Run In - My Analysis

[Simster]

What a marvellous piece of GEEKERY this is, I'm sure you'll agree.

What I've done is grade each fixture with a difficulty level out of 12.
Matches against:
Top 3 (Swansea, Donny, Carlisle) => 9 (home match), 11 (away)
Any of the play-off rivals => 7, 9
Fighting relegation (Gills, Crewe, Chelt, Millwall, Yeovil) => 4, 6
Already Down (Bournemouth, Luton, Port Vale) => 1, 4
Mid-table but with games in hand (Bristol Rovers) => 5, 7
Mid-table obscurity => 3, 6

And here are the fixtures for the teams we give a toss about - with my ratings associated:

Northampton v Nottm Forest 9
Nottm Forest v Brighton 7
Doncaster v Nottm Forest 11
Carlisle v Nottm Forest 11
Nottm Forest v Cheltenham 4
Nottm Forest v Bristol Rovers 5
Tranmere v Nottm Forest 9
Nottm Forest v Luton 1
Hartlepool v Nottm Forest 6
Nottm Forest v Yeovil 4
Forest: Points: 59 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 6.7

Southend v Swansea 9
Swindon v Southend 6
Southend v Walsall 7
Crewe v Southend 6
Southend v Brighton 7
Southend v Northampton 7
Carlisle v Southend 11
Tranmere v Southend 9
Southend v Port Vale 1
Southend: Points: 58 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 7

Leeds v Walsall 9
Walsall v Crewe 4
Southend v Walsall 9
Walsall v Tranmere 7
Cheltenham v Walsall 6
Walsall v Bristol Rovers 5
Walsall v Bournemouth 1
Huddersfield v Walsall 6
Walsall v Hartlepool 3
Walsall: Points: 56 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 5.6

Tranmere v Port Vale 1
Bournemouth v Tranmere 4
Tranmere v Swindon 3
Walsall v Tranmere 9
Tranmere v Nottm Forest 7
Huddersfield v Tranmere 6
Tranmere v Southend 7
Northampton v Tranmere 9
Tranmere: Points: 56 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 5.8

Leyton Orient v Carlisle 9
Cheltenham v Leyton Orient 6
Port Vale v Leyton Orient 4
Leyton Orient v Leeds 7
Oldham v Leyton Orient 9
Leyton Orient v Doncaster 9
Swansea v Leyton Orient 11
Leyton Orient v Bristol Rovers 5
Orient: Points: 56 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 7.5

Huddersfield v Brighton 6
Brighton v Swindon 3
Nottm Forest v Brighton 9
Leeds v Brighton 9
Brighton v Port Vale 1
Southend v Brighton 9
Luton v Brighton 4
Brighton v Hartlepool 3
Bristol Rovers v Brighton 7
Brighton v Swansea 9
Brighton: Points: 55 Fixtures: 10 Average Difficulty: 6

Leeds v Walsall 7
Leeds v Brighton 7
Doncaster v Leeds 11
Leyton Orient v Leeds 9
Leeds v Carlisle 9
Huddersfield v Leeds 6
Millwall v Leeds 6
Yeovil v Leeds 6
Leeds v Gillingham 4
Leeds: Points: 54 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 7.2

Northampton v Nottm Forest 7
Carlisle v Northampton 11
Cheltenham v Northampton 6
Northampton v Luton 1
Southend v Northampton 9
Northampton v Oldham 7
Port Vale v Northampton 4
Northampton v Tranmere 7
Northampton: Points: 54 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 6.5

Oldham v Millwall 4
Doncaster v Oldham 11
Oldham v Huddersfield 3
Swindon v Oldham 6
Oldham v Leyton Orient 7
Northampton v Oldham 9
Oldham v Cheltenham 4
Crewe v Oldham 6
Oldham: Points: 53 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 6.3


So my conclusion:

Our run-in looks to be of average difficulty. Good news for those who thought it was all over if we lose at Forest, Leeds or Southend. Clearly, we've got other places we can pick up points.

It's a good job for Forest that they lead the play-off race. They've got a nightmare run in. Southend's is even worse.

Leeds fixture list is also very tricky - but it's loaded towards the first 4 games. If they're in the mix after those 4, the chances are that they'll get into the playoffs. Let's hope they get stuffed early doors so that morale is low and their crowds are lower than Wigans before they get a chance to get to the play-offs.

You can write off Orient's chances. Their fixture list is a nightmare and theyve left themselves too much to do.

Walsall and Tranmere have it cushy, so they're going to be the most dangerous contenders, IMO.

 

[Easy 10]

My ANALysis is that you have FAR too much time on your hands.







(but good work)

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

awesome - stat porn

 

[Simster]

My ANALysis is that you have FAR too much time on your hands.

I don't actually, but my entire team went into a meeting except me.



And pleasingly, I still have a job now that they've returned.

 

[Bars Mar]

And pleasingly, I still have a job now that they've returned.

Best You Get Back To Polishing Their Shoes Then Loser Boy.

 

[severnside gull]

geekery at its best

well impressed

 

[Cheeky Monkey]

Shiver me frickin cupcakes! The words 'life' 'get a' and 'you need to' spring to mind! (copyright Angus Deaton - Have I Got News For You)

 

[Simster]

Best You Get Back To Polishing Their Shoes Then Loser Boy.

I've done that. Just popping off to clean the bogs.

Shiver me frickin cupcakes! The words 'life' 'get one' and 'you need to' spring to mind! (copyright Angus Deaton - Have I Got News For You)

Don't forget - geekery and time wasting is perfectly acceptable when at the office computer. It's when it's your own free time that this sort of thing marks one out as a friendless twat. Erm, hopefully.

 

[Hiney]

That is quite literally MAGNIFICENT work

 

[unnameable]

You have to factor in the variables, though. If the likes of Richards (now crocked), Forster and Murray stay fit then we have every chance of going up. If Leeds allow us to keep Westlake, inconceivable now that we have become play-off rivals, then our chances of going up will increase. Being a pessimist, I always fear that all that can go horribly wrong will.

 

[Icy Gull]

Long meeting was it?

 

[Simster]

About half an hour Icy.

But what a TREAT it was for NSC that the meeting took place.

 

[n1 gull]

sod the maths/football table, i'm just enjoying nipples little quote. he sounds like a very angry young man

 

[blue'n'white]

You've forgotten to factor in the "we've already won it so we ain't really bovvered" effect v Swansea on the last day but apart from that . . . excellent.
Just hope it all works out

 

[Marc]

ALL that BRILLIANT work and you could've summed it all up in ONE word:

'Tough'

 

[Icy Gull]

Long meeting was it?

Impressive, it would take me half an hour just to look up the fixtures, lay them out and type it out...and then I'd still have to do the calculations



Any chance of the predicted results plus subsequent table next time you are left out of a meeting

 

[Barrel of Fun]

I shall bookmark this and refer to it daily. Marvellous scenes, Mr Simster.