Our luck this season......

[Bob!]

If we had scored the penalties, the entire game would be different. We may have gone on to score more, we may have grown complacent, so, it's hard to say one way or another how many points the penalty misses have cost us. If we say that everything else about the game stays the same we have lost 4 points due to penalty misses (0-0 v southampton would be 1-0 win, 2-1 loss to huddersfield would be 2-2 draw).

As for last ten minutes, if our games ended on 80mins we would have 7 points more.

dropped
2 v rochdale
2 v tranmere
2 v bournemouth
2 v Bristol
1 v Huddersfield

Gained
2 v Oldham

If we combine both penalties missed and goals conceded in the last ten minutes, we get 12 points. (If we scored the penalty v Huddersfield we'd've been 2-1 up on 80mins giving us three for that game, plus the three v southampton, plus the 8 dropped in the last ten minutes in other games, minus the two gained v oldham).

That would leave us on 48 points. 50 points if we're only discounting goals conceded in the last 10 minutes, and keeping the goals we scored in the last ten minutes.

That doesn't sound like we're lucky then, does it?

 

[Easy 10]

Some good solid analysis there by Acker.
Well played sir

 

[Ninja Elephant]

Analysis which doesn't take into the account we were lucky to be top on Christmas Day, Sheffield Wednesday losing 5-1 to Exeter is a slice of good fortune.

For a counter example.

 

[We're the Stripes]

Yup, interesting analysis. Although slightly worrying when you look at how many goals we've conceded in the last 10 minutes in comparison to goals scored.

One thing that struck me about Norwich last season was just how many late goals they scored to salvage points. Seemed to finish matches so strongly.

 

[Bean]

Luck? A real man makes his own luck.

 

[Acker79]

Just gone through my data for last five minutes (I'm a little bored) all scores in the format us v them (not home v away)

Swindon 2 v 1 would leave us 0 pts better off
Rochdale 2 v 1 would leave us 2 pts better off
Sheffield Wednesday 0 v 1 would leave us 0 pts better off
Walsall 1 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
MK Dons 2 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
Carlisle 0 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
Plymouth 2 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
Oldham 1 v 1 would leave us -2 pts better off
Brentford 1 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
Tranmere 1 v 0 would leave us 2 pts better off
Bournemouth 1 v 0 would leave us 2 pts better off
Charlton 3 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
Yeovil 2 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
Peterborough 3 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
Exeter 3 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
Hartlepool 1 v 2 would leave us 0 pts better off
Bristol Rovers 2 v 1 would leave us 2 pts better off
Southampton 0 v 0 would leave us 0 pts better off
Huddersfield 1 v 2 would leave us 0 pts better off

+8, -2

So, if games finished on 85 minutes, and we scored all our penalties:
+3 v southampton, +1 v Huddersfield, +8 for 85th min finish, (-2 for 85th min finish) = 13 (11) Leaving us on 49pts (47).

 

[Acker79]

Analysis which doesn't take into the account we were lucky to be top on Christmas Day, Sheffield Wednesday losing 5-1 to Exeter is a slice of good fortune.

For a counter example.

Why is that luck? Did Exeter trip the ball into the net five times, and keep slipping over blocking Wednesday's shots?

 

[Ninja Elephant]

Why is that luck? Did Exeter trip the ball into the net five times, and keep slipping over blocking Wednesday's shots?

That's not the point. We were lucky not to be over taken for Christmas Day. We're lucky that they didn't take the opportunity to go top. I don't think we've been lucky to win the games we have, but I think we've been lucky with circumstances.

 

[Easy 10]

Analysis which doesn't take into the account we were lucky to be top on Christmas Day, Sheffield Wednesday losing 5-1 to Exeter is a slice of good fortune.

For a counter example.

We beat Exeter.
Sheffield Wednesday got beat by Exeter.

I've not bothered looking at Wednesdays other results, but the indications would seem to point towards the FACT that we have accumulated 3 more points, from playing 2 less games, than they have managed.

Can you just explain where the LUCK comes in there ?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

That's not the point. We were lucky not to be over taken for Christmas Day. We're lucky that they didn't take the opportunity to go top. I don't think we've been lucky to win the games we have, but I think we've been lucky with circumstances.

Exeter have one of the best home records in the division. We have to face that next week and may well lose that game but we also have the best defence in the league. Wednesday don't. That's not luck. What has gone our way is timing. It is a significant thing to be top at Christmas so the timing has been 'lucky' if you like.

 

[Acker79]

That's not the point. We were lucky not to be over taken for Christmas Day. We're lucky that they didn't take the opportunity to go top. I don't think we've been lucky to win the games we have, but I think we've been lucky with circumstances.

How was it our luck? One team beat another. Deservedly so. It was a good result for us, but that doesn't make it lucky.

 

[Ninja Elephant]

Maybe I've gone off on a tangent, but I think we're lucky still to be top, having not played for a while and not won for what seems like a long time in the league, and our closest rivals losing suprisingly, consistently. If you thought Sheffield Wednesday would lose at Exeter, and that Huddersfield would lose at home to Hartlepool, then you're better at predicting outcomes than I am. I expected neither result. I'm not saying Exeter are a bad side at home, or that Hartlepool aren't a good team in general, but I'm saying we were lucky for both results to go in our favour.

 

[Easy 10]

I didn't expect us to lose at Hartlepool or draw with Bristol Rovers.

Thats football. The table doesn't lie after 20-odd games though. Luck doesn't come into it.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

If you can be bothered to search I said that Wednesday wouldn't win at Exeter before that particular game based on Exeter's home performances.
As it stands any team can beat any team in this division and nothing is a foregone conclusion. Look at the minimal number of points between the relegation zone and the playoffs. We won a lot of games and gave ourselves a good cushion for eventualities such as postponements and wobbles. Hopefully we can contininue. Who was it said, the more I practise and work hard the luckier I get?

 

[Foolg]

Maybe I've gone off on a tangent, but I think we're lucky still to be top, having not played for a while and not won for what seems like a long time in the league, and our closest rivals losing suprisingly, consistently. If you thought Sheffield Wednesday would lose at Exeter, and that Huddersfield would lose at home to Hartlepool, then you're better at predicting outcomes than I am. I expected neither result. I'm not saying Exeter are a bad side at home, or that Hartlepool aren't a good team in general, but I'm saying we were lucky for both results to go in our favour.

I struggle to see how thats lucky?
The lesser teams have proved they can beat anyone, but we've taken more points of these sides than the other teams around us. Thats not luck, thats us being better, and more consistent. Other teams losing isn't luck, its them not being consistent.

 

[Acker79]

Maybe I've gone off on a tangent, but I think we're lucky still to be top, having not played for a while and not won for what seems like a long time in the league, and our closest rivals losing suprisingly, consistently. If you thought Sheffield Wednesday would lose at Exeter, and that Huddersfield would lose at home to Hartlepool, then you're better at predicting outcomes than I am. I expected neither result. I'm not saying Exeter are a bad side at home, or that Hartlepool aren't a good team in general, but I'm saying we were lucky for both results to go in our favour.

Not being predictable doesn't mean it was lucky. I'm not saying I expected Wednesday to lose or Charlton to lose (though I do remember pointing out it wasn't a foregone conclusion they would win), but whether I saw the results coming or not is irrelevant. The results of those matches were earned by those that played, walsall earned their win, exeter earned their win, hartlepool earned their win. Were they predictable? Perhaps not. Were they good results for us? Absolutely. Were they lucky? No.

If you can be bothered to search I said that Wednesday wouldn't win at Exeter before that particular game based on Exeter's home performances.

A lot of people suggested the most likely outcome was a draw, due to exeter's home form.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

A lot of people suggested the most likely outcome was a draw, due to exeter's home form.

I found my post
Bollocks, we could be 2nd on xmas day.

 

[Acker79]

Found mine:
to all the negative n u t s on here tonight

 

[Sheebo]

I think the opposite - in games we've played we've been very unlucky. Shite reffing decisions have cost us - namely BMuff and Rochdale. Also some red cards and missed pens which may not be so unlucky but maybe mis-fortunate...

 

[Lady Whistledown]

I think what we can safely conclude about the arguments going on above, is that luck evens itself out in the end.

We've had good fortune at times, and bad luck at others. After forty six games, we won't be able to complain that misfortune has haunted us, only bad (or good) play.