What a marvellous piece of GEEKERY this is, I'm sure you'll agree.
What I've done is grade each fixture with a difficulty level out of 12.
Matches against:
Top 3 (Swansea, Donny, Carlisle) => 9 (home match), 11 (away)
Any of the play-off rivals => 7, 9
Fighting relegation (Gills, Crewe, Chelt, Millwall, Yeovil) => 4, 6
Already Down (Bournemouth, Luton, Port Vale) => 1, 4
Mid-table but with games in hand (Bristol Rovers) => 5, 7
Mid-table obscurity => 3, 6
And here are the fixtures for the teams we give a toss about - with my ratings associated:
Northampton v Nottm Forest 9
Nottm Forest v Brighton 7
Doncaster v Nottm Forest 11
Carlisle v Nottm Forest 11
Nottm Forest v Cheltenham 4
Nottm Forest v Bristol Rovers 5
Tranmere v Nottm Forest 9
Nottm Forest v Luton 1
Hartlepool v Nottm Forest 6
Nottm Forest v Yeovil 4
Forest: Points: 59 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 6.7
Southend v Swansea 9
Swindon v Southend 6
Southend v Walsall 7
Crewe v Southend 6
Southend v Brighton 7
Southend v Northampton 7
Carlisle v Southend 11
Tranmere v Southend 9
Southend v Port Vale 1
Southend: Points: 58 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 7
Leeds v Walsall 9
Walsall v Crewe 4
Southend v Walsall 9
Walsall v Tranmere 7
Cheltenham v Walsall 6
Walsall v Bristol Rovers 5
Walsall v Bournemouth 1
Huddersfield v Walsall 6
Walsall v Hartlepool 3
Walsall: Points: 56 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 5.6
Tranmere v Port Vale 1
Bournemouth v Tranmere 4
Tranmere v Swindon 3
Walsall v Tranmere 9
Tranmere v Nottm Forest 7
Huddersfield v Tranmere 6
Tranmere v Southend 7
Northampton v Tranmere 9
Tranmere: Points: 56 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 5.8
Leyton Orient v Carlisle 9
Cheltenham v Leyton Orient 6
Port Vale v Leyton Orient 4
Leyton Orient v Leeds 7
Oldham v Leyton Orient 9
Leyton Orient v Doncaster 9
Swansea v Leyton Orient 11
Leyton Orient v Bristol Rovers 5
Orient: Points: 56 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 7.5
Huddersfield v Brighton 6
Brighton v Swindon 3
Nottm Forest v Brighton 9
Leeds v Brighton 9
Brighton v Port Vale 1
Southend v Brighton 9
Luton v Brighton 4
Brighton v Hartlepool 3
Bristol Rovers v Brighton 7
Brighton v Swansea 9
Brighton: Points: 55 Fixtures: 10 Average Difficulty: 6
Leeds v Walsall 7
Leeds v Brighton 7
Doncaster v Leeds 11
Leyton Orient v Leeds 9
Leeds v Carlisle 9
Huddersfield v Leeds 6
Millwall v Leeds 6
Yeovil v Leeds 6
Leeds v Gillingham 4
Leeds: Points: 54 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 7.2
Northampton v Nottm Forest 7
Carlisle v Northampton 11
Cheltenham v Northampton 6
Northampton v Luton 1
Southend v Northampton 9
Northampton v Oldham 7
Port Vale v Northampton 4
Northampton v Tranmere 7
Northampton: Points: 54 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 6.5
Oldham v Millwall 4
Doncaster v Oldham 11
Oldham v Huddersfield 3
Swindon v Oldham 6
Oldham v Leyton Orient 7
Northampton v Oldham 9
Oldham v Cheltenham 4
Crewe v Oldham 6
Oldham: Points: 53 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 6.3
So my conclusion:
Our run-in looks to be of average difficulty. Good news for those who thought it was all over if we lose at Forest, Leeds or Southend. Clearly, we've got other places we can pick up points.
It's a good job for Forest that they lead the play-off race. They've got a nightmare run in. Southend's is even worse.
Leeds fixture list is also very tricky - but it's loaded towards the first 4 games. If they're in the mix after those 4, the chances are that they'll get into the playoffs. Let's hope they get stuffed early doors so that morale is low and their crowds are lower than Wigans before they get a chance to get to the play-offs.
You can write off Orient's chances. Their fixture list is a nightmare and theyve left themselves too much to do.
Walsall and Tranmere have it cushy, so they're going to be the most dangerous contenders, IMO.
What I've done is grade each fixture with a difficulty level out of 12.
Matches against:
Top 3 (Swansea, Donny, Carlisle) => 9 (home match), 11 (away)
Any of the play-off rivals => 7, 9
Fighting relegation (Gills, Crewe, Chelt, Millwall, Yeovil) => 4, 6
Already Down (Bournemouth, Luton, Port Vale) => 1, 4
Mid-table but with games in hand (Bristol Rovers) => 5, 7
Mid-table obscurity => 3, 6
And here are the fixtures for the teams we give a toss about - with my ratings associated:
Northampton v Nottm Forest 9
Nottm Forest v Brighton 7
Doncaster v Nottm Forest 11
Carlisle v Nottm Forest 11
Nottm Forest v Cheltenham 4
Nottm Forest v Bristol Rovers 5
Tranmere v Nottm Forest 9
Nottm Forest v Luton 1
Hartlepool v Nottm Forest 6
Nottm Forest v Yeovil 4
Forest: Points: 59 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 6.7
Southend v Swansea 9
Swindon v Southend 6
Southend v Walsall 7
Crewe v Southend 6
Southend v Brighton 7
Southend v Northampton 7
Carlisle v Southend 11
Tranmere v Southend 9
Southend v Port Vale 1
Southend: Points: 58 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 7
Leeds v Walsall 9
Walsall v Crewe 4
Southend v Walsall 9
Walsall v Tranmere 7
Cheltenham v Walsall 6
Walsall v Bristol Rovers 5
Walsall v Bournemouth 1
Huddersfield v Walsall 6
Walsall v Hartlepool 3
Walsall: Points: 56 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 5.6
Tranmere v Port Vale 1
Bournemouth v Tranmere 4
Tranmere v Swindon 3
Walsall v Tranmere 9
Tranmere v Nottm Forest 7
Huddersfield v Tranmere 6
Tranmere v Southend 7
Northampton v Tranmere 9
Tranmere: Points: 56 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 5.8
Leyton Orient v Carlisle 9
Cheltenham v Leyton Orient 6
Port Vale v Leyton Orient 4
Leyton Orient v Leeds 7
Oldham v Leyton Orient 9
Leyton Orient v Doncaster 9
Swansea v Leyton Orient 11
Leyton Orient v Bristol Rovers 5
Orient: Points: 56 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 7.5
Huddersfield v Brighton 6
Brighton v Swindon 3
Nottm Forest v Brighton 9
Leeds v Brighton 9
Brighton v Port Vale 1
Southend v Brighton 9
Luton v Brighton 4
Brighton v Hartlepool 3
Bristol Rovers v Brighton 7
Brighton v Swansea 9
Brighton: Points: 55 Fixtures: 10 Average Difficulty: 6
Leeds v Walsall 7
Leeds v Brighton 7
Doncaster v Leeds 11
Leyton Orient v Leeds 9
Leeds v Carlisle 9
Huddersfield v Leeds 6
Millwall v Leeds 6
Yeovil v Leeds 6
Leeds v Gillingham 4
Leeds: Points: 54 Fixtures: 9 Average Difficulty: 7.2
Northampton v Nottm Forest 7
Carlisle v Northampton 11
Cheltenham v Northampton 6
Northampton v Luton 1
Southend v Northampton 9
Northampton v Oldham 7
Port Vale v Northampton 4
Northampton v Tranmere 7
Northampton: Points: 54 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 6.5
Oldham v Millwall 4
Doncaster v Oldham 11
Oldham v Huddersfield 3
Swindon v Oldham 6
Oldham v Leyton Orient 7
Northampton v Oldham 9
Oldham v Cheltenham 4
Crewe v Oldham 6
Oldham: Points: 53 Fixtures: 8 Average Difficulty: 6.3
So my conclusion:
Our run-in looks to be of average difficulty. Good news for those who thought it was all over if we lose at Forest, Leeds or Southend. Clearly, we've got other places we can pick up points.
It's a good job for Forest that they lead the play-off race. They've got a nightmare run in. Southend's is even worse.
Leeds fixture list is also very tricky - but it's loaded towards the first 4 games. If they're in the mix after those 4, the chances are that they'll get into the playoffs. Let's hope they get stuffed early doors so that morale is low and their crowds are lower than Wigans before they get a chance to get to the play-offs.
You can write off Orient's chances. Their fixture list is a nightmare and theyve left themselves too much to do.
Walsall and Tranmere have it cushy, so they're going to be the most dangerous contenders, IMO.
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