[Football] The race for 4th

[SeagullsoverLondon]

That's why I put it in parentheses. Four matches ago there was plenty of discussion about the next 5 matches against teams we should expect to beat if we were to be serious contenders for top 7 or 8. A good return of 8 points plus would be a springboard for the rest of the season. A poor return of 3 points or less would be the opposite.

Yes but it never works out like that in reality. If you look at Giraffe's tracker you see we often get points in unexpected place (Anfield this season and last for example). People seem to think the last game you play is a good predictor for the next (see Lawro's predictions) whereas unless you are Chelsea, Man City or Liverpool it usually isn't.

Fwiw I think top 10, maybe even top 7 is achievable this season, but equally we could end up 16th, if things go badly. However, I do think this will be the first season we aren't still worried about the possibility of relegation come March.

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[The Wookiee]

6 points off the relegation zone is loads. People think it's two games but it isn't, because the teams down there pick up about a point a game. It would likely need 5 or 6 defeats on the trot for us to slip down there. I never understand how people seem to forget this every year.

Yes I know that, but don’t you think 5 points off 4th is also loads ? Equally 4th place isn’t just two wins away anymore than two losses sinks us hovering above the relegation zone.

My point I was trying to make was bar the bottom 3, any team can go on a winning run and challenge the top 6 just as any team around us can go on a losing run and end up just above the bottom 3.

It’s a tight division this year excluding the bottom 3 and top 3

 

[Perkino]

Top 10 would be incredible. 4th should be Man Utd

For us to challenge we need to win against the relegation fodder and kill games off when on top