Odds on Albion getting promoted to The Premiership 2012/2013

[Bob!]

No bookies are offering a price at the moment (we've tried!), but when they do what do you you think? Perhaps we 'd better get promoted first but worth a discussion surely.

After scouring the bookies I was offered 10/1 at Corals after the Peterborough away game.

I was expecting at least 100/1.

 

[8ace]

Any price quoted now on us gaining promotion from the Championship next season will be skinny as the make-up of the division is not yet known, therefore the bookies will err on the side of caution. By betting now you'd effectively be betting on a double of promotion this season (best price 2/5) and promotion next season (at the skinny price).
I'm not convinced that this will be bigger than the single in the close season (if we get promoted of course).

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

Hans Kray isn't far off the mark here .
We're currently best priced 2/5 to get promoted this season .
The following season , with 3 spots from 24 , that equates to a 7/1 chance for an average team in The Championship
The cumalative odds for consecutive promotions therefore would be just over 10/1 .
Ranking us in the bottom 1/4 of The Championship would extrapolate odds of around 15/1 for promotion , generating a price of just over 22/1 .

The median of these 2 fairly conservative examples leaves us with odds of just under 14/1 .
9.1% (10/1) + 4.35% (22/1) = 13.45% ÷ 2 = 6.72% = 14/1

 

[Simster]

Good point. So 33/1 would represent a more suitable price for us to WIN this division and then finish in the top two next season?

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

Working on the same basis but pricing us winning League 1 at Evens
followed by promotion the following year equates to just over 20/1
A top 2 finish in The Championship would be very close to your estimate , approx 31/1 .

 

[Bwian]

If we don't go up this year we're goin to look right pillocks going on about the bloody premiership in every other thread.

Let's get promoted first eh..

No wonder other fans think we're getting arrogant.

 

[burrish-gull]

No wonder other fans think we're getting arrogant.

Not arrogant in the slightest if you take into consideration those clubs with new grounds that have got to the Premiership quickly I.e Hull and Reading. I think its a fair bet myself, even more so when you consider that we have zero debt to any outside investor and a much bigger potential than either of those clubs

 

[hans kraay fan club]

No wonder other fans think we're getting arrogant.

How is it arrogant to state that I feel that IF we start next season in the Championship, then we have a better than ONE IN SIXTEEN chance of promotion?

 

[simmo]

It is arrogant, because we are not even out of League 1 yet and we still have 19 games to go. There is still so much football to be played this season and it is that what we should have a focus on and not looking too far ahead, talk about one game at a time this isn't even one season at a time.

Also next season is 2011/12 not 2012/13 unless the original poster intended it to be the season after next that we went up and not next season.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Do you understand the word 'IF'?

 

[simmo]

Do you understand the word 'IF'?

Do you understand the meaning that a header of odds on Albion getting promoted to the Premiership 2012/2013 looks arrogant. That is all I am saying. Especially when you are just about half way (60%ish) through a League 1 campaign.

People on this board trawl other sites and get upset when people on differnet boards think we might choke it or that Nigel Adkins is arrogant because he dared to suggest that the team that he manages will be at the top end of the table and Brighton might not be. How cocksure of ourselves do we look when their is a message about going up to the Prem. You know if we were 5 games from the end with a 12 points lead then by all means I think it wouldn't look arrogant but I feel that if other people from other teams saw that (Huddersfield/Southampton/Bournemouth etc) I get the feeling that they might think that was just a tad (actually very) arrogant. I think it is odd to put this on the board, if the bloke wants to know the odds why doesn't he ask a bookies, that's what most people do! If he wants a second opinion go to 2 bookies.

I undertand it is a board and people may not give two hoots about what other teams and people think, but if I didn't support BHA and was one of those whom opposed us and we didn't get promoted I would bounce this thread with a big ha,ha,ha,ha,ha.

Don't get me wrong I want and hope for it to happen, but I am derfinitely not counting my chickens yet about this season, one step at a time. I am off now have a nice evening.

 

[kevtherev]

Surely you mean season 2011/12?

 

[Flavor Flav]

You ALL sound like LEEDS UNTIED fans.

 

[Paxton Dazo]

When we won L2 under Adams, I backed us the next week, to WIN L1 @ 20/1. Mates reckoned I was chucking my cash away.

You are talking about odds just to go up, not to win the league. 3 places from 24. Club on the up. Bloom's ambition. Gus' skill. WHat's not to back?

Instant promotion means the bet would lose though, wouldn't it?

2012/2013 isn't next season, it's the one after.

 

[Bert365]

I was offered 14/1 on brighton winning the league thus year and finish in the top 6on the championship next season.ladbrokes it was