[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Papa Lazarou]

View attachment 60650

Well this looks interesting...

(excuse my sadness).

The latest GFS and to a lesser extent ECMWF are showing an interesting development, which is the possible amplification of the jet-stream, which means that instead of powering un-checked around the globe (giving windy / wet weather) it starts to develop an sinusoidal pattern, with blocking Highs in places and cold air reaching further South in others.

It's early days, and sadly the GFS Operational run didn't have any support for snow next weekend, but the theme is important and a number of the ensemble members show some form of blocking and a potential northerly at some stage - so worth keeping an eye on I'd say.

 

[driller]

Bookies slash odds for White Christmas
Temperatures due to plunge to -8
Only daily express headline but

Any truth in this?

 

[Giraffe]

Only daily express headline but

Any truth in this?

I think you have probably answered your own question there.

 

[narly101]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/natur...-Moscow-Cold-Met-Office-Warning-Winter-Freeze

End.Of.Days.

 

[narly101]

and from the same article - a grammar problem. Anyone care to spot it?

"Morrisons said it has seen a rush on de-icer, slow cookers with electric blankets, heaters and radiators expected to fly off the shelves"

 

[Driver8]

Just had the first snowflakes of the winter here in North Wales. It's windy too so bloody freezing when I was hanging up some Christmas lights outside.

 

[HalifaxSeagull]

A bit of snow over the tops yesterday morning, with a tiny bit more for tonight apparently so expect mass school closures and panic buying of beans!

 

[pauli cee]

and from the same article - a grammar problem. Anyone care to spot it?

"Morrisons said it has seen a rush on de-icer, slow cookers with electric blankets, heaters and radiators expected to fly off the shelves"

Haha, think I might be trading in my old slow cooker for one with an electric blanket!

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Sleeting in Crap Town this morning around 11am for roughly 15 minutes.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

Talk to me.

My untrained skin reckons it's DEFFO chilly enough for snow now.

Papa, I need to know if there have been any DEVELOPMENTS.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Talk to me.

My untrained skin reckons it's DEFFO chilly enough for snow now.

Papa, I need to know if there have been any DEVELOPMENTS.

Not down here, sadly. We're just on the 'too warm' side at the moment. The models look classically setup for winter with low pressures moving East, with rain, then showers, which will be wintry in the north - and repeat.

One point which is providing interest to the model watchers is this snippet from Ian Ferguson (who works at the Met Office) about their internal data:

Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible* pattern change (weakening of MSLP anomaly; transition to -ve NAO) second half/later December, with GloSea5 continuing to yield interesting stratospheric signals later this month. So, without wanting to sound like a stuck record, I do urge 'elasticity of thought' when assessing distant reaches of EC/GFS suites.



He quotes the DC

Let me cite the Deputy Chief directly (from briefing issued this morning, based on 00z suites), to clarify exact phraseology:

"....postage stamps from both EC and MOGREPS-15 are now showing some waning in the strength of W’ly progression, with a minority of members (~40%) hinting at blocking across the Continent".

So, there may be some more interesting charts showing up in the 5-10 day range soon - if this happens.

 

[martin tyler]

Not down here, sadly. We're just on the 'too warm' side at the moment. The models look classically setup for winter with low pressures moving East, with rain, then showers, which will be wintry in the north - and repeat.

One point which is providing interest to the model watchers is this snippet from Ian Ferguson (who works at the Met Office) about their internal data:



So, there may be some more interesting charts showing up in the 5-10 day range soon - if this happens.

For an idiot in regards to weather what does this actually mean?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Just re-read that quote - it may seem like Klingon to many.

To translate:

The Mogrep (Met Office ensemble forecast) is showing within it's 13 runs signs that the current pressure patterns may be weakening across the N Hemisphere, which would translate to a less dominant Azores High and semi-permanent low pressure to our NW (which is driven by the active jet stream across the Atlantic). A transition to a -ve NAO suggest a reversal of this position, with -ve pressure anomalies near the Azores, and positive anomalies near Iceland.

See here for more in NAO http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

The Stratospheric Signal he refers to relates to Stratospheric Warming, which has a correlation to increased blocking. See here for more on this: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/

Therefore, he's saying that the model output later on may not be accurate as there are signs of a change to a more blocked pattern toward Xmas.

 

[Badger]

Not down here, sadly. We're just on the 'too warm' side at the moment. The models look classically setup for winter with low pressures moving East, with rain, then showers, which will be wintry in the north - and repeat.

One point which is providing interest to the model watchers is this snippet from Ian Ferguson (who works at the Met Office) about their internal data:



So, there may be some more interesting charts showing up in the 5-10 day range soon - if this happens.

What language is that? Welsh?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What language is that? Welsh?

No, Bocche. C3PO can translate it though.

 

[Scoffers]

Wow, I just love that phrase 'elasticity of thought', I'm gonna try and use that in a work conversation today

 

[HawkTheSeagull]

To put it bluntly - what are the chances of seeing any of the white stuff before the end of the year ?

Or will it therefore be another boring year with no snow ?

 

[Grombleton]

Just re-read that quote - it may seem like Klingon to many.

To translate:

The Mogrep (Met Office ensemble forecast) is showing within it's 13 runs signs that the current pressure patterns may be weakening across the N Hemisphere, which would translate to a less dominant Azores High and semi-permanent low pressure to our NW (which is driven by the active jet stream across the Atlantic). A transition to a -ve NAO suggest a reversal of this position, with -ve pressure anomalies near the Azores, and positive anomalies near Iceland.

See here for more in NAO http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

The Stratospheric Signal he refers to relates to Stratospheric Warming, which has a correlation to increased blocking. See here for more on this: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/

Therefore, he's saying that the model output later on may not be accurate as there are signs of a change to a more blocked pattern toward Xmas.

So, in rich dummy terms: Little chance of snow but it could change?

 

[carteater]

Not down here, sadly. We're just on the 'too warm' side at the moment. The models look classically setup for winter with low pressures moving East, with rain, then showers, which will be wintry in the north - and repeat.

One point which is providing interest to the model watchers is this snippet from Ian Ferguson (who works at the Met Office) about their internal data:



So, there may be some more interesting charts showing up in the 5-10 day range soon - if this happens.

some show snow in the south, I do a little sex wee when I see that... um...

 

[seagurn]

Any update?