why is labour crashing in the polls this week

[beorhthelm]

+ paying for 'national service'
+ increasing VAT making the poorest worse off

are Labour already resorting to making claims of what might happen and inventing others policy as if they are fact? 13 years of power, yet still act as if in opposition. this if no other reason is why we need a change of government.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

are Labour already resorting to making claims of what might happen and inventing others policy as if they are fact? 13 years of power, yet still act as if in opposition. this if no other reason is why we need a change of government.

I'll think you'll find that's Vince Cable mainly, and the FT.

 

[Stoo82]

+ increasing VAT making the poorest worse off

How does this work?

Do poor people pay more VAT than rich people?

There are more poor than rich (thanks to Labour) so in theroy poor people pay more, but, if one Rich person was to buy a 32" TV and a poor person was to to the same 32" TV would the poor person pay more?

No is the answer.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

If VAT is seen as the main way of achieving additional tax income, it hits low-income individuals and families hardest, because it means that proportionally MORE of their income goes to the government than is the case with people who have enough income to enable them to stash lots of it away as savings.

At least National Insurance hits earners - everybody who is earning will pay a bit more, in proportion to their ability to pay. High earners will pay more. Which is fair.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

At least National Insurance hits earners - everybody who is earning will pay a bit more, in proportion to their ability to pay. High earners will pay more. Which is fair.

But NI increases hit low earners too, reducing their income.

Low earners have a choice of whether to buy goods that will be affected by Vat increases (as in the previous example, a TV)

Basic items like (most) food doesn't have VAT on it so it may mean that higher earners still pay more as they are more likely to buy luxury goods anyway, but the shopper gets the choice rather than a blanket charge to everyone.

Labour certainly haven't been the champion for low wage earners, their policy of tax and spend and then tax some more has left a lot of low earners struggling to make ends meet, why should they be forced to lose even more of their income due to greedy Politicians eager to spend even more tax money on public services / sector that they may not want.

 

[redneb]

Brown is like a ref thats lost control of a game.

 

[beorhthelm]

If VAT is seen as the main way of achieving additional tax income, it hits low-income individuals and families hardest, because it means that proportionally MORE of their income goes to the government than is the case with people who have enough income to enable them to stash lots of it away as savings,

thats the mantra. however, the wealthy family that pays out for a £1k new TV pays twice as much VAT as the average family that pays £500 for theirs, who pay twice as much as the low income that pay £250. i think if the proportion of all spending by higher income was properly compared to the spending of a lower income houshold, the latter would be spending less on luxuries and so less on VAT proportionally. Really, VAT is the fairest of all the taxes.

as for NI, im surprised to learn that NI isnt paid above a certain level. it seems very odd that this Labour govenment have not addressed this, instead increaseing everyones NI, and drawing a big focus onto a 50% rate for over 150k which brings in very little relative to the total tax revenue.

I'll think you'll find that's Vince Cable mainly, and the FT.

no, seems for a quick search it Mandleson that invented the VAT rise.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

People are talking as if VAT is only paid on luxury goods, like wide screen TVs.

 

[drew]

The gap in the polls is more likely to be due to the bribes being offered by Cameron. He has spent months banging on about we need to start reducing the debt immediately (as opposed to Labour delaying for a further year) yet once the election is announced, they are concentrating on tax cuts and reducing the amount we can pay back. He's stopping the NI increase, paying more to married couples and I suspect this will soon pave the way for their pre-recession flagship policy of increasing the IHT threshold.

Cameron should've have been a cert for the election but he seems to be panicking. The polls will fluctuate but I wouldn't take any notice of them.

 

[BLOCK F]

Hopefully,because voters are at last waking up to the fact that Brown's band of desperados need to be kicked out of office.
The thought of another 5 years of this shower running/ruining? the country is just too dreadful to contemplate.

 

[NMH]

because polls are rubbish and people answer in responce to loaded questions or the news of that weekend.

A spike in interest from the previously glowering shadow-voters and disenchanted since the election date was announced. A bandwagon MUST be jumped upon - and from the less wary who want to believe that Clamouron has a clue and isn't just making completely false offers from the gallery, that he has no intention of delivering or are surreptitious (i.e "I will GIVE to x y and z, but not mention that the rest of the alphabet are gonna pay in spades).

If there's a hung vote the Liberals have already hinted that they'd lean towards Labour, they can't stomach the Tory drivel either.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

If there's a hung vote the Liberals have already hinted that they'd lean towards Labour, they can't stomach the Tory drivel either.

That may turn out to be very significant during the campaign. It could easily turn into a new bandwagon, with EVERY political party (including Greens, the nationalists and BNP/UKIP) agreeing with and focusing on the BIG consensus - THE TORIES ARE TALKING DRIVEL.

 

[Marshy]

Its time for a change, might as well give the tories a go.

Labours whole campaign is built on striking fear into the electorate of putting the tories in so they dont have to talk about how they f***ed it up

 

[fataddick]

I'm not sure people realise just how low VAT is (in comparative terms) in the UK. Of 39 European countries, our rate is the 7th lowest, which is why it would seem (to politicians at least) an obvious thing to raise:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_of_Europe

 

[beorhthelm]

That may turn out to be very significant during the campaign. It could easily turn into a new bandwagon, with EVERY political party (including Greens, the nationalists and BNP/UKIP) agreeing with and focusing on the BIG consensus - THE TORIES ARE TALKING DRIVEL.

which would seem odd wouldnt it? why not focus on their own policies? personally im not sure ive seen this bandwagon from the fringe parties, they seem to be generally attacking both Labour/Tory as not offering anything differnt and real change is going to come from Green/UKIP etc. which i think has a good degree of truth.

Labour and Liberals attacking the Tories suggests to me they are more concerned with damage limitation/minimising a tory majority, and have nothing to offer themselves. in the case of the Liberals is a particular shame to see, i dont agree with alot of their policies but at least they do usually come up with somthing different. I think this might start to come though in the polls if all the Labour and Liberals have to say is "dont vote tory" people will ask "why not" and vote that way. it reinforces the vote for change slogan.

 

[NMH]

which would seem odd wouldnt it? why not focus on their own policies? personally im not sure ive seen this bandwagon from the fringe parties, they seem to be generally attacking both Labour/Tory as not offering anything differnt and real change is going to come from Green/UKIP etc. which i think has a good degree of truth.

Labour and Liberals attacking the Tories suggests to me they are more concerned with damage limitation/minimising a tory majority, and have nothing to offer themselves. in the case of the Liberals is a particular shame to see, i dont agree with alot of their policies but at least they do usually come up with somthing different. I think this might start to come though in the polls if all the Labour and Liberals have to say is "dont vote tory" people will ask "why not" and vote that way. it reinforces the vote for change slogan.

To my ears these other parties - although not managing to talk drivel so much - also fail to come up with ideas and solutions better than the ones that Labour have been working with. Listening to the interviews, they do okay for a minute or two before sounding pretty-much stumped or inept.
Cameron talks it up big-style, but his party are pretty-much bereft of ideas beyond the self-serving ones which will suit a minority (in other words, probably not you or I!). Therefore they have to keep their agendas concealed or else they'd NEVER get a majority vote.
Thus, some er....sorts of people will vote for them, citing 'need for change' and 'anything's better than Brown'. Then if they do get in they'll undoubtedly make most of their voters regret and rue the day.
The winners will be the company that produces the badges and stickers saying "DON'T BLAME ME - I DIDN'T VOTE FOR THEM".

I suspect many people would then be praying for us to get bailed out by the EEC, and dump the pound asap so the Germans can look after us.

 

[seagull_special]

The Tories have it in their grasp to win the election but in the back of their minds they know they will be inheriting a bucket of shit much like Brown did when Blair went. there is no glory to be won, the country will be taking a very bitter medicine for the next few years and whoever wins will probably crash in the polls within months of being elected. I find Cameron and Osborne nauseating, they should have been miles ahead in the polls with Labour in freefall but lack likeability. The liberals must be weeping, they should have wiped the floor with the 2 main parties but as always remain unelectable and have left the Tories as the only alternative.

Brown looks exhausted and I bet he can't wait to be free of the stress of leading the country.

Tories be careful what you wish for

 

[Goring Gull]

I still think Labour have it in the bag

 

[beorhthelm]

I still think Labour have it in the bag

i dont think even Labour HQ believe that.

back to previous points on how the parties are sounding, i think the Tories will romp home *if* they announce a series of concreate policies. even if not all people like them all they will, and some proper policy position will reenergise the electorate. they will have to stop trying to pander to the be everything to everyone mentality, thats only going to lead to apathy and a hung parliament as only the core votes turn out. thats why i also think Liberals will do well if they stick to form of promising a dozen solid ideas that are a bit fanciful but nice, they will pickup floaters and disgruntled Labour votes.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

I still think Labour have it in the bag

Same.

Labour voters will turn out in force to elect the first non Tony B.Liar PM since the illegal and immoral invasion of Iraq.

Tory voters won't care strongly enough to turn out in anything like the numbers required for a Tory majority.

Lib-Dem voters will piss their votes up the wall, same as they always do.