[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

Well WW3 has already started before 2014. Whether you believe there is a Gerasimov Doctrine or not, the hybrid phase of the war has been going on for over 8 years. And here we are now with soldiers fighting in trenches.

Even a peace deal in Ukraine only pauses this phase of WW3.

Declaring that WW3 has started is nonsense. If this does descend into WW3 it will indeed be possible (if anyone is left alive) to trace the start back to some time in the past, but you're taking it as read that it's not possible for this to de-escalate and not end up with WW3 in the next few decades (or whatever timeframe you're choosing).

 

[Triggaaar]

I think we have no place to judge any agreement reached by President Zelensky as it's not us being blown up and put under the threat of chemical warfare.

Indeed and I haven't suggested otherwise. I'm simply saying that any deal they make that gives Russia land, or promises not to join NATO or the EU, can later be changed.

 

[Triggaaar]

If the Ukrainians do find an agreement by refusing to join NATO and giving up Crimea etc what happens then. Do we all automatically start trading with Russia again and all seized assets get returned? If not then how do things unfold from here on in. Russia would still be in a dire situation economically not knowing how long they will be isolated so its difficult to see where we go from here

That's an important point, I imagine no one knows the answer. Perhaps a lessening of sanctions, but not a total removal?

 

[Triggaaar]

Seems crazy that they haven't gone in, then, if they don't think it's more likely than unlikely.

If it was a 1 in 3 chance, do you think they should go in? Of course not. But that doesn't mean they think it's more likely than not.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Declaring that WW3 has started is nonsense. If this does descend into WW3 it will indeed be possible (if anyone is left alive) to trace the start back to some time in the past, but you're taking it as read that it's not possible for this to de-escalate and not end up with WW3 in the next few decades (or whatever timeframe you're choosing).

I read Alternative War by J.J.Patrick and it persuaded me that the hybrid world war has already started.

We are now getting into the definition of WW3 I suppose but it seems to me that the first actual bullet has been fired already.

I think there is actually a chance it will be called off. A Putin fatal heart attack for example might lead to that, but with Putin in charge I think he keeps coming back for more learning from previous mistakes, getting the next stooge into the Whitehouse etc. which might doom us all.

 

[birthofanorange]

If it was a 1 in 3 chance, do you think they should go in? Of course not. But that doesn't mean they think it's more likely than not.

Those odds would suggest otherwise, to my mind, in that example.

 

[danielson81]

Some good and interesting news..

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
️ Melitopol mayor released from Russian captivity.

Ivan Fedorov was released five days after being abducted following a Ukrainian “special operation,” according to Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy chief of staff for President Zelensky. He will shortly return to his duties as mayor.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1504159692171456519?s=20&t=NWjE-uUV2cnDebpi5kANJg

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

[Tweet]1504033406971228164[/Tweet]

 

[peterward]

Vlad the impaler is losing the plot.

Putin today labelled some Russians as traitors, and then some...

Full quotes below and link to transcript here. And shivers.

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67996

The west, Putin said, is betting on the support of a 'fifth column', on "national traitors"...

"...on those who make money here, in our country, but live there, and "live" not even in the geographical sense, but in their thoughts, in their consciousness, which is enslaved."
"I don't condemn at all those who have a villa in Miami or on the French Riviera, who cannot do without foie gras, oysters, or so-called 'gender freedoms'. That is absolutely not the problem."

"But, I repeat, the problem is that many of these people are mentally there, not here, not with our people, not with Russia. This is, in their opinion - in their opinion - a sign of belonging to a higher caste, to a higher race."

"Such people are ready to sell their mother, just to be allowed to sit in the hallway of this highest caste. They want to be like it... But they... don't understand that this so-called upper caste needs them only as expendable material to cause maximum damage to our people."

"The collective West is trying to split our society by speculating on military losses, on the socio-economic consequences of sanctions, to provoke civil confrontation in Russia and, using its 'fifth column', seeks to achieve its goal... the destruction of Russia."

"But any people, and moreover the Russian people, can always distinguish the true patriots from the scum and traitors, and simply spit them out, like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouth, spit them out on the panel."

"I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge."

"The so-called collective West and its 'fifth column' are used to measuring everything and everyone by themselves. They believe that everything is sold and everything is bought, so they think that we will break down and retreat. But they do not know our history and people well."

 

[beorhthelm]

Vlad the impaler is losing the plot.

Putin today labelled some Russians as traitors, and then some...

sounds like a pop at wealthy merchant classes, possibly the oligarchs too. are you with Russia or against. rattled? funny it ties in exactly with a long thread i read suggesting the best tactic would be to offer Russian army and others a bounty to defect to the west. might have been right on target, we should do the thing he fears.

 

[Eric the meek]

Vlad the impaler is losing the plot.

Putin today labelled some Russians as traitors, and then some...

Full quotes below and link to transcript here. And shivers.

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67996

The west, Putin said, is betting on the support of a 'fifth column', on "national traitors"...

"...on those who make money here, in our country, but live there, and "live" not even in the geographical sense, but in their thoughts, in their consciousness, which is enslaved."
"I don't condemn at all those who have a villa in Miami or on the French Riviera, who cannot do without foie gras, oysters, or so-called 'gender freedoms'. That is absolutely not the problem."

"But, I repeat, the problem is that many of these people are mentally there, not here, not with our people, not with Russia. This is, in their opinion - in their opinion - a sign of belonging to a higher caste, to a higher race."

"Such people are ready to sell their mother, just to be allowed to sit in the hallway of this highest caste. They want to be like it... But they... don't understand that this so-called upper caste needs them only as expendable material to cause maximum damage to our people."

"The collective West is trying to split our society by speculating on military losses, on the socio-economic consequences of sanctions, to provoke civil confrontation in Russia and, using its 'fifth column', seeks to achieve its goal... the destruction of Russia."

"But any people, and moreover the Russian people, can always distinguish the true patriots from the scum and traitors, and simply spit them out, like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouth, spit them out on the panel."

"I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge."

"The so-called collective West and its 'fifth column' are used to measuring everything and everyone by themselves. They believe that everything is sold and everything is bought, so they think that we will break down and retreat. But they do not know our history and people well."

A few takeaways:

Yes, he has lost the plot.

I take particular note of this, the second time that the phrase 'the so-called collective West' has been used. It means he thinks the West is not 'collective' and united. So, expect attempts from him to divide us.

But I wonder if the real meat is here: 'on those who make money here, in our country, but live there.....' Who exactly is he talking about? The oligarchs? Is he looking for scapegoats? Is he hitting out at easy targets?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

A few takeaways:

Yes, he has lost the plot.

I take particular note of this, the second time that the phrase 'the so-called collective West' has been used. It means he thinks the West is not 'collective' and united. So, expect attempts from him to divide us.

But I wonder if the real meat is here: 'on those who make money here, in our country, but live there.....' Who exactly is he talking about? The oligarchs? Is he looking for scapegoats? Is he hitting out at easy targets?

That's how I took it. Maybe they've been trying to talk him down

 

[Eric the meek]

That's how I took it. Maybe they've been trying to talk him down

That 'so called collective west' comment turned up in the speech by Sergey Naryshkin. I thought it was quite illuminating at the time. But for it to appear again.....

It's clearly a sore point.

Putin is now appealing to ordinary Russians, and turning on the oligarchs. I see this as a good sign. Get the popcorn in.

 

[Triggaaar]

[Tweet]1504033406971228164[/Tweet]

Short but sweet

 

[beorhthelm]

whats occuring in Belarus?

[tweet]1504200509481173006[/tweet]


no real confirmation, theories from training exercise, false flag attack, to possible coup.

 

[Baldseagull]

Vlad the impaler is losing the plot.

Putin today labelled some Russians as traitors, and then some...

Full quotes below and link to transcript here. And shivers.

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67996

The west, Putin said, is betting on the support of a 'fifth column', on "national traitors"...

"...on those who make money here, in our country, but live there, and "live" not even in the geographical sense, but in their thoughts, in their consciousness, which is enslaved."
"I don't condemn at all those who have a villa in Miami or on the French Riviera, who cannot do without foie gras, oysters, or so-called 'gender freedoms'. That is absolutely not the problem."

"But, I repeat, the problem is that many of these people are mentally there, not here, not with our people, not with Russia. This is, in their opinion - in their opinion - a sign of belonging to a higher caste, to a higher race."

"Such people are ready to sell their mother, just to be allowed to sit in the hallway of this highest caste. They want to be like it... But they... don't understand that this so-called upper caste needs them only as expendable material to cause maximum damage to our people."

"The collective West is trying to split our society by speculating on military losses, on the socio-economic consequences of sanctions, to provoke civil confrontation in Russia and, using its 'fifth column', seeks to achieve its goal... the destruction of Russia."

"But any people, and moreover the Russian people, can always distinguish the true patriots from the scum and traitors, and simply spit them out, like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouth, spit them out on the panel."

"I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge."

"The so-called collective West and its 'fifth column' are used to measuring everything and everyone by themselves. They believe that everything is sold and everything is bought, so they think that we will break down and retreat. But they do not know our history and people well."

I don't think he has lost the plot, he is acknowledging the splitting of opinion in Russia, and suggesting that being anti war is anti Russian and a fifth column against Putin is a fifth column against Russia. Anyone with money and not willing to stay and suffer is a traitor, anyone protesting about the war is a traitor. It's a reaction to journalists quitting their jobs in state media, street protesters, people leaving the country, and oligarchs expressing negative opinions about the war in Ukraine.
It makes sense, all bollocks, but it will work on a large portion of Russians

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

whats occuring in Belarus?

[tweet]1504200509481173006[/tweet]


no real confirmation, theories from training exercise, false flag attack, to possible coup.

It's hard to find much info on this.

We can hope for a successful coup that sparks revolution in Russia but that is a lot of wishful thinking.

 

[beorhthelm]

It's hard to find much info on this.

We can hope for a successful coup that sparks revolution in Russia but that is a lot of wishful thinking.

yeah, doesnt look like anything, prob just some training. bit of wishful thinking, though if there was a good time for Belarus, Georgia, or Chechnya to kick off it would be now.

 

[usernamed]

A trench will be of no use to anyone, should WW3 start. It's quite simple, really.

I’m sorry that you seem utterly convinced that an escalation to nuclear war is inevitable should NATO intervene, but having made that point, which I personally disagree strongly with, could you perhaps leave it at that? You’re making the thread unreadable with your constant “we’re doomed” Private Fraser rhetoric, which is largely doing Putin’s work for him.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Vlad the impaler is losing the plot.

Putin today labelled some Russians as traitors, and then some...

Full quotes below and link to transcript here. And shivers.

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67996

The west, Putin said, is betting on the support of a 'fifth column', on "national traitors"...

"...on those who make money here, in our country, but live there, and "live" not even in the geographical sense, but in their thoughts, in their consciousness, which is enslaved."
"I don't condemn at all those who have a villa in Miami or on the French Riviera, who cannot do without foie gras, oysters, or so-called 'gender freedoms'. That is absolutely not the problem."

"But, I repeat, the problem is that many of these people are mentally there, not here, not with our people, not with Russia. This is, in their opinion - in their opinion - a sign of belonging to a higher caste, to a higher race."

"Such people are ready to sell their mother, just to be allowed to sit in the hallway of this highest caste. They want to be like it... But they... don't understand that this so-called upper caste needs them only as expendable material to cause maximum damage to our people."

"The collective West is trying to split our society by speculating on military losses, on the socio-economic consequences of sanctions, to provoke civil confrontation in Russia and, using its 'fifth column', seeks to achieve its goal... the destruction of Russia."

"But any people, and moreover the Russian people, can always distinguish the true patriots from the scum and traitors, and simply spit them out, like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouth, spit them out on the panel."

"I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge."

"The so-called collective West and its 'fifth column' are used to measuring everything and everyone by themselves. They believe that everything is sold and everything is bought, so they think that we will break down and retreat. But they do not know our history and people well."

I can imagine Hitler making a similarly deranged speech from his bunker in 1945. Putin is finished.