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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Woodchip
It's all about the bikes
Fred the twat and his merry men have said no snow this week.
Sent by the power of squirrel poo
Sent by the power of squirrel poo
BBC just said we might get a dusting tonight
robinsonsgrin
Well-known member
Had a little unintended fun in the car in a small lane near Gatwick - thought I was stuck for a while - there was a decent amount there
hm....there is a word for that kind of fun bozza... different thread i think!!
hm....there is a word for that kind of fun bozza... different thread i think!!
philsussex
New member
We need papa's word on this
nevergoagain
Well-known member
Bah, last night Netweather was saying 90%+ chance of snow today. This morning, nothing at all.
Woodchip
It's all about the bikes
On the bus going through Seaford town and one end of Seaford is still white (gardens and playing fields at least), the other end is completely clear.
Sent by the power of squirrel poo
Sent by the power of squirrel poo
Woodchip
It's all about the bikes
Oh, and the forecast according to my phone...
Sent by the power of squirrel poo
Sent by the power of squirrel poo
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
I would not bother with Netweather personally. I've found it to be wildly inaccurate and they base their forecasts on the GFS models which are usually less reliable than the ECM. To be fair 90% chance of snow also means 10% chance of no snow.
Netweather was showing 97% snow chance for 18:00 tonight onwards yesterday, that's now been pushed back to 00:00 tonight with 0% now up till then. So fingers crossed for a small amount when I wake up tomorrow.
But then again if Netweather are rubbish, it's probably best to ignore!
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Any automated forecast that works directly from GFS (BBC, Netweather, Metcheck) are all prone to wild swings with the 4 times a day model output. Only what there is strong cross model support will these forecasts be worth trusting fully. At the moment, with snow being created by small troughs and other features they won't be able to keep up with the seemingly minor changes which change the likelihood of snow here.
The GFS ensemble is still showing a good chance of some light snow over the next 36 hours - but it will be light, if at all, so don't get too excited.
The GFS ensemble is still showing a good chance of some light snow over the next 36 hours - but it will be light, if at all, so don't get too excited.
Da Man Clay
T'Blades
- Dec 16, 2004
- 16,278
Whats the longer term looking like PL? Is this likely to be it or does there appear to be more on the horizon...
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
there was doom and gloom yesterday when all models seemed to point to a quick return to mild westerlies, with the Polar vortex heading back to Greenland across most models. Today's output is much more interesting with the ECM ensemble of 51 runs all showing High pressure to our West or NW, so that would suggest a potential N or NE flow after this week, but who know how long that would last?
This week looks very cold. Has anyone noticed how much colder it got as the cloud cleared away earlier? Here is dropped from 2C to 1.3C in about 1/2 hour. Tonight's going to be very very cold, even down here (until the cloud rolls in off the East coast again).
Woodchip
It's all about the bikes
Did the 12s show anything exiting?
Sent by the power of squirrel poo
Sent by the power of squirrel poo
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,596
Haven't started yet. GFS starts at 4ish, UKMO starts about 4.20ish and ECM starts about 6ish. We'll know what's happening with the all models about 7pm, that will allow time to see the GFS ensembles.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Ah, the wonderful cycle of hope and despair.
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,596
why......why do we do it when we know it is hardly ever going to show us what we want!
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Interestingly at 144Z (about as far as is even partially reliable) the big 3 all agree 
12Z GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png
0Z ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif
12Z UKMO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
And they show high pressure building over Greenland and our local high ridging to join it. This is how a northerly develops, with the Greenland ridge allowing low pressure to drop down through Scandinavia. So, possibly good news.
Thr 12Z ECM will be key to seeing if it's really agreement or just coincidence.
12Z GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png
0Z ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif
12Z UKMO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
And they show high pressure building over Greenland and our local high ridging to join it. This is how a northerly develops, with the Greenland ridge allowing low pressure to drop down through Scandinavia. So, possibly good news.
Thr 12Z ECM will be key to seeing if it's really agreement or just coincidence.
Giant Seagull
That was textbook
UK snow cover from space | Liam Dutton on Weather. Liam Duttons blog has a snow cover map and shows the contrast between East and West Sussex.