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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]



F

FloatLeft

Well-known member
Jun 12, 2012
1,624
The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2012-13 season]

I know people say the British are obsessed by the weather but I have found this thread fascinating. Where do you get this data from Papa? I guess you must work for the Met Office.

Amazing how different the models can be, but then all converge as the forecast date gets nearer to the current date.
 






Bigtomfu

Bigtomfu

New member
Jul 25, 2003
4,416
Harrow


Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,185
Worthing
FloatLeft said:
I know people say the British are obsessed by the weather but I have found this thread fascinating. Where do you get this data from Papa? I guess you must work for the Met Office.

Amazing how different the models can be, but then all converge as the forecast date gets nearer to the current date.
Click to expand...

All the publicly available data is on this site (plus others).


Meteociel - Mo pour la France

Discussion of the latest model output is available from TheWeatherOutlook – weather forecasts and data


And Netweather.tv - Weather forecasts, news and information for the UK in the forum (I'm not a member here, as it gets a little feisty).

I do not work for the Met Office but did study meteorology at Uni as part of a Geog Science Degree, and wanted to be a weather man as a kid, but didn't get the necessary grades back in the day
 


R

ryans father

New member
Jul 19, 2005
290
East Sheen SW14
Current thinking from most models is for potentially light snow late saturday and Saturday night. Further snow in the east on Sunday with more significant snow Monday into Tuesday. Further snow events are very possible further down the line but details are difficult to predict.
 




Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,185
Worthing
ryans father said:
Current thinking from most models is for potentially light snow late saturday and Saturday night. Further snow in the east on Sunday with more significant snow Monday into Tuesday. Further snow events are very possible further down the line but details are difficult to predict.
Click to expand...

True, the majority of the models don't go for a clean easterly or northerly flow, but a more messy outlook, but, importantly with very cold air involved. Such setups can and have delivered some memorable snow fall events and longer periods of winter weather. It's the battleground / boundary events that deliver the heaviest snow.

Lest not forget that this weekend into Monday is agreed across all models, so it will get progressively colder from tomorrow and we should see some snow,either frontal late Saturday into Sunday, or snow showers Sunday into Monday, or from the occluded front coming South Monday into Tuesday.
 
















Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,185
Worthing
In true weather watching tradition the models are all over the place again this morning. Still good til Tuesday though with good snow chances; after then, who knows?
 


M

Muzzy

Well-known member
Jan 25, 2011
4,787
Lewes
The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2012-13 season]

You're not gonna let me down now are you papa? ;)
 








chucky1973

chucky1973

New member
Nov 3, 2010
8,829
Crawley
Papa Lazarou said:
In true weather watching tradition the models are all over the place again this morning. Still good til Tuesday though with good snow chances; after then, who knows?
Click to expand...

Dont let this happen Papa, please ensure that we get lots of the white stuff from Sunday.
Thanks
 


S

seven stands

New member
May 25, 2006
2,690
hastings
Wrap up warm Saturday



BBC Weather : United Kingdom
Friday 11 January Published at 00:29
UK Warnings
Weather Warning
Friday 11th January
YELLOW EARLY WARNING of SNOW
Rain will turn increasingly to snow during the course of Saturday across more eastern parts of Wales and the southwest Midlands, firstly over high ground, and later to low levels.
There is the potential for 5-10cm of snow to accumulate on ground above 200m, with localised accumulations of 2-5cm eventually at lower levels.
The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.
Valid on Saturday from 1200 until 2355.
Friday 11th January
YELLOW EARLY WARNING of ICE
Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow will gradually clear southwards on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will then fall rapidly, leading to a risk of icy surfaces across much of Wales, the Midlands and southern England.
The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.
Valid from 1800 Saturday until 1000 Sunday.
Friday 11th January
YELLOW EARLY WARNING of SNOW
It will turning colder through this weekend, with snow showers likely to affect eastern coastal counties of Scotland and England.
Amounts of snow are uncertain and are likely to be highly variable with some places seeing very little. However, 5-10cm could accumulate locally, particularly over hills above 200m, with icy surfaces an additional hazard.
The public should be aware of the potential for localised disruption to travel.
Valid from 1800 Saturday until 1200 Sunday.
 






Giraffe

Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,946
My reading from snow shy Worthing is that we won't get any. I've seen this build up before and it leads to disapointment. I'm an avid Net Weather watcher and I can see the way that is going and it's not looking for Worthingites.
 


Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,185
Worthing
Giraffe said:
My reading from snow shy Worthing is that we won't get any. I've seen this build up before and it leads to disapointment. I'm an avid Net Weather watcher and I can see the way that is going and it's not looking for Worthingites.
Click to expand...

The latest output is worrying for Worthing - the Met Office forecast for Fri - Tues only mentions rain early and dry and cold later. Let's hope they change, eh?
 


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