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Nick Clegg which way will he go?
- Thread starter Harty
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #3
Votes or seats?
Feb 1974 the Tories polled more than Labour but had less MP's.
Jeremy Thorpe met Ted Heath at No 10 but couldn't do a deal.
withdeanwombat
Well-known member
They'd be stuffed either way,having to show their true colours at last,driving the supporters of the rejected party back into the fold and making the next election a genuine two horse race.
Back to the taxi for the Liberals.
Back to the taxi for the Liberals.
Prettyboyshaw
Well-known member
Useless joke party anyway. Shouldn't really be able to have any MP as they just float around making no difference and claims millions in wages and expenses.
The Large One
Who's Next?
Seats.
Depends on the deal he can cut, and the extent to which the leading party is short of the overall majority. Norman Baker for Transport Minister or Environment Secretary, anyone?
Dull fact: the highest ever popular vote total for one party in a UK General Election was for the Conservatives in 1992. And they ended up with a majority of just 20. By the time the 1997 election came around, it was technically a hung parliament.
Hatterlovesbrighton
something clever
They've always shown more signs of going left than right.
severnside gull
Well-known member
Brown has to cede government and that is not automatic even if his party is in a minority so he has the right to try to form an alliance if that makes for potential practical government. It is THE interesting question whether the Lib Dems (and the various Nationalists etc) would prefer to work with Labour in such a situation or go wth the Tory new boys - I have no idea but it might be fun.
I really hope it happens and that Labour stay in by having to work closely and effectively (ie sharing and exchanging policies) wth other parties. It would certainly result in a new and more representative electoral system favouring minority parties in future and might lead to interesting changes in our links to europe.
As for the nationalists - it might force the jocks and the taffs to decide whether they want in or out of our parliament. If they want to make their own decisions then fine. Let them pay for them and keep their noses out of our business and they will be ghost nations with ghost economies within a decade.
The one thing that it won't do unfortunately is breed honest or less corrupt politicians......the "opportunites" that go with power are just too compelling.
I really hope it happens and that Labour stay in by having to work closely and effectively (ie sharing and exchanging policies) wth other parties. It would certainly result in a new and more representative electoral system favouring minority parties in future and might lead to interesting changes in our links to europe.
As for the nationalists - it might force the jocks and the taffs to decide whether they want in or out of our parliament. If they want to make their own decisions then fine. Let them pay for them and keep their noses out of our business and they will be ghost nations with ghost economies within a decade.
The one thing that it won't do unfortunately is breed honest or less corrupt politicians......the "opportunites" that go with power are just too compelling.
The Large One
Who's Next?
I can't see the Scottish Nationalists (nor the Welsh for that matter) going for a deal with either main party in Westminster, along the principle that it will bring Scotland and the rest of the UK closer together politically - something that they are fundamentally opposed to.
Of course, whether there should be any SNP MPs in Westminster is another argument entirely.
Of course, whether there should be any SNP MPs in Westminster is another argument entirely.
Hatterlovesbrighton
something clever
Brown has to cede government and that is not automatic even if his party is in a minority so he has the right to try to form an alliance if that makes for potential practical government. It is THE interesting question whether the Lib Dems (and the various Nationalists etc) would prefer to work with Labour in such a situation or go wth the Tory new boys - I have no idea but it might be fun.
I really hope it happens and that Labour stay in by having to work closely and effectively (ie sharing and exchanging policies) wth other parties. It would certainly result in a new and more representative electoral system favouring minority parties in future and might lead to interesting changes in our links to europe.
As for the nationalists - it might force the jocks and the taffs to decide whether they want in or out of our parliament. If they want to make their own decisions then fine. Let them pay for them and keep their noses out of our business and they will be ghost nations with ghost economies within a decade.
The one thing that it won't do unfortunately is breed honest or less corrupt politicians......the "opportunites" that go with power are just too compelling.
I'm not sure what chance there is of Labour working with the SNP. They hate each other with a passion north of the border.
It will be interesting. Going by YouGov's latestest poll (Tories 36%, Labour 34%, Lib Dem 17%), the projected seat numbers would be as follows:
Conservatives - 260
Labours - 316
Lib Dems - 43
Others - 31
This would leave labour 10 seats short of a majority.
Of course, there are 6 weeks until the probable polling day, so enough time for the Conservatives to claw back some of their ayling lead in the polls - A 3% swing to the Conservatives should see them take more seats than Labour.
Conservatives - 260
Labours - 316
Lib Dems - 43
Others - 31
This would leave labour 10 seats short of a majority.
Of course, there are 6 weeks until the probable polling day, so enough time for the Conservatives to claw back some of their ayling lead in the polls - A 3% swing to the Conservatives should see them take more seats than Labour.
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Hatterlovesbrighton
something clever
The YouGov polls have an interesting methodology. Because they don't have enough "Labour" voters* in their panel, they have to weight their sample heavily.
The unweighted sample was Tory 42% and Labour 28%
* They, and most other pollsters, use this to get a balanced sample. They use things like past voting pref and the papers they take etc
Fair enough, I usually look at the Ipsos Mori poll, for no other reason than I have been involoved in one of their projects before. However, YouGov was the first results I found. Interestingly, if you change the results by less than a few % you can get Labour and the Tories both with an identical number of projected seats... now that would be fun!
[edit]
From an average of the latest polls (Tories 37% Labour 31%, Lib Dem 18%).
Toires - 286 seats
Labour - 285 seats
Lib Dem - 48 seats
Others - 31 seats.
Interesting...
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Lincoln Imp
Well-known member
- Feb 2, 2009
- 5,964
Whatever the policy calculations the LibDems couldn't possibly risk being perceived as "propping up a worn-out party that had been rejected by the electorate". In the inevitable second election in a few months' time the Tories would finish the job - as Labour did in 1974 - and the LibDems would be back in phone box formation. But if Clegg supported the Tories on an issue-by-issue basis, with Vince sweeping in and out of Number 11 every other day, they would be seen as Moderating Agents of Change when Election Number 2 came round. It's a no-brainer for Clegg whatever his hairy-toed activists might think.
Kumquat
New member
- Mar 2, 2009
- 4,459
One decent piece of advice i've had is that the polls actual figures are close to useless especially in a close contest like this (see 1992). But the best thing to do is pick one polling company and follow it because they all poll differently from each other, but each individual one polls the same each time it does it. Therefore by sticking with one you are likely to get the correct trend at least. Anyone who did that in 1992 said Labour would win against the odds and they were right.
And it seems now that they were both closet shirt-lifters, or worse possibly in Heath's case...
Brilliant. Could you please contact Nick Clegg's office...before he puts his foot in it? Or hairy toe...
Foreign Secretary and we'd be at war with China...
Interesting that the owner of a Chinese takeaway in Willingdon, a former LD who was thrown out of the Party, apparently for nepotism about 5 years ago, has put himself up as an Independent in Eastbourne constituency, where the LD's have a solid chance of unseating Nigel Waterson.
He seems to have funding from outside sources, and has often been to Chinese government functions recently, I believe...