[Albion] Simplistically, what do you think is our biggest problem?

[zefarelly]

obvious answer is both, we're squandering good chances to score and shipping poor goals due to mistakes, poor keeping,& shonky defending.

 

[Chicken Run]

Stop conceding from set pieces.

Start scoring from set pieces.

That would be a start.

Good point, do you remember the days when a corner occasionally delivered a goal!!!!

 

[Javeaseagull]

I never see anyone on the posts at corners. Last night was a case in point, easy clearance for anyone on the post. Is this the goalies choice?

 

[Hamilton]

We've conceded the same number of goals as Everton and only one more that Liverpool, Saints and ManUre.

It's taking chances that we need to do.

 

[Normal Rob]

But it's not an either/or is it. It's both.

 

[Audax]

Stats, however seem to suggest the absolute opposite.

In the first 11 games of four Premier league seasons, we've never scored more than this season, and also never conceded more.

So, keeping things simple, at which end of the pitch is our main issue currently??

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

We're playing a more open, attacking, brand of football now. That's going to come with both more goals scored and more goals conceded. For me, from what I've seen, listened to, and read about our season so far we're still struggling with the same thing we struggled with in previous seasons: getting the ball in the back of the net when a good chance presents itself (and also scuffing good attacks before they actually become a goal-scoring opportunity).

So for me, the difference between us winning games vs drawing them, or drawing them vs losing them, remains up front. If we had a decisive, clinical finisher in the squad we'd be doing far better right now.

 

[Dunk&Disorderly]

Set. Pieces.

 

[Seasider78]

Quality of player we are shopping in a market for strikers who need 3 chances to score and defenders who always have a mistake in them

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Presumably you'll be piling in some of your millions to take our spending even higher than our position of the 5th highest net spenders in Europe?

Ah, the classic easy-to-spend-somebody-else's-money gambit. So predictable, so easily deflected. Expected a wee bit better from you there [MENTION=2095]Commander[/MENTION], has to be said.

TB's at the top table now. He has to pay the going rate to stay at that top table. Not paying the going rate to stay at that top table will surely end in tears. Won't affect us as fans, we'll go and watch any old poop in the stripes at any level and love every minute of it. For an owner? Not so much

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Scoring goals for me. We create so many good chances and the conversion rate is not good enough. The fact we have scored more than previous seasons does not tell the whole story because we are also creating many more chances.

 

[Commander]

Ah, the classic easy-to-spend-somebody-else's-money gambit. So predictable, so easily deflected. Expected a wee bit better from you there [MENTION=2095]Commander[/MENTION], has to be said.

TB's at the top table now. He has to pay the going rate to stay at that top table. Not paying the going rate to stay at that top table will surely end in tears. Won't affect us as fans, we'll go and watch any old poop in the stripes at any level and love every minute of it. For an owner? Not so much

So no then.

Have a look at the amount of money we have invested compared to comparable teams, or in fact, any teams, in the last five years. Then tell me it isn’t enough.

As for staying at the top table, that’s exactly what he’s done, isn’t it? 3 seasons in a row now. In what way is he not doing this?

 

[Commander]

Quality of player we are shopping in a market for strikers who need 3 chances to score and defenders who always have a mistake in them

A striker that scores one in every three chances is worth about £150 million.

 

[Farehamseagull]

Scoring 100%.

Not taking our chances then has a negative effect at the other end. As an example last night, we really should have been at least 2 up by half time. If we had been, Southampton might have been more demoralised and not then scored themselves just before half time. We're keeping teams in the game that they shouldn't be by not taking our chances giving them confidence.

Also, if we did take our chances, the opposition would have to take more risks to get back into the game then freeing us up to hit them on the counter.

I think we do need an upgrade in goal but other than that, I'm not overly worried about our defence. It's all about creating and taking more clear cut chances.

 

[raymondo]

Despite the Stats, our main problem is in attach IMO. We are always going to concede some goals because we don't have the top defensive players in the League, but...despite not having the best attackers we are creating shedloads of chances. Start putting more of those in the net (from open play AND set pieces) then we'll start winning games 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 whatever...team confidence will grow and, hey presto we may even play better defensively too. Simples, eh?

 

[Seasider78]

A striker that scores one in every three chances is worth about £150 million.

Is that what Ings cost?

 

[Audax]

But we are playing a more expansive game. We are bound to concede more. We need to put away the chances we create.

We are eighth in the league for creating big chances...

https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/big_chance_created?se=363

Sixth in the league for big chances missed.

Also 4th for Hitting the Woodwork.

9th for Offsides.

8th for Shots.

But only 13th for Goals Scored.

All those stats put together suggest to me that our attacking play is doing just fine right up to the critical point. Then we're either offside, or fail to put it in the net too often.

Then defensively:

7th for Tackles

13th for Clearances

7th for Clearances off the Line

20th for Saves

Boom, think we found our problem. When you combine being unable to finish off our opportunities along with Ryan not making enough saves (or the opposition simply being accurate enough that the shots aren't saveable), that puts us in a bad place.

 

[Commander]

Is that what Ings cost?

No. He also doesn't score one in every three chances. By the stats below I make it just under one in six.

https://www.premierleague.com/players/8245/Danny-Ings/stats

 

[Audax]

Looking at some more stats across the 4 seasons, few highlights for me:

Shot Accuracy
17/18 - 31%
18/19 - 29%
19/20 - 31%
20/21 - 28%

Very little has changed here across the 4 seasons. If it was accurate to say our biggest problem under Hughton was scoring goals, then that remains true today.


Big Chances per Game
17/18 - 1.03
18/19 - 0.89
19/20 - 1.26
20/21 - 1.45

Clear to see here why Hughton got shipped out. And also clear to see the impact Potter has had - we are definitely creating more in attack than we were. But with our Accuracy % so low (compare with, say, Southampton at 46% - who incidentally have only created 8 "Big Chances") we're simply not getting the results.


Pass Accuracy
17/18 - 75%
18/19 - 75%
19/20 - 81%
20/21 - 81%

Clear again here to see that Potter has got the midfield working better than Hughton did. That's then reflected in the increase in chances created.


Cross Accuracy
17/18 - 21%
18/19 - 29%
19/20 - 22%
20/21 - 23%

I'm wondering here if the high Cross % in Hughton's final season is a reflection of where the team was at that point more than anything else. I checked a few other Clubs at random and a cross accuracy around 22-23% looks normal.


Tackle Success
17/18 - 63%
18/19 - 58%
19/20 - 59%
20/21 - 55%

We're not tackling as well under Potter as we did under Hughton. I don't necessarily see that as a problem *if* we start converting the chances we're creating.

 

[neilbard]

The stats thread showed we've scored more goals at this point than in any previous season since promotion, so clearly that's not our problem.

2017-18 scored 12
2018-19 scored 11
2019-20 scored 14
2020-21 scored 15

Hughton average @ this point in the season 11.5 goals

Potter average @ this point in the season 14.5 goals

So in conclusion all the wholesale changes Potter has made gives us a 2 goal swing on average and pretty football, I'm in.

2017-18 conceded 13
2018-19 conceded 14
2019-20 conceded 14
2020-21 conceded 18

 

[Wellesley]

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