[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[GT49er]

Neither the Kremlin, nor the Pentagon, care about the number of Russian casualties.

It's about slowly disabling the Russian war machine, slowly but inexorably draining Russia of troops, resources and morale, but doing it as slowly as possible, to:

1. Give the sanctions enough time to absolutely cripple the Russian economy.
2. Mitigate the nuclear threat by never forcing Russia into a corner.
3. Showcasing to the world, and especially to Russia's neighbours they have bullied for decades, how useless their military actually are.
4. With 'no US troops on the ground' avoiding another Vietnam.

The Pentagon has got Russia exactly where it wants it. A world pariah, with no trade, no economy, no trust, no power, no credibility, no future.

.....and no Novichok.








........oh!

 

[SeagullinExile]

Neither the Kremlin, nor the Pentagon, care about the number of Russian casualties.

It's about slowly disabling the Russian war machine, slowly but inexorably draining Russia of troops, resources and morale, but doing it as slowly as possible , to:

1. Give the sanctions enough time to absolutely cripple the Russian economy.
2. Mitigate the nuclear threat by never forcing Russia into a corner.
3. Showcasing to the world, and especially to Russia's neighbours they have bullied for decades, how useless their military actually are.
4. With 'no US troops on the ground' avoiding another Vietnam.

The Pentagon has got Russia exactly where it wants it. A world pariah, with no trade, no economy, no trust, no power, no credibility, no future.

One other point... testing all the West’s weapons systems that have never been fired in anger before!

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

That’s the Ukraine estimate. US intelligence estimates between 15-20k.

It's the US estimate from a few hours ago.

 

[Eric the meek]

One other point... testing all the West’s weapons systems that have never been fired in anger before!

Indeed - Ukraine could be a beta test site, just without the reliable customer feedback.

All in all, the US has played a bit of a blinder.

 

[SeagullinExile]

It's the US estimate from a few hours ago.

Yep. A US politician apparently in a NOT so top secret meeting it seems. I don’t believe a word out of a politicians mouth tbh!

 

[SeagullinExile]

Indeed - Ukraine could be a beta test site, just without the reliable customer feedback.

All in all, the US has played a bit of a blinder.

Can you imagine the amount of orders the UK are going to get for the NLAW anti tank weapons after all this! £££££££

 

[GT49er]

Can you imagine the amount of orders the UK are going to get for the NLAW anti tank weapons after all this! £££££££

Wonder if they'll screw as much out of Ukraine as the screwed out of Britain after WWII (factoring in inflation, obvs,)

 

[SeagullinExile]

Wonder if they'll screw as much out of Ukraine as the screwed out of Britain after WWII (factoring in inflation, obvs,)

Payment from Ukraine will be in fat contracts for rebuilding the infrastructure after the war!

 

[GT49er]

Payment from Ukraine will be in fat contracts for rebuilding the infrastructure after the war!

Oh good. They're giving them the weapons then. May charge for work actually done to infrastructure after the war (if there is an 'after the war'). Right-e-ho.

 

[Eric the meek]

Can you imagine the amount of orders the UK are going to get for the NLAW anti tank weapons after all this! £££££££

There's no substitute for testing stuff in live environments is there? You could spend your whole life testing it out on Salisbury Plain, and the moment you try it out in a live environment, the Americans turn up with something a lot better that doesn't get you killed.

I am of the opinion that any country that tries to compete with the US might as well give up straight away.

It 's extraordinary that Russia tried to bluff / threaten its way to getting away with invading a sovereign country to stop it from joining NATO. It was a huge miscalculation which is already changing the world, and quite possibly may lead to the break up of Russia. I think it might even be a resigning issue for Putin.

 

[driddles]

Yep. A US politician apparently in a NOT so top secret meeting it seems. I don’t believe a word out of a politicians mouth tbh!

She was a CIA analyst and worked for the department of defense before becoming a politician. I believe she heard what she says she heard.

 

[SeagullinExile]

She was a CIA analyst and worked for the department of defense before becoming a politician. I believe she heard what she says she heard.

Hmmm. Top secret meeting then talks about it to the press eh?

Sorry. Not buying it.

 

[Goldstone1976]

It's about slowly disabling the Russian war machine, slowly but inexorably draining Russia of troops, resources and morale, but doing it as slowly as possible, to:

…
2. Mitigate the nuclear threat by never forcing Russia into a corner.
..

The Pentagon has got Russia exactly where it wants it. A world pariah, with no trade, no economy, no trust, no power, no credibility, no future.

I’m not clear how your last sentence differs from forcing Russia into a corner…

 

[Billy the Fish]

According to a US politician. The CIA still say 15k dead. Which is still more than 10 years fighting in Afghanistan tbf.

The key words in the 75k stat = "or injured".

So presumably their estimate is 15k killed and 60k injured.

 

[Eric the meek]

I’m not clear how your last sentence differs from forcing Russia into a corner…

Throughout this unmitigated disaster for Russia, Putin has always had the option to retreat. He still does.

But you can't retreat from a corner, so we can safely conclude that he's not in one.

 

[Goldstone1976]

Throughout this unmitigated disaster for Russia, Putin has always had the option to retreat. He still does.

But you can't retreat from a corner, so we can safely conclude that he's not in one.

You may think that Putin still has the option to retreat. But what you or I think is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is whether Putin thinks he has that option. I would suggest that there’s good evidence over multiple issues over the last decade that Putin doesn’t do retreat.

 

[Eric the meek]

You may think that Putin still has the option to retreat. But what you or I think is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is whether Putin thinks he has that option. I would suggest that there’s good evidence over multiple issues over the last decade that Putin doesn’t do retreat.

He retreated from Snake Island, presenting it as a 'gesture of goodwill'. He has also withdrawn some of his Black Sea fleet from Sebastopol in Crimea to a true Russian port, Novorossiysk on the eastern Black Sea.
So he absolutely does 'do retreat'. Grudgingly of course, but it does happen.

Besides, he can present retreats in any number of ways. A goodwill gesture, a humanitarian move, a recalibration of the war aims?
He's quite capable of presenting the mother of all retreats as a resounding success.

 

[Goldstone1976]

He retreated from Snake Island, presenting it as a 'gesture of goodwill'. He has also withdrawn some of his Black Sea fleet from Sebastopol in Crimea to a true Russian port, Novorossiysk on the eastern Black Sea.
So he absolutely does 'do retreat'. Grudgingly of course, but it does happen.

Besides, he can present retreats in any number of ways. A goodwill gesture, a humanitarian move, a recalibration of the war aims?
He's quite capable of presenting the mother of all retreats as a resounding success.

Mmm; yes, ok.

I think I’m rather more fearful of it all going really horribly wrong and Putin pressing the button than you are. However, I’m not at all sure what else the West could have done at a macro level.

 

[vegster]

The Ukrainians have made retreat and re-supply for Russian forces on the West Bank of the Dnipro both equally difficult. Putin can withdraw or put more troops and equipment in but it will be very difficult without the decent bridges plus....HIMARS can just wipe away pontoons and barges just like that.

I think the UAF don't actually want to slaughter the Russian forces, just grind them down slowly til they cease to be an army.

 

[Eric the meek]

Mmm; yes, ok.

I think I’m rather more fearful of it all going really horribly wrong and Putin pressing the button than you are. However, I’m not at all sure what else the West could have done at a macro level.

I take your point, and I am fearful as well. The rhetoric we've had from Russian TV (= Putinthink) has been off the scale. But I guess that's their method of diplomacy. Shout loudly and make threats.

But consider this. Putin may actually be the best option. There is a slight chance of the disintegration of the Russian state with a power vacuum in Moscow, a breakdown in command structures, and loose nukes lying around unguarded in the newly autonomous regions. But that's just future gazing which I read on Twitter.

Back to the real world, and the immediate concern is to contain the Kremlin and Putin. It seems to be going quite well so far. Russia is much, much weaker than when it began the war.