Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[CHAPPERS]

PHE seems an utter waste of space, thousands of people spending billions on what exactly?

Yeah **** em off!

 

[CHAPPERS]

A patient who has tested positive, but successfully treated and discharged from hospital, will still be counted as a Covid death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later,” added professors Loke and Heneghan.

I want to know how many people that were in hospital getting treated for Corona have now been run over by a bus in the 3/4 months since. Or how many heart attack victims there have been that are not linked to their corona infection.


In 2018 1770 people died in road traffic accidents (thanks google). So in the 4 months corona has been around, when there's been less people on the road, how many people that had been in hospital are likely to have been killed in a ****ing accident.


Irresponsible wording IMO.

 

[CHAPPERS]

[tweet]1284071494939746305[/tweet]

 

[highflyer]

I wondered exactly the same it seems to be a line that's trotted out with little or nothing to back it up. Especially as we also hear that the r number is less useful as numbers drop

Yup.
This is not the good news thread, so I can say that the coronavrus symptom tracker has been showing a slow but steady rise in infection numbers and rates since 4th July, with R rates in almost every region above 1 now (1.1 - 1.5). From a low base, so not at a level to worry about yet, and R rates aren't such a big deal at these levels, as they could still relate to very localised outbreaks. But if it continues you wonder what will need to be done, or if it will even be acknowledged? These are symptomatic cases, extrapolated from self-reporting (and a programme of testing to confirm) so it's not just a case of more testing or a case of asymptomatic cases showing as testing expands. This isn't actually too far off the trend showed in the daily cases from the government. This has been a bit flatter, but certainly doesn't show any kind of drop in the last week or so.

Hope the people that matter are planning a response if needed. Indeed the announcements on masks could be related.

And hope that they don't become blasé on the basis of possible good new on a vaccine - that is still far from certain and we need to be ready to live with this for quite a while if needed.

I also hope they don't try swallow the very stupid idea that there is a 'trade-off' between managing public health and managing the economy. If infections rise, public confidence drops and the economy is screwed. People will (understandably) not re-engage in economic activity if they are worried about catching or spreading the virus, no matter how many meal deals at Nando's they wheel out, or edicts about returning to school they issue. Also people (younger people especially, who may not be so worried from a health perspective) are also not going to re-engage in economic activity if they are feeling financially insecure, so there are interventions needed in that respect as well, but not holding my breath.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I want to know how many people that were in hospital getting treated for Corona have now been run over by a bus in the 3/4 months since. Or how many heart attack victims there have been that are not linked to their corona infection.


In 2018 1770 people died in road traffic accidents (thanks google). So in the 4 months corona has been around, when there's been less people on the road, how many people that had been in hospital are likely to have been killed in a ****ing accident.


Irresponsible wording IMO.

The Government can, and has, changed the way Covid deaths have been counted a number of times throughout this pandemic (together with many other Governments around the world). That is why Total Excess Deaths is such an important clear indicator of how a Government has actually handled the crisis, regardless of how they manage their statistics. It cannot be changed.

However they decide to count other statistics the total deaths remains at >65,000

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I want to know how many people that were in hospital getting treated for Corona have now been run over by a bus in the 3/4 months since. Or how many heart attack victims there have been that are not linked to their corona infection.


In 2018 1770 people died in road traffic accidents (thanks google). So in the 4 months corona has been around, when there's been less people on the road, how many people that had been in hospital are likely to have been killed in a ****ing accident.


Irresponsible wording IMO.

It was good wording. It demonstrated absurdity in order to make a point. I am sure you are quite right in that few people who have recovered from Covid have since been run over, but the ridiculous way of counting everyone who has had the disease whether they have died from it or not, will have added very many people to the count.

 

[CHAPPERS]

It was good wording. It demonstrated absurdity in order to make a point. I am sure you are quite right in that few people who have recovered from Covid have since been run over, but the ridiculous way of counting everyone who has had the disease whether they have died from it or not, will have added very many people to the count.

On the other wide of the argument as to the true number is this

Prof Sheila Bird, from the University of Cambridge MRC biostatistics unit has said the daily coronavirus death toll compiled by Public Health England undercounts the true numbers, despite new concerns about exaggerated figures.

For England and Wales, authoritative figures on Covid-mention deaths (bar those referred to coroners and not yet registered) are reported weekly by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Tuesday’s report accounted for 50,548 Covid-mention deaths registered by 3 July 2020 with ONS for England and Wales.

By comparison, the daily cumulative count of confirmed Covid deaths is something of an undercount. I think it important that in reporting on Covid-19 deaths, journalists set the daily count against the larger backdrop of the latest ONS count along with the cumulative count of excess deaths from early March (also from ONS). Few news reports report all three – perhaps because the ONS’s counts are released only weekly. However, they give a more complete picture on a weekly basis than does the daily reporting of a subset of Covid-mention deaths. The daily tallies are themselves subject to reporting delay.

Public Health England may, in effect, be following up a national virtual cohort, namely: England’s cohort of persons who ever tested positive for Sars-CoV-2. Follow-up for all-cause and cause-specific mortality in distinct epochs of time after swab-date is prudent. Indeed, this type of record-linkage study for the short- and longer-term fatal effects of Covid-19 disease has considerable merit in its own right.

The problem comes if PHE does not make clear whether the deaths they report are Covid-mention on death certification; and in which epoch of follow-up (first 4-weeks, next 8-weeks, weeks 12-26 after swab-date) the death occurred.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

America's testing gets better and better - detecting so many new cases. Trumpy must be very proud.

 

[FloatLeft]

America's testing gets better and better - detecting so many new cases. Trumpy must be very proud.

View attachment 126203

Is there a graph that compares positive results to deaths. It would be terrifying if the death rate mirrors the infection rate ?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Is there a graph that compares positive results to deaths. It would be terrifying if the death rate mirrors the infection rate ?

Not on this site but others may have access to data...

 

[Yoda]

Have Sweden hit (or about to hit) heard immunity?

 

[Billy the Fish]

Is there a graph that compares positive results to deaths. It would be terrifying if the death rate mirrors the infection rate ?

I saw one yesterday in a guardian article. Worryingly it looked like deaths were just beginning to go up, which fits in with the 2-3 week lag between infections and deaths

 

[Billy the Fish]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-secures-early-access-to-90-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses-12032251

Another vaccine deal signed.

I can't find the posts but some of our resident EU fanatics were claiming HMG were"killing people" by not joining the EU vaccine group.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Have Sweden hit (or about to hit) heard immunity?
View attachment 126224

Population of 10m, herd immunity, even in recent mathmatical model studies becomes effective around 45% if other measures are in place. Typically it's thought to start around 60%+.

So you would have to imagine 4m Swedes or so have had the virus for them to be reaching some sort of herd immunity effectiveness.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Population of 10m, herd immunity, even in recent mathmatical model studies becomes effective around 45% if other measures are in place. Typically it's thought to start around 60%+.

So you would have to imagine 4m Swedes or so have had the virus for them to be reaching some sort of herd immunity effectiveness.

I wonder if you'd expect to see a slow decline in infections on the way to that total as it becomes harder for the virus to spread.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I wonder if you'd expect to see a slow decline in infections on the way to that total as it becomes harder for the virus to spread.

Hard to know whether the slow decline is mainly due to behaviour and attitudes than herd immunity. I honestly don't know. Seems to be less and less written about the science.

 

[Yoda]

Population of 10m, herd immunity, even in recent mathmatical model studies becomes effective around 45% if other measures are in place. Typically it's thought to start around 60%+.

So you would have to imagine 4m Swedes or so have had the virus for them to be reaching some sort of herd immunity effectiveness.

Having just seen Dr John Campbell's latest upload, they could've been at 30-45% in May, so that increase in infections during June could may have pushed that up to the 60% threshold required, if at 45%.

Skip to 22:00 if it's doesn't start there.

 

[beorhthelm]

Population of 10m, herd immunity, even in recent mathmatical model studies becomes effective around 45% if other measures are in place. Typically it's thought to start around 60%+.

So you would have to imagine 4m Swedes or so have had the virus for them to be reaching some sort of herd immunity effectiveness.

this sort of stuff is worthless "if other measures are in place" means anything. could be 0% required if other measures in place are hard lockdown. concept of herd immunity assumes population is immune due to infection or vaccination.

 

[vegster]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-secures-early-access-to-90-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses-12032251

Another vaccine deal signed.

I can't find the posts but some of our resident EU fanatics were claiming HMG were"killing people" by not joining the EU vaccine group.

Instead we have bought options on a " World Beating " new vaccine... Its a bit like when Grayling spaffed all those millions on that company that had no ferrys.

 

[e77]

I am a minor official in the Labour party and think Boris Johnson is a charlatan but I think the one thing him and his government might have done ok with was backing the vaccine.