[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[LamieRobertson]

I just hope people are sensible in January / February with the end in sight and don't start going too nuts, which in turn could lead to another unnecessary spike and put the programme at unnecessary risk for the rest of us.

Don’t disagree....but I’m looking forward to the time when I’m not told what to do and what not to on the current scale...and those who havnt got long to live are allowed to live it with more freedom.

The beginning of the end of the health crisis and hopefully some lessons learnt?

 

[origigull]

I can see that this vaccine might be used in countries where logistics are very good due to ultra low temps and the Oxford/AZ one used in countries where there isn't the facilities.

 

[Change at Barnham]

For any one who dies from the virus once the vaccine programme gets underway, it will be like serving in WWII from 1939 and then getting killed in 1945.

Let's hope we can reduce that as much as humanly possible, starting with being sensible between 22nd and 27th Dec.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The cacophony of noise from the NSC viral experts who said there would never be a vaccine is but a distant memory now

 

[middletoenail]

I've heard it often mentioned about the possibility of needing to have the vaccine to travel with some long-haul airlines or to attend certain events.

With the vaccination programme about to be unrolled I haven't seen any mention of how confirmation will be provided.
If they don't have something in place for a phone app or a paper certificate I envisage it could be difficult to get evidence 6 months later when we might need to produce a document.

Has any one heard any news of what will be provided?

I know that Cathay Pacific have started looking into it with the organisation below.

https://thecommonsproject.org/commonpass

 

[Uter]

[TWEET]1334046515233497090[/TWEET]

Should hopefully mean that by the end of February we should be well on our way out of the woods

That's the period it takes to become fully effective. Most people will start to have some protection prior to this. If they can get things moving quickly then I am hopeful we'll see a drop in deaths and hospitalisations even sooner.

 

[blue-shifted]

The cacophony of noise from the NSC viral experts who said there would never be a vaccine is but a distant memory now

It was never a certainty

 

[Yoda]

We won't need it in 6 months. Once 70% of the population have been vaccinated, the R number will drop to <1 even without social distancing and other safeguards and the virus will soon become rare enough that we don't need to worry about it.

As long as R0 is kept low, the lower the percentage of the population needs to be vaccinated/have been infected to achieve herd immunity. Based on the table below, 70% will only be needed if it's allowed to reach an R of about 3

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

It was never a certainty

The NSC experts were certain though.

 

[Notters]

I have to admit to doing a little jig around the kitchen this morning when I heard the approval news on Today. This is FANTASTIC news.

And please lay off the Brexit nonsense on here people.

If we don't have a deal there may be issues getting the vaccine here, so it isn't nonsense.

I won't mention it again though.

 

[Guinness Boy]

If we don't have a deal there may be issues getting the vaccine here, so it isn't nonsense.

I won't mention it again though.

Not on here.

Fill your boots on the other several threads discussing that sort of thing.

 

[Poojah]

I know that Cathay Pacific have started looking into it with the organisation below.

https://thecommonsproject.org/commonpass

This is true of other airlines. I'm quite literally in the middle of doing some financial forecasting for a major airline (for a specific marketing channel for internal budget planning purposes, not the airline as a whole), and of course I'm having to factor in the emergence of the planet from the Covid crisis into the model.

This is not a single, sliding scale, but rather dependent on the size of a given destination nation's population, their vaccination infrastructure and current infection levels. For those reasons, the likes of Australia will open up much sooner than India for instance, or at least that's the theory I'm having to attempt to apply. Clearly, I'm a marketer and not a scientist so making these kind of projections has me some way outside of my comfort zone and skillset.

The as yet unofficial school of thought appears to be that a country's ability to properly open up will rest on their success in vaccinating its vulnerable people and a requirement that most if not all inbound travellers are vaccinated. As the former improves (as well as that of the country of origin), the latter will become less of a requirement, until such a time when it is no longer required at all. For some countries, that is likely to be in the immediate months ahead, for others it's likely to run into next year, or at least that seems to be the thinking.

 

[Chicken Run]

If we don't have a deal there may be issues getting the vaccine here, so it isn't nonsense.

I won't mention it again though.

You come across as a fairly intelligent sort of bloke, what posses you to come on the Good News Thread and spout this, what’s the rationale behind it?

 

[macbeth]

Dumb/Oversimplified conclusion - JVT is suggesting the highest priority 33% of us getting the vaccine will stop a very, very high proportion of deaths.

Thinking about this now, obviously there's distribution challenges with the Pfizer vaccine, but if we need to vaccinate the 22 million vulnerable to eliminate nearly all the deaths, we have 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, enough for 20 million people.

That's nearly enough to get the job done, even before you factor in the Astrazeneca and Moderna vaccines. Normality may take bit longer, but it's easily conceivable that we could have cut the death numbers to near zero by March. Wow!

 

[Fungus]

For any one who dies from the virus once the vaccine programme gets underway, it will be like serving in WWII from 1939 and then getting killed in 1945.

Let's hope we can reduce that as much as humanly possible, starting with being sensible between 22nd and 27th Dec.

Maybe more like returning from WWI in November 1918, then dying by Christmas in the Spanish flu pandemic?

 

[nwgull]

As long as R0 is kept low, the lower the percentage of the population needs to be vaccinated/have been infected to achieve herd immunity. Based on the table below, 70% will only be needed if it's allowed to reach an R of about 3

The natural/unprotected R for C19 is 3 though, isn't it? Meaning that provided we've got >70% vaccinated, the country can get back to normal living.

 

[Notters]

You come across as a fairly intelligent sort of bloke, what posses you to come on the Good News Thread and spout this, what’s the rationale behind it?

I consider myself told off!

[MENTION=36290]macbeth[/MENTION] don't forget the Novavax one for which several of us are guineapigs.

The natural/unprotected R for C19 is 3 though, isn't it? Meaning that provided we've got >70% vaccinated, the country can get back to normal living.

Potentially far less than that if you take into account a) the people who've already had it (10%) and the people who have innate immunity, possibly as a result of other coronaviruses.

 

[Yoda]

The natural/unprotected R for C19 is 3 though, isn't it? Meaning that provided we've got >70% vaccinated, the country can get back to normal living.

If we went back to normal now, yes. But with R lower, that brings the threshold down.

 

[Mellotron]

Thinking about this now, obviously there's distribution challenges with the Pfizer vaccine, but if we need to vaccinate the 22 million vulnerable to eliminate nearly all the deaths, we have 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, enough for 20 million people.

That's nearly enough to get the job done, even before you factor in the Astrazeneca and Moderna vaccines. Normality may take bit longer, but it's easily conceivable that we could have cut the death numbers to near zero by March. Wow!

Good news indeed. I suspect we’re waiting on approval for Oxford, and if that comes soon we can really get mass vaccination going quite rapidly.

My understanding is we’ll have lots of doses of that available quicker, and of course without the issue of cold chain storage it can be distributed and administered much more readily.

Without wanting to be too cheesy, I would say COVID-19 is now mortally wounded and it’s simply a matter of time.

 

[Napper]

For any one who dies from the virus once the vaccine programme gets underway, it will be like serving in WWII from 1939 and then getting killed in 1945.

Let's hope we can reduce that as much as humanly possible, starting with being sensible between 22nd and 27th Dec.

not sure can compare serving in war to this virus haha

Maybe if you say anyone over age 90 who is vulnerable who survives then it may be more comparable