Was it a vote against Labour or against GB?

[drew]

It seems clear there has been a protest vote but is it against GB or the Labour party. If the latter, then not much hope should there be a re-run later in the year. However, if, as I suspect, it is against GB, then Clegg may do us all a bigger favour by agreeing to join with Labour on the condition that Brown goes, something some pundits have already alluded to that GB has hinted he might do this.

 

[London Calling]

i REckon in England, especially in the home counties, people liked what Blair offered (not necessarily the Labour Party), they now have improved schools, NHS, services, Sue Start.

Now after Iraq, and 2 years of criticism of Brown, enogh people and we only talking about 6% of the electorate have said we want some Dave, he look smooth and the papers love him.

But in SCotland, Wales, the inner cities, and the north. The Conservatives have not really made many in roads.

A new labour leader can only invigorate that Party and it doesn't take a big percentage for LABOUR TO PICK UP 30-50 seats.

 

[Don Quixote]

They do not like Brown, it is clear. If there had been another leader it probably would have been a Labour victory.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

Something that hasn't been mentioned yet is the ever changing constuancy boundries and despite having a majority equal to one of Tony Blairs election wins, the way the voting areas have been structured has counted against the Tories.

They said in their coverage earlier that the current constituancy boundries favour the Labour party and maybe that is why the Conservatives failed to get a majority?

Don't all political parties when in power look to move these boundries to ensure that they are more likely to keep power in the next election?

 

[Deleted User X18H]

2 Masshoove gains for Tories in last few minutes.

 

[perseus]

Against Gordon Brown

 

[The Large One]

Something that hasn't been mentioned yet is the ever changing constuancy boundries and despite having a majority equal to one of Tony Blairs election wins, the way the voting areas have been structured has counted against the Tories.

They said in their coverage earlier that the current constituancy boundries favour the Labour party and maybe that is why the Conservatives failed to get a majority?

Don't all political parties when in power look to move these boundries to ensure that they are more likely to keep power in the next election?

Does the political party have that much influence over the Electoral Commission?

 

[Westdene Seagull]

To answer the original question - from me it was neither. It was a vote in support of Conservative policies - I rather use my vote positively than negatively.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

Does the political party have that much influence over the Electoral Commission?

Don't know - but why are boundries always changing rather than having traditional constituancies so people know what area they will always in? and why do they tend to suit the party in power more?

Have there been areas of the country where there has been a mass exodus justifying a cut in numbers of MP's for that area or vice versa? Is all the tweaking really necessary given that the constituancies are not uniform in size or population they cover and never have been.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

They do not like Brown, it is clear. If there had been another leader it probably would have been a Labour victory.

That's how I read it. CMD didn't convince many people who wouldn't have voted for them anyway. If they had put, say, Milliband Senior in charge, they would have won with a small majority.

 

[Joe Gatting's Dad]

The average conservative constituency is about 78,000 to 68,000 for labour - all the northern cities - which mean the conservatives have to obtain more votes to achieve the same result - hence labour are only 50 seats behind.

 

[The Large One]

That's how I read it. CMD didn't convince many people who wouldn't have voted for them anyway. If they had put, say, Milliband Senior in charge, they would have won with a small majority.

You see, this is the next problem for not only Labour, but Cameron as well.

If Cameron's coalition is a bit flimsy, and another election gets called, say, next year, what would the result be if Brown resigned as Labour leader, and someone considered maybe slightly more palatable to the electorate - say, David Milliband - was the leader?

 

[User removed 4]

If Cameron's coalition is a bit flimsy, and another election gets called, say, next year, what would the result be if Brown resigned as Labour leader, and someone considered maybe slightly more palatable to the electorate - say, David Milliband - was the leader?

If this ,maybe that . If you really, really gave it a go , there's a chance you could sound a tiny little bit more hopeful , only a small chance mind

 

[The Large One]

If this ,maybe that . If you really, really gave it a go , there's a chance you could sound a tiny little bit more hopeful , only a small chance mind

You think it definitely WON'T happen?

 

[Don Quixote]

If this ,maybe that . If you really, really gave it a go , there's a chance you could sound a tiny little bit more hopeful , only a small chance mind

What do you mean? It is almost certain Cameron has failed here and there must be another election next year. Milliband might win he might not, it might not even be him but you can be certain there will be another election.

 

[User removed 4]

You think it definitely WON'T happen?

I havent really given it a thought , but its virtually jumping out of the screen and screaming out that that is what you're hoping and praying for. My feeling is that we'll bumble along for a while before another election in which the conservatives get a majority, who knows ?

 

[The Large One]

I havent really given it a thought , but its virtually jumping out of the screen and screaming out that that is what you're hoping and praying for. My feeling is that we'll bumble along for a while before another election in which the conservatives get a majority, who knows ?

One thing which guarantee that that scenario won't happen is if Brown and Clegg end up bumbling along trying to form a coalition. Give it 18 months - if that - then there'll be another General Election, and the Labour will disappear/implode.

My guess is whoever forms this next (coalition) government is taking on a poison chalice and will lose the next election - if nothing else because they are the ones who will have to make the unpopular cuts.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

I havent really given it a thought , but its virtually jumping out of the screen and screaming out that that is what you're hoping and praying for. My feeling is that we'll bumble along for a while before another election in which the conservatives get a majority, who knows ?

Another election in, say, 6 months would be interesting. Clegg would no longer be the surprise he was this time, so he's shot his bolt. Which gives us a straight fight between the two. I can't see the tories ditching CMD, as, quite frankly, I don't think they have anyone else, but why would his vote increase on a second run ? If Milliband (or someone) was to be made leader, it could be a cause for increased popularity.

 

[User removed 4]

Another election in, say, 6 months would be interesting. Clegg would no longer be the surprise he was this time, so he's shot his bolt. Which gives us a straight fight between the two. I can't see the tories ditching CMD, as, quite frankly, I don't think they have anyone else, but why would his vote increase on a second run ? If Milliband (or someone) was to be made leader, it could be a cause for increased popularity.

You could be right , but to be honest i think milliband has a bit of the william hague 'looks a bit weird' factor, i just dont think he comes across well with voters , you would see unparalelled usage of this if he were to become leader

 

[Rookie]

Labour's spin and propaganda