portlock seagull
Well-known member
- Jul 28, 2003
- 17,618
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[Albion] Officially not getting relegated.
- Thread starter Official Old Man
- Start date
Taybha
Whalewhine
Not Andy Naylor
Well-known member
Some stats from the Premier League website just after we lost at home to Cardiff last season (we ended up with 35 points but with our superior goal difference, 34 would have been enough to have finished above Cardiff):
Over the past 23 seasons (since the league was cut to 20 clubs in 1995/96), the 18th-placed team, the highest to go down, have averaged 35.6 points.
So, 36 points would have been enough to stay up on at least 11 occasions, as Southampton did in 2017/18.
Teams with 37 points would have retained their Premier League status in 16 of the past 23 seasons.
Lowest tally: West Bromwich Albion's 34 points in 2004/05 make them the team with the lowest total to remain in the Premier League.
That tally could be enough this season. Brighton & Hove Albion are currently on 33 points, two clear of third-from-bottom Cardiff City, whom they were defeated by on Tuesday night.
Exception to the rule the mythical 40-point barrier was not enough for West Ham United in 2002/03. The Hammers went down despite accruing 42 points, the highest for a relegated side.
Only two other teams have finished in the bottom three with 40 points: Sunderland, in 1996/97, and Bolton Wanderers the following season.
Over the past 23 seasons (since the league was cut to 20 clubs in 1995/96), the 18th-placed team, the highest to go down, have averaged 35.6 points.
So, 36 points would have been enough to stay up on at least 11 occasions, as Southampton did in 2017/18.
Teams with 37 points would have retained their Premier League status in 16 of the past 23 seasons.
Lowest tally: West Bromwich Albion's 34 points in 2004/05 make them the team with the lowest total to remain in the Premier League.
That tally could be enough this season. Brighton & Hove Albion are currently on 33 points, two clear of third-from-bottom Cardiff City, whom they were defeated by on Tuesday night.
Exception to the rule the mythical 40-point barrier was not enough for West Ham United in 2002/03. The Hammers went down despite accruing 42 points, the highest for a relegated side.
Only two other teams have finished in the bottom three with 40 points: Sunderland, in 1996/97, and Bolton Wanderers the following season.
When you have Liverpool and Man City hoovering up points, as they have done for the past couple of seasons, there are logically fewer points for the rest to get. We all have the opportunity to get 12 points from the top 2, but in reality few get anything at all (a couple of freak results from Watford and Norwich excepted). So the "stay up" total is almost certainly lower than average for this season (as it was last). Perhaps someone with time on their hands can run some numbers on this... 
When you have Liverpool and Man City hoovering up points, as they have done for the past couple of seasons, there are logically fewer points for the rest to get. We all have the opportunity to get 12 points from the top 2, but in reality few get anything at all (a couple of freak results from Watford and Norwich excepted). So the "stay up" total is almost certainly lower than average for this season (as it was last). Perhaps someone with time on their hands can run some numbers on this...
We're DOOMED! McGhee OUT!!!
Eddiespearritt
Well-known member
My negativity: we've won ONE game in 2020 - and throughout most of that match (Arsenal H) we didn't look competent at all. Only after going behind did we put on a 2nd striker and start having a go (bit like the Hughton tactics). We won it with a moment of brilliance in extra-time added to extra-time. We are perfectly capable of losing every match from here on in.
I don't think we'll get relegated because it turns out everyone else is more abject and nervous than we are. But I'll still put a fiver on the 40-1 to be relegated just as my insurance policy.
Bottom six still to play each other: Norwich v Brighton, Watford v Norwich, Norwich v West Ham, West Ham v Watford, West Ham v Aston Villa
I don't think we'll get relegated because it turns out everyone else is more abject and nervous than we are. But I'll still put a fiver on the 40-1 to be relegated just as my insurance policy.
Bottom six still to play each other: Norwich v Brighton, Watford v Norwich, Norwich v West Ham, West Ham v Watford, West Ham v Aston Villa
At least she stayed up.
grubbyhands
Well-known member
There is,in my opinion, absolutely no way Potter will put up with any of this shit.His recent record of dealing with disciplinary issues (Knockaert,Andone) shows that if you stray,you're out.Billy Reid might look like some sort of Glaswegian enforcer but I reckon it's Potter who deals with it. Once you've let him down,you're out.Simple as that,no second chances. The players will know that,respect that and abide by it I reckon
Nobody is saying we are safe. Most of us do think though, from the position we are now in, we probably will be safe.
I dare say supporters of West Ham, Bournemouth and Villa would much rather be in our position!
Eh? YOU were telling off someone on here for counting their chickens just before the Watford result, FFS.
Justice
Dangerous Idiot
Except the others can’t win for shit. 20/1 from the bookies to drop says it all.
madinthehead
I have changed this
40/1 at Betfair/ bet365
Try another perspective if it helps - we've lost 2 out of the 12 league games we've played since December 28th, and we lost them both 1-0. I don't think that shows a capability to lose 7 in a row...................
Yes, it's funny how the media never picked that up - 'Brighton, the only side not to have won in 2020' was the mantra, completely blind to the fact that we were still 15th, not bottom, and lost quite a lot fewer matches than several other teams.
Okay here is a nice little graphic fro Elo Ratings, with expected end of season outcomes.
We can't influence the results of any of the bottom five bar Norwich. Assume the model is accurate except we gain no further points this season (highly unlikely). We would pip both Villa and Bournemouth with our better goal difference.
Serious questions would be asked of the manager, players and board, but we would live to fight another day all be it one without finger nails! We will find out in a few weeks time whether 33 points was indeed enough. Historically it is very much at the low end as @notandynaylor has already pointed out, but certainly not out of the question.
I understand why people are saying we NEED more points, but it is much more an emotional need (and an expectation of what this team are capable of deliverying), than a statistical necessity.
We can't influence the results of any of the bottom five bar Norwich. Assume the model is accurate except we gain no further points this season (highly unlikely). We would pip both Villa and Bournemouth with our better goal difference.
Serious questions would be asked of the manager, players and board, but we would live to fight another day all be it one without finger nails! We will find out in a few weeks time whether 33 points was indeed enough. Historically it is very much at the low end as @notandynaylor has already pointed out, but certainly not out of the question.
I understand why people are saying we NEED more points, but it is much more an emotional need (and an expectation of what this team are capable of deliverying), than a statistical necessity.
blue-shifted
Banned
Go on, i'll say it. I think we are safe. Marshy thinks I'm an idiot. Maybe I am.
What I mean by "we are safe" is that I don't think 3 of the teams below is will get to 33 points. (I've also factored in that if we lose our remaining games and our competitors don't our GD could get overhauled.
It would be a bit hairy mind. Better for the nerves if we could, you know, not lose our remaining 8 games.
I think it will be something like
Brighton 41
West Ham 36
Watford 34
Bournemouth 32
Villa 31
Norwich 28
No radical departure from current PPG there.
Behind Enemy Lines
Well-known member
We are not safe yet and dangerously complacent to be already talking about mid-table mediocrity. Reminds me of the “ we’re in the play off final “ boasts before then losing to Palace. Yes, it’s looking encouraging but you’d be wise to refrain from over confidence. This is the Albion we’re talking about.
Another idiot here. The teams below us have, so far on restart, contrived to REDUCE their PPG - to get the points they need to overtake us they'll all need enormous changes in form. From the matches I've seen none of them look capable of that, let alone 3 of them.
If - and I regard it as a big if - we do lose all of our next seven matches, our goal difference may not be much different from Villa's or B'muff's, especially as to get to 33 points they will have needed to improved their GD.