Marginal Seats

[Harty]

Watched an election prog on ITV earlier and they were going on about marginal seats.

Is it really possible that the Greens can win Brighton pavilion?

And are there enough right wing, bigoted people in Barking to return a BNP MP?

 

[Lord Bracknell]

The Greens got 31.4 per cent of the Euro vote in Brighton & Hove. The Tories were a poor second at 22.1 per cent. Labour got 14.5 per cent.

The Greens have nine councillors in Brighton Pavilion constituency. The Tories have six. Labour five.

An ICM poll gave the Greens 35 per cent of the Pavilion vote. Tories second with 27 per cent. Labour 25 per cent.

The bookies make the Greens favourite to win.

And the candidate is Caroline Lucas, that woman on the telly.

What's going to stop her?

 

[BensGrandad]

At one time all Brighton was a safe Tory seat how things have changed since the building of Sussex Uni and the influx of students.

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

Wonder what chance there is of Sussex being Labour MP free after the election

 

[clapham_gull]

At one time all Brighton was a safe Tory seat how things have changed since the building of Sussex Uni and the influx of students.

You are suggesting that the failure of the Tories in Brighton is down to the students ?

I'd imagine most are registered to vote in the home constituency.

 

[O Lads]

The greens? My dear God.

 

[Goldstone Rapper]

C'mon the Greens!

 

[BensGrandad]

You are suggesting that the failure of the Tories in Brighton is down to the students ?

I'd imagine most are registered to vote in the home constituency.

Is it just coincidence or are most of them registered to vote in Brighton as they spend more time in digs in Brighton than probably in their home constituency.

What other explanantion can be given for Brighton having the only Labour MP in Sussex.

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

At one time all Brighton was a safe Tory seat how things have changed since the building of Sussex Uni and the influx of students.

More down to the move in of trendies from London and elsewhere, and possibly the growth in the gay vote. At one time, the Tories used to hold most of the inner wards as far as I know as well as the suburban ones (particularly Regency, the city centre ward). When I looked at the census data for Brighton (sad I know, but I think it was as part of a work project, can't remember), it showed that something like 65% of the population of Regency was single - not a Conservative voting indicator. What is frustrating is that it is very hard to find old Brighton Council election results (pre-B and H), to find out when the vote began to swing in particular wards. I think 1988 was a year with a big swing. Does Ed know if old council election results are held on the archive on the website? I couldn't find them anywhere.

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

What other explanantion can be given for Brighton having the only Labour MP in Sussex.

Crawley. Almost certain to go Tory this time. Hastings and Rye as well. Not certain about that. A mate who lives there tells me the Tory council is not especially popular. That might affect the result there.

 

[Goldstone Rapper]

Aren't students usually registered in both their place of study and where they're from? I know I was when I was a student and could potentially vote twice.

 

[BensGrandad]

More down to the move in of trendies from London and elsewhere, and possibly the growth in the gay vote. .

I mistakenly grouped them as 'students' ;

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

Aren't students usually registered in both their place of study and where they're from? I know I was when I was a student and could potentially vote twice.

Up to the student to register. I tried to register to vote in Aylesbury Vale in 1999 when I was at Buckingham. This was before rolling registration was brought in. I wasn't able to register and had to do a postal vote in Wealden.

 

[The Auditor]

What other explanantion can be given for Brighton having the only Labour MP in Sussex.

What about Hastings ..current a labour MP ..although a boundary change will probably ensure a change even without a swing to the Tories

 

[BensGrandad]

What about Hastings ..current a labour MP ..although a boundary change will probably ensure a change even without a swing to the Tories

Sorry didnt realise that but again similar type circumstances, high unemployment I think with a great influx of residents from the north.

That is my summing up rightly or wrong.

 

[The Large One]

Sussex has had, for the past 13 years FIVE constituencies with Labour MPs. Obviously won't be the case in a month's time. But it's good to see your finger is on the pulse, as ever.

Incidentally, Brian, are you not familiar with the concept of people changing their minds when it comes to voting? To credit/blame the student population with changing the MP's political rosette, and only thinking of one reason why is a bit, well, thoughtless.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Is it just coincidence or are most of them registered to vote in Brighton as they spend more time in digs in Brighton than probably in their home constituency.

What other explanantion can be given for Brighton having the only Labour MP in Sussex.

For some reason, the story that Brighton students vote Labour has been around for years. But it is a complete myth.

Labour won their first ever Sussex seat (Brighton Kemptown) in 1964, with a majority of 7. They held the seat in 1966. Most students didn't have a vote in either of those elections. Then the voting age was reduced to 18 and, in 1970, the Tories won the seat. Student numbers grew massively over the next 25 years, but the Tories managed to hold on to Brighton Kemptown until 1997.

 

[Goldstone Rapper]

I mistakenly groped them as 'students' ;

 

[Barrel of Fun]

The greens? My dear God.

What is wrong with the Green Party?

 

[clapham_gull]

Sorry didnt realise that but again similar type circumstances, high unemployment I think with a great influx of residents from the north.

That is my summing up rightly or wrong.

Dear oh dear, yes it's quite obviously the northerners in Hastings keeping labour in.