What do you think the next government will be?

[Tricky Dicky]

Personally I think that there is bugger all difference policy-wise between Conservatives and the Lib Dems - the stand out differences being on Trident, electoral reform, and road-pricing (were you aware that the Lib Dems want to charge you extra to use all motorways and trunk roads?). Everything else seems much of a muchness really (you can argue about tax/tax credits/etc all day, but I guarantee that none of the major parties will end up making anyone richer - because they can't afford to).

I think we'll end up with a Conservative/Lib Dem coallition, and I don't think that'd be a bad thing at all.

Plus, the LD would like to join the Euro is poss - I know they have shelved it for now, but not in principle.

Plus, not having jail sentences of less than 6 months - the prisons may be overcrowed but making generalisatinos like that is dangerous.

Although (and I think it was the LibDems) some of their plans to ease up on civil liberties sounded ok, e.g. Not having 1M innocent people on the crime DNA database.

 

[Mr Everyone]

Plus, and this is VERY different to the baddies (CONS), their plans for Tax reform..

 

[Simster]

Plus, not having jail sentences of less than 6 months - the prisons may be overcrowed but making generalisatinos like that is dangerous.

I didn't know that was a policy of the LibDems but now I do I'm even more likely to vote for them.

I know people who have been inside for a couple of weeks and reported back that it's like a holiday camp. Let's face it, short term loss of liberty isn't much of a punishment. I'd rather someone was given a stiff fine or made to work in the community if the only alternative was 3-6 months inside. That amount of time is barely worth doing.

 

[DerbyGull]

You don't vote for a party on the basis of how positive/negative they appear on TV/radio during an election campaign, do you?

This is the future. I know people who've never voted and now choose clegg, cameron and tory are just dirty words and people want change. I would not rule out lib dems winning the election. If previously only 30% voted and that rises to 40% and alot of them are first time voters voting lib dems and tactical labour supporters then lib dem could nick it.

 

[captainmorganrum]

Which joker voted for "Labour-Conservative coalition"

 

[Notters]

This is the future. I know people who've never voted and now choose clegg, cameron and tory are just dirty words and people want change. I would not rule out lib dems winning the election. If previously only 30% voted and that rises to 40% and alot of them are first time voters voting lib dems and tactical labour supporters then lib dem could nick it.

God that would be amazing!

If the tories were to win, and refuse to implement electoral reform, I think things will get very nasty on the streets...

 

[Mr Everyone]

This is the future. I know people who've never voted and now choose clegg, cameron and tory are just dirty words and people want change. I would not rule out lib dems winning the election. If previously only 30% voted and that rises to 40% and alot of them are first time voters voting lib dems and tactical labour supporters then lib dem could nick it.

Very unlikely. In fact impossible.

 

[glasfryn]

OMG so far I'm the only one who thinks Labour will have a small majority yes OK I may have it wrong but does everyone believe all the media hype about the other two main parties
Rather Labour than the other two ......but would prefer a Green government and have decided to vote green here in Wales although its a bit of a wasted vote its how I feel

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Which joker voted for "Labour-Conservative coalition"

not me. But they do seem closer to each other than to to libdems on many issues, and they have joined forces to attack the libdems incessantly for the part 3 weeks.

A lab-con coalition to keep the status quo and keep the libdems out? Stranger things have happened!

 

[beorhthelm]

OMG so far I'm the only one who thinks Labour will have a small majority

come now, even Labour dont think they will win a majority.

im not convinced/dont understand why there will be a "uniform swing". we know the polls are historically poor and misjudge the Tory vote (as already explained), so the only logicial expectation will be a large Conservative minority or shading into the majority.

now, intersting thought on electoral reform, if wanted Cameron could review the current FPTP and go for some middle ground alternative. FPTP benefits Labour most, something else would probably weaken their hold in northern urban areas and Scotland.

 

[DerbyGull]

I know people who have been inside for a couple of weeks and reported back that it's like a holiday camp.

Locked in their cells for up to 22 hours a day, with no regular access to showers and with just 30 minutes exercise; Have to see their cell mate use the toilet, which may not be separated by a screen, in the corner of a cramped cell; Overcrowding means that over 12,000 prisoners are being held two to a cell designed for one.

If you think it's a holiday camp, go visit one. Or try locking your self in a room for a day without ever leaving, going to the bathroom, getting a shower, going out when you feel like, no girlfriend etc etc

let's face it, short term loss of liberty isn't much of a punishment.

Erm yes it is! In a short space of time you can lose your job, house, car, wife etc etc. People being held on remand (Potentially INNOCENT) being the biggest falacy: Only half of all remanded prisoners go on to receive a prison sentence; Overall more than a third of all suicides in prison are committed by people awaiting trial; One in five (19%) of men and 18% of women held on remand before trial in 2005 were acquitted. The vast majority received no compensation for this period of incarceration.

Why imprison over 50,000 people a year who will be back in court in less than two months at which point one in five will be acquitted and over half will receive a community penalty?

I'd rather someone was given a stiff fine or made to work in the community if the only alternative was 3-6 months inside. That amount of time is barely worth doing.

Great point! i also feel the same. There are alternatives to prison like restorative justice, but they aren't used regularly and only for certain crimes.


This isn't just aimed at you simster it's more a broad question to anyone.

 

[Curious Orange]

Although (and I think it was the LibDems) some of their plans to ease up on civil liberties sounded ok, e.g. Not having 1M innocent people on the crime DNA database.

This is actually a key issue for me, and from what I've seen the Lib Dems and the Conservatives are much alike on this issue. The biggest disappointment of the Labour government (aside from spending more money than the country actually has) has been the creeping introduction of the surveillance led police state.

 

[Pavilionaire]

It's very hard to work out what will happen, but I can see the following happening:

1. The electorate bottle it with the Lib Dems and stick to what they know. Consequently, the Tories / Ulster Unionists are just short of an overall majority but scenting blood.
2. Brown, because he has no mandate to continue and because of pressure from within his own party, resigns.
3. David Milliband takes over and promises electoral reform to the Lib Dems in return for their support for a minority Labour government, which he gets.
4. Milliband assembles a new cabinet. Cameron's position, having failed to get a majority, is weakened, while Milliband's grows stronger.

 

[DerbyGull]

It's very hard to work out what will happen, but I can see the following happening:

1. The electorate bottle it with the Lib Dems and stick to what they know. Consequently, the Tories / Ulster Unionists are just short of an overall majority but scenting blood.
2. Brown, because he has no mandate to continue and because of pressure from within his own party, resigns.
3. David Milliband takes over and promises electoral reform to the Lib Dems in return for their support for a minority Labour government, which he gets.
4. Milliband assembles a new cabinet. Cameron's position, having failed to get a majority, is weakened, while Milliband's grows stronger.

Go Milliband!!

 

[Simster]

Locked in their cells for up to 22 hours a day, with no regular access to showers and with just 30 minutes exercise; Have to see their cell mate use the toilet, which may not be separated by a screen, in the corner of a cramped cell; Overcrowding means that over 12,000 prisoners are being held two to a cell designed for one.

If you think it's a holiday camp, go visit one.

Erm yes it is! In a short space of time you can lose your job, house, car, wife etc etc.

I'm simply quoting an acquaintance of mine from the 90s who spent two weeks inside. Drink driving or something I believe.

He told me it was like a holiday camp. They had plenty of time outside their cells, watching telly, playing table tennis etc apparently. Low risk offenders aren't locked in their cells for 22 hours a day, that's for sure.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

It's very hard to work out what will happen, but I can see the following happening:

1. The electorate bottle it with the Lib Dems and stick to what they know. Consequently, the Tories / Ulster Unionists are just short of an overall majority but scenting blood.
2. Brown, because he has no mandate to continue and because of pressure from within his own party, resigns.
3. David Milliband takes over and promises electoral reform to the Lib Dems in return for their support for a minority Labour government, which he gets.
4. Milliband assembles a new cabinet. Cameron's position, having failed to get a majority, is weakened, while Milliband's grows stronger.

Maybe. But for Milliband to take over would probably require a fairly lengthy leadership contest, during which time media pressure would push for stability and make a Conservative minority government inevitable.

However, Harriet Harman, as Labour deputy leader, could probably take over almost instantly. She is also likely to be well-supported by the remainder of the Labour MP's - who are likely to be more old-school as MP's for northern cities, assuming many New Labour types from southern seats will lose. I also think the public might accept another female prime minister quite well in this situation.

So I would replace Milliband in your analysis with Harman.

 

[beorhthelm]

as i understand it, the Labour party leader can only be selected at the annual confernce, unless Brown resigns, in which case the NEC appoints an interim leader untill then.

makes it all a bit tricky for Labour, its either Harman as Deputy or a highly contentious appointment.

 

[DerbyGull]

I'm simply quoting an acquaintance of mine from the 90s who spent two weeks inside. Drink driving or something I believe.

He told me it was like a holiday camp. They had plenty of time outside their cells, watching telly, playing table tennis etc apparently. Low risk offenders aren't locked in their cells for 22 hours a day, that's for sure.

There are some quite big contrasts between prison that is true. Your freind was probably in a category D prison where many are allowed to come and go, have jobs etc. But they are usually for the low risk (ie not threat to public) offenders like fraudsters.

Anyhow, like you said there is no point in short term prison sentences for most crimes, give them a community order/fine/opportunity to give something back instead. Because prison is a HUGE black hole on our finances. £120,000 per year to house a young offender in a YOI, the same as it costs to send Cameron and his pals to Eton

 

[beorhthelm]

£120,000 per year to house a young offender in a YOI, the same as it costs to send Cameron and his pals to Eton

is the better solution to send them to Eton then?

 

[wellquickwoody]

So I would replace Milliband in your analysis with Harman.

God help us!

Would bring forward my emigration plans by about 5 years.