The Grand National Thread

[Hannibal smith]

Hannibal what are your thoughts on offshore account?

I can't back it for the following reason. In 2007 at Punchestown I had the family silver on Aces Four. All it had to do was jump the last and win. Unfortunately, Graham F**King Lee (as he is now always referred to) asked him for the biggest jump of the day when he has a history of clattering fences late on. Aces fell and has never been the same since. Shame as one of friends owns a stake in him.

Offshore account won by default almost falling over the line. He didn't look like a stayer that day to me but I maybe being churlish as it was a hard run race over 3m 2. Even so - only one run this year and off the track in 2008. Too many question marks for me.

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[Hannibal smith]

And one other thing. All the animal rights crusties complaining over the years will ensure that Aintree is well watered. Don't go overboard finding a good - firm ground horse or top yourself if your horse likes good -soft.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Here it is. Just in case anyone points it out (1) Some of the horses names are spelt wrong and I'll check before i submit (Kilbaggen blade especially) and (2) I need to check that is was 3m 2 that Fleet street was running on at. Either way its not a doubtful stayer in my view.

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Welcome to the Grand National preview 2009. A 40 runner handicap can look daunting to back the winner but using past analysis we can eliminate a large quantity of the field using factors such as weight, age, form, stamina and Racism.

What do you think of the French? Nicolas Sarkozy? Shifty? David Ginola? Lazy? Monsieur LeClerc from Allo Allo? Incompetent? Well. It’s not just their Politicians, ageing footballers and fictional resistance fighters that we don’t trust. It’s their horses as well. No French bred horse has won the national in the past 100 years and in the past 2 years have made up over 25% of the field including the favourite in 2007 and second favourite in 2008. None have made the frame. On that basis we can discount Cerium, Golden Flight, Iron Man, Kelami, L’ami, Mon Mome and most notably My Will and Butlers Cabin with a nonchalant Gallic flick of the pen.

The biggest gamble I’ve ever seen was in the 2007 Gold Cup on My Will. 30 minutes before the off one of the regulars in my local pub, Billy, collapsed. We knew it was serious - he spilt his pint. As the ambulance took our heart attack victim away one wag suggested that this was a message from god to back My Will. In a pub with standing room only everyone to a man backed it off the boards. Sadly it was misplaced but when Billy recovered he saw the funny side. He had backed the winner Kauto Star.

Coupled with the French bred stat is Paul Nicholls abject record in the national who trains My Will. He has only ever had one placed horse from over 40 runners in the national. Given that he also had a hard Cheltenham race, 8-1 is no price for his chance despite his generously allocated weight. A case can be argued for Butlers Cabin who has form over 3m but he fell last year and Tony McCoy is another with a bad national record to overcome and he will surely ride Butlers Cabin although he has yet to publicly state this. A short price of 9-1 means he should be passed over as well.

Next to go are overweight horses. I don’t mean obese, Pie munching, salad dodging dobbins but those who are set to carry too much. For the uninitiated, each horse is allocated a weight in the National with the best horse allocated the highest weight to carry (up to 12st) and the worst the least (down to 10st). In theory this should make the race fair. In practice, trainers target specific races prior to the national masking the horses true rating. This is by running over too short a distance or over hurdles to keep the horse fit but not to endanger its official rating. This means that horses at the top end of the handicap are ‘exposed’ having a rating to reflect their best performance.

Not since RED RUM has a horse won carrying more than 11st 5lb and only Hedgehunter has won carrying over 11st since then. Over 11st 5lb, Cloudy Lane, Chelsea Harbour, Snowy Morning, Knowhere, Comply or Die, Ollie Magern, , Hear the Echo, Priests Leap & Black Appachi can be discounted. The latter should be watched if the ground comes up soft as he has excellent course form in those conditions but the handicapper clearly saw his last Aintree run too. Of those carrying over 11st Big Fella thanks and Euro Trek can be removed on age grounds. Silver Birch is no Red rum and isn’t my idea of a dual national winner. This leaves State of Play of all runners over 11st. I fancy him for a place and he should take to Aintree given his liking for flat tracks. I would imagine something will come out of the lower handicapped pack to beat him.

Next to go are doubtful stayers. Horses without winning form over 3m should be omitted. Dwain Chambers wouldn’t win a marathon even if the prize was for a cabinet full of steroids and Paula Radcliffe wouldn’t beat me in a sprint to the toilet. Not since Gay Trip in 1970 has a horse won the national without this form in the bag. Of those not already discounted Tumbling Dice, Arteea, Maljimar, Musica Bella and Irish Invader are struck off with confidence. Seasonal debutants are next to go. National winners are generally trained all year with the race in mind and those without a run surely aren’t fit enough to triumph. Zabenz can be removed as can Offshore account. He surely has enough weight considering his long absences from the track and would be a suitably unpopular named winner given how bankers are currently viewed alongside Fred West and the Nazi’s.

Horses younger than 8 have not triumphed in this race now for 69 years. Whilst this is an amusing number it’s no good for betting purposes. The national is for experienced horses and it’s not surprising when you consider the carnage that has sometimes ensued in previous years. Big Fella Thanks (7) and Eurotrek (13 – too old) have already gone but Pomme Tiepy (6 years old) and Can’t buy time (7) can also have the red pen treatment.

This leaves us with a more manageable 12 runners. Of those Cornish Sett is a difficult sort and another to suffer from the Paul Nicholls trained 1 placed from 40 runners stat. Parson Legacy, Kilbaggen bride & Brooklyn brownie need softer ground than they are likely to get. Fundamentalist and Battlecry may not be likely to stay although that accusation has also been levelled at Fleet Street and Idle Talk by many a racing pundit. I don’t see it for Fleet Street – he was running on strongly after 3m 2 at Cheltenham and I wouldn’t put anyone off throwing a few quid at him especially on a flat track. Idle Talk’s trainer knows a thing or two about national winners (Donald Mccain, son to Ginger who trained Red Rum and Amberleigh House to victory) and he is convinced he is better trained this year to stay the 4m 4f and that 66-1 is an outstanding bet. If he stays he could spring a surprise and I’ll be backing E/W for a place.

This Leaves 4 horses. Himalayan Trail, Darkness, Rambling Minster and Southern Vic. Southern Vic is an Irish horse with a profile similar to Papillion who won a few years back for trainer Ted Walsh. His slight negatives are that his son Ruby Walsh prefers to ride My Will and that there is a feeling he would favour softer ground. I sense that Ruby Walsh may have picked My Will with diplomacy in mind (given the plum rides he receives from the same owner trainer combination) but I can’t help feel his judgement is one of the better in the paddock as his pick on Cooldine over various alternatives at Cheltenham this year show. Shame, as everything else is in his favour but I have just stopped short of fancying him for a place.

Himalayan Trail is another Irish raider but has not been on form this year. It would be no surprise to see him leave that behind especially as he has form over long distances and his trainer has won the national with Monty’s pass. I can’t put you off if you fancy him.

Darkness ticks all the right boxes but there are doubts over the quality of the opposition that he beat last time out. Even so, he is value at this current price of 25-1 and is good enough to make the frame and worth an E/W bet.

The pick of the bunch though is RAMBLING MINSTER. He has great, age, Weight, form, races prominently (imperative at Aintree) and won impressively last time out over 3m 4f at Haydock. He is my main bet for the race and has no negatives to speak of except that 10-1 won’t make you rich if he wins.

Good Luck.

Prediction.

1. Rambling Minster 10-1
2. Darkness 25-1
3. State of Play 16-1
4. Idle Talk 66-1

Very impressive but I confidently predict EVERY aspect of this analysis will be shot be shot to pieces by 4pm tomorrow afternoon. You see the Grand National DOES NOT follow this in depth logic and form studying so its very worthy but a complete and utter waste of time.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Very impressive but I confidently predict EVERY aspect of this analysis will be shot be shot to pieces by 4pm Saturday afternoon. You see the Grand National DOES NOT follow this in depth logic and form studying so its very worthy but a complete and utter waste of time.

 

[Hannibal smith]

Very impressive but I confidently predict EVERY aspect of this analysis will be shot be shot to pieces by 4pm Saturday afternoon. You see the Grand National DOES NOT follow this in depth logic and form studying so its very worthy but a complete and utter waste of time.

It may well be but trends have a habit of repaeting themselves. I was truly amazed how many came in at Cheltenham this year. A horse over 11st 5lb (especially now the handicaps have been compressed) or a French bred may well win sooner or later but if you don't exclude them - Where do you start finding a winner in a 40 runner race?

Besides which its my only contribution to my newsletter that ever gets read (unless methodology of IT Project management or advanced swimming techniques is your thing )

 

[tottenhamseagull]

...

Thanks...Missed that!!

 

[Barry Izbak]

Very impressive but I confidently predict EVERY aspect of this analysis will be shot be shot to pieces by 4pm Saturday afternoon. You see the Grand National DOES NOT follow this in depth logic and form studying so its very worthy but a complete and utter waste of time.

Let's just cast our minds back to Cheltenham and compare and contrast the level of success achieved by the above two posters.

I may bear this in mind when choosing who to listen to when selecting this year's National horse (in addition to My Will)

 

[Trigger]

Right, after two and half minutes solid studying I have come up with this top four...

1st Black Apalachi
2nd Parsons Legacy
3rd Cornish Sett
4th Butlers Cabin

 

[bright1064]

I'm on State of Play E/W, got odds of 14/1. Missed out on the longer odds just a day before when it was at like 22/1

 

[Mtoto]

Never mind, Hannibal, the doubters are ultimately the ones who will line our pockets.

The trend I worry about personally is the French-breds. The idea took hold a few years ago that they don't last as long as Irish-breds, and don't stay as far, but I think that was as much as anything to do with the ones that people were buying back then. A lot of them had already had a dozen starts over fences by the end of their four-year-old season, so it's not that surprising that they burned out relatively quickly.

Anthony Bromley et al are buying a different sort now, and if they are trained sympathetically, as Nicholls and others have now learned to do, I think they'll last as long as any others. Royal Auclair and Kauto Star would also suggest there's no inbuilt reason why they won't stay proper trips.

 

[Hannibal smith]

Never mind, Hannibal, the doubters are ultimately the ones who will line our pockets.

The trend I worry about personally is the French-breds. The idea took hold a few years ago that they don't last as long as Irish-breds, and don't stay as far, but I think that was as much as anything to do with the ones that people were buying back then. A lot of them had already had a dozen starts over fences by the end of their four-year-old season, so it's not that surprising that they burned out relatively quickly.

I know all about unsympathetically trained french bred horses. I paid for a year for one to sit in a field. The thoery is that they are bred more for speed but I do take the point that some have been unlucky (none more so than Clan Royal). When one comes in (as it surely will given the numbers) I will think again but I can't fancy either Butlers Cabin or My Will who are the only 2 with realistic chances in any case.

Anyway. Walk on and Big Bucks so far today. Not going to make me rich but better than a kick in the teeth and both sign posted by previous trends. Speculative very small bet on Our Vic in the next. Don't fancy anything especially Denman.

 

[Mtoto]

If you follow the main Paul Jones trends I'd think you'd want to be Albertas Run (18 of 25 ran in Gold Cup, 7 of last 12 were in first three in the King George). Though you can't be too slavish about it. Am just off to inspect Denman in the paddock, will report back soon if anyone's interested.

 

[Stevie Boy]

Black Apalachi, is this one going to be placed??

 

[Trigger]

Black Apalachi, is this one going to be placed??

Join me in praying for some rain, a bit of give in the ground and he'll go very well.

 

[Scotty Mac]

my will
darkness e/w
cloudy lane e/w

SNORTED

 

[the viscount]

For the next 48 hours I am going to confine myself to a dark room and continually pray for rain.

WHY may i ask!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Stevie Boy]

Join me in praying for some rain, a bit of give in the ground and he'll go very well.

heavy rain forecasted on saturday

 

[Trigger]

WHY may i ask!!!!!!!!!!!!

My horsey needs it.

 

[the viscount]

My horsey needs it.

If its any thing like the one that run's around the county ground it will need a stiff Magners!!!

RAMBLING MINISTER FOR ME, AND one OTHER I WILL GIVE ON SATURDAY

 

[Taybha]

1st Darkness
2nd Killbeggan Blade
3rd State Of Play
4Th Silver Birch