[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[Mellotron]

Great news if true:

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

I would argue it’s good and bad news.

Good news - most people who are infected will be fine. Also might mean it’ll all be over quicker than originally thought.

Bad news - WAY more people are getting infected than originally thought, and social distancing is even more important than we thought.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Great news if true:

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

Definitely belongs on the good news thread but just illustrates what an absolute disgrace the lack of testing in the UK has been. Sort it out Boris.

 

[Poojah]

Backs up previous studies. Even if they’re out by 10 or 15%, it’s still a positive in terms of the dreaded second wave.

It will be very interesting to see what happens in China over the course of the next few weeks. If no second wave occurs, it will be far easier for Western governments and businesses to plan ahead.

That’s a huge ‘if’, but several studies seem to have backed the idea that the virus has visited for more of us than we are aware of.

 

[Bozza]

Bill Gates continuing to do good things, in this case knowing he'll waste billions of dollars to ensure there are factories to produce the best vaccines that emerge.

[tweet]1245889758322200576[/tweet]

https://www.businessinsider.com/bil...accines-to-fight-coronavirus-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

 

[dazzer6666]

Definitely belongs on the good news thread but just illustrates what an absolute disgrace the lack of testing in the UK has been. Sort it out Boris.

Does it ? How would you determine who to test out of 70m people ? Even with severe symptoms only 20% of those tested are being found to actually have it.

Think the really big win will be a reliable antibody test - seems they are struggling to find one that works well but as soon as they do the population will have to be blitzed as fast as possible.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Does it ? How would you determine who to test out of 70m people ? Even with severe symptoms only 20% of those tested are being found to actually have it.

Think the really big win will be a reliable antibody test - seems they are struggling to find one that works well but as soon as they do the population will have to be blitzed as fast as possible.

If you look at South Korea the answer is obvious. You find all of the contacts of confirmed cases, test them and isolate them. You also test NHS staff regularly and first of all. We don't need to test all 70m people, but the strategy up to now has been wrong, and badly executed.

Agree about the antibody test though - that will be a game changer.

 

[RossyG]

 

[Postman Pat]

View attachment 121758

Similar stats to the ones from China, considering these people didn't think they have ever had it, add in those that thought they had it but were not tested as didn't need hospitalization, that could be a massive number of people who are potentially immune.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Similar stats to the ones from China, considering these people didn't think they have ever had it, add in those that thought they had it but were not tested as didn't need hospitalization, that could be a massive number of people who are potentially immune.

Right, I might be spouting more bollocks here, indeed it is entirely likely, but what are we to glean from the fact that so few cases are confirmed compared to the number of tests carried out?

Since these have been carried out for the active virus rather that antibodies (assumption number one on my part) on people who were either ill enough to go to hospital or VIPS (BoJo, Charlie, Arteta) (assumption number two on my part) then one can only conclude:

a) the test is flawed or
b) there is another virulent flu / pneumonia doing the rounds

Is it even possible that if b) is true then there are people who are asymptomatic to CV19 who have been unlucky enough to get a different respiratory illness?

I can't get my head round the 2/3rds of us are asymptomatic data versus the "hardly anyone tested had it" data. And the sample sizes on both sides are quite small anyway (but much more on the recent antibody test side).

 

[Norman Potting]

Wise words here in my view

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/52167632

 

[RossyG]

I can't get my head round the 2/3rds of us are asymptomatic data versus the "hardly anyone tested had it" data. And the sample sizes on both sides are quite small anyway (but much more on the recent antibody test side).

Is it that one test shows only if you currently have it while the other shows if you’ve had it and got over it?

So those with antibodies (i.e. those who have had it without knowing and recovered) show up as negative on the “has this person got CV” test. They only show as positive if you do the specific antibody test that was done in Iceland, Italy etc...

 

[Mellotron]

Is it that one test shows only if you currently have it while the other shows if you’ve had it and got over it?

So those with antibodies (i.e. those who have had it without knowing and recovered) show up as negative on the “has this person got CV” test. They only show as positive if you do the specific antibody test that was done in Iceland, Italy etc...

This.

The “do you have it now” test is almost completely useless in giving us any kind of idea how wide the virus has spread over the past 3 months.

All about the antibody tests.

 

[dazzer6666]

This.

The “do you have it now” test is almost completely useless in giving us any kind of idea how wide the virus has spread over the past 3 months.

All about the antibody tests.

Exactly.......the mass testing for antigens (ie ‘do you have is now’) moment has long since passed. It’s only useful now in hospital really to be able to isolate those who do have it from those who don’t. I’m still expecting the antibody test to show that numbers that have been infected are enormous. Hope they can get a reliable test out asap.

 

[RossyG]

 

[Guinness Boy]

Is it that one test shows only if you currently have it while the other shows if you’ve had it and got over it?

So those with antibodies (i.e. those who have had it without knowing and recovered) show up as negative on the “has this person got CV” test. They only show as positive if you do the specific antibody test that was done in Iceland, Italy etc...

This.

The “do you have it now” test is almost completely useless in giving us any kind of idea how wide the virus has spread over the past 3 months.

All about the antibody tests.

So I agree, but how are these thousands of other people presenting in A&E with CV19 symptoms?

 

[Mellotron]

So I agree, but how are these thousands of other people presenting in A&E with CV19 symptoms?

The symptoms are massively varied, so could be for so many reasons? However you might be right that these tests aren’t always picking up COVID when it should be, if that’s what you are suggesting. Not sure really, it is a head scratcher. I suspect all will become clearer over the next weeks and months.

 

[Herr Ing Gull]

If you're fed up with all this social distancing malarkey, get a dog. From my observations this afternoon, a significant proportion of dog walkers are either immune to Wu flu or have been granted an exemption to the rules everyone else is attempting to follow. Or maybe they should be on the Corona virus c**t thread.

Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk

 

[pb21]

Apparently the UK government have been testing 3,500 people for antibodies since February.

We should have a pretty good understanding of how widespread this is and presumably this is being reflected in our policy.

The prime minister’s spokesman said “surveillance” of the population to determine the spread of coronavirus was ongoing, with 3,500 antibody tests carried out per week.

“This is a population surveillance programme which we have been carrying out since February,” said the spokesman.

“It is being done by Public Health England at their campus which is at Porton Down.

“We currently have capacity for 3,500 of these surveillance tests to be carried out this week which is enough for small-scale population sampling.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08532a0e6675e1#block-5e872e568f08532a0e6675e1

 

[Mellotron]

Apparently the UK government have been testing 3,500 people for antibodies since February.

We should have a pretty good understanding of how widespread this is and presumably this is being reflected in our policy.



https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08532a0e6675e1#block-5e872e568f08532a0e6675e1

Perhaps the info gleaned from this is helping inform the Imperial College thoughts regarding how long lockdown will need to be?

Glad to hear they are doing this without publishing results, absolutely the right way to go. Also those links suggest 3,500 a week, no?

 

[nwgull]

View attachment 121762

Fox News though.