissborg? It's terrible, almost 50% down in the 5 months I've had money in it :moo:
 




chickens

chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
NSC Patron
Oct 12, 2022
2,690
raymondo said:
Yes, he's ok thanks !. My two day investment training when he turned 16 (good birthday present, eh😂) did instill some caution for a while (he's 26 now).
But two months back he sold much of his ISA funds, and added to his crypto, based on the 'investment gurus' he follows on tictoc and YouTube. I think his balance is quite wrong now.
We're not talking huge numbers (maybe 12k), but it's still an amount of savings.
I'm aware that some posters here will believe he's made a smart move...only time will tell.
Click to expand...

I think a great birthday present, and I hope his market moves work out for him, but I feel my scepticism possibly leaks through into my posts on this subject!
 


deletebeepbeepbeep

deletebeepbeepbeep

Well-known member
May 12, 2009
21,797
chickens said:
And do you still hold genuine belief that this will happen?

To my mind, the world has moved on.

While I don’t doubt that there are real world use cases for block chain or hashgraph technology, I don’t see a compelling argument for anyone basing any proprietary technology on a publicly traded utility coin. They can simply create their own hashgraph/blockchain based tech that is tailored for their own purposes and that they control. There are very few altruists in finance.

I think there’s people who have speculated heavily on this, but with no clear picture of what constitutes a successful outcome. How many years has it been now? Where are the successful and compelling projects using this technology, with a corresponding increase in the utility coin’s value?

If we’re still waiting this many years after the initial excitement, with the bulls claiming “any year now.” - I have very strong doubts.

My personal opinion is that the day the true believers are waiting for, probably isn’t going to come.
Click to expand...

Like you say at least with AI there has been some practical value to it in the short term even if we can debate whether that is beneficial to society or not.

Compare that to crypto, blockchain, etc - it's been around for years, plenty of whitepapers and roadmaps and other businessy/VC bait things have been published, by a number of different entities, and what has come of any of it? Nothing. Because intrinstically all anyone (*99.9%) cares about in the crypto space is making money, getting in early on a new coin or some shit, so that they can drop the bag on the idiots who fall for the hype.

Nothing from the crypto gold rush of 2021 has actually culminated in any new or improved way of doing things. For all the proposed tokenisation and NFT'ing of mortgages and other stuff, to "make it easier", etc., nothing has sustained.

The people invested in this are grifters who only care about the money. The tech, the decentralisation (even as a mythical real thing) is just stuff they pretend to buy into to trick others into getting involved.
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,015
raymondo said:
Yes, he's ok thanks !. My two day investment training when he turned 16 (good birthday present, eh😂) did instill some caution for a while (he's 26 now).
But two months back he sold much of his ISA funds, and added to his crypto, based on the 'investment gurus' he follows on tictoc and YouTube. I think his balance is quite wrong now.
We're not talking huge numbers (maybe 12k), but it's still an amount of savings.
I'm aware that some posters here will believe he's made a smart move...only time will tell.
Click to expand...
as someone irresponsibly long, let me pass on key advice: dont follow the tik tok and youtubers for crypto. they are invariably chancers who got lucky one cycle, made contacts to get tokens to shill. they never say when to sell, which is the key to making profits. my largest loses are from such people, round tripping thousands, while simply sitting on ETH and SOL has made many multiples. we have 6-9 mth window to make an awful lot of profit, but know to get out when it looks peaky.
 




Weststander

Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,284
Withdean area
RandyWanger said:
I hope he's made a smart move! Retail interest isn't there but institutions are buying in large quantities which suggest it will move in the right direction soon. HODL, ride the volititlity and be rewarded later on.

Anyway, BTC, XRP, HBAR, LINK, AVAX and ADA I am holding in various quantities still and I've just started buying ICP and have some locked up for 8 years staking.

I do have stocks and shares, bonds and an ISA that me and the wife pay into, but I enjoy the ride of crypto.

Also, who was it that suggested the best blockchain thematic on swissborg? It's terrible, almost 50% down in the 5 months I've had money in it :moo:
Click to expand...

Haven’t the institutions bought so that they hold some (but relatively very small to their total investments/fungibles) interest, should it prove a long term winner?
 


CheeseRolls

CheeseRolls

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 27, 2009
6,230
Shoreham Beach
chickens said:
And do you still hold genuine belief that this will happen?
Click to expand...

Yes - Interoperability, global scale applications and huge swathes of the world without a stable currency and at the whim of the US dollar.
chickens said:
To my mind, the world has moved on.
Click to expand...

You should probably sell.
chickens said:
While I don’t doubt that there are real world use cases for block chain or hashgraph technology, I don’t see a compelling argument for anyone basing any proprietary technology on a publicly traded utility coin. They can simply create their own hashgraph/blockchain based tech that is tailored for their own purposes and that they control. There are very few altruists in finance.

I think there’s people who have speculated heavily on this, but with no clear picture of what constitutes a successful outcome. How many years has it been now? Where are the successful and compelling projects using this technology, with a corresponding increase in the utility coin’s value?

If we’re still waiting this many years after the initial excitement, with the bulls claiming “any year now.” - I have very strong doubts.

My personal opinion is that the day the true believers are waiting for, probably isn’t going to come.
Click to expand...
I don't buy into the true believer argument either.
 


chickens

chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
NSC Patron
Oct 12, 2022
2,690
CheeseRolls said:
Yes - Interoperability, global scale applications and huge swathes of the world without a stable currency and at the whim of the US dollar.
Click to expand...

So, can you point at one please?

A successful global scale application? We’re about fifteen years in, there have to be some real world success stories, with corresponding rise in the utility coin’s value?

Blockchain isn’t new anymore, what’s the delay?
 


chickens

chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
NSC Patron
Oct 12, 2022
2,690
RandyWanger said:
I hope he's made a smart move! Retail interest isn't there but institutions are buying in large quantities which suggest it will move in the right direction soon. HODL, ride the volititlity and be rewarded later on.
Click to expand...

A genuine question, if institutions are buying in large quantities, and all transactions (regardless of retail or institutional) are recorded on the blockchain, why is the price dropping?

For me, significant institutional interest would cause a corresponding rise in retail interest, as individuals hopped on the gravy train and waited for the token in question to “go to the moon” as I believe the saying goes.
 




beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,015
chickens said:
So, can you point at one please?

A successful global scale application? We’re about fifteen years in, there have to be some real world success stories, with corresponding rise in the utility coin’s value?

Blockchain isn’t new anymore, what’s the delay?
Click to expand...
Ethereum. it's been used to raise hundreds of billions in funding, with secure distribution of tokens to investors.. *cough* i mean holders, demonstrating core function of smart contracts.

btw i'm deeply cycnical about the long term prospects for most utility tokens, the contradiction of higher value and lower cost will be realised eventually, and there are simply far too many. along the way there is huge upsides though and we're not going to see them go away because its unregulated money raising market.
 
Last edited:


Tom Hark Preston Park

Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
72,327
chickens said:
A genuine question, if institutions are buying in large quantities, and all transactions (regardless of retail or institutional) are recorded on the blockchain, why is the price dropping?

For me, significant institutional interest would cause a corresponding rise in retail interest, as individuals hopped on the gravy train and waited for the token in question to “go to the moon” as I believe the saying goes.
Click to expand...
t7k7b7wd0hmd1.jpeg
 


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